Filtered by Subscriptions: UK Economics Use setting UK Economics
Although the various measures of retail sales gave conflicting messages about the strength of high street spending in September, conditions off the high street have unambiguously improved. And in the near-term, we could see a further improvement. Car …
22nd October 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … UK Retail Sales (Sep.) …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … MPC Minutes (Oct.) …
21st October 2009
The narrow M0 measure of the money supply is still being kept high by the Bank of England’s asset purchases, but the broad money aggregates remain much weaker. That said, September’s figures on money and lending were the most encouraging in several …
20th October 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Public Finances (Sep.) …
The recent rise in consumer confidence may not be sustained. But for now, it is big-ticket items that seem most likely to benefit from the improvement in sentiment. … Big-ticket items benefit most from rising consumer …
19th October 2009
At its September meeting, the Monetary Policy Committee noted the importance of earnings growth for the inflation outlook and suggested that firms had in part squeezed pay to offset the effect of rising import costs. Without a further fall in sterling, …
14th October 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … UK Labour Data (Aug./Sep.) …
There are have been suggestions that the adverse impact on the economy of the coming fiscal tightening will be largely or wholly offset by the positive effects of the fall in the sterling exchange rate. Indeed, the Conservative Party has advanced this …
The recent improvement in consumer confidence might give Gordon Brown hope that he can emulate John Major and pull off an unlikely election victory in the aftermath of a deep recession. But much hinges on how the economic recovery develops and whether …
13th October 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … UK Consumer Prices (Sep.) …
Inflation is likely to pick up again in the next few months but, further ahead, the huge amount of spare capacity that is building up in the economy will bear down heavily on core price pressures. Even if the relationship between spare capacity and …
The measures put in place by governments to support their banking sectors and economies have helped to avert a full-scale financial meltdown and a 1930s-style economic depression. But the full costs of the measures will be felt for years, if not decades, …
12th October 2009
After a decade or more in which rapid increases in public spending have lent powerful support to the UK economy, the great squeeze is about to begin. … The great squeeze (Q4 …
9th October 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … UK Trade (Aug.) & Producer Prices (Sep.) …
The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) has made it clear that it wants to wait until November before re-assessing its programme of asset purchases, so today’s no-change decision was of little surprise. But with the economic recovery fragile and quantitative …
8th October 2009
The latest Nationwide consumer confidence survey supports the upbeat message from the other main measures of consumer sentiment. Whilst this will clearly boost hopes of a decent consumer recovery, the pick-up in confidence needs to be interpreted with …
7th October 2009
The proposed cuts in public spending set out by the Shadow Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne at the Conservative Party Conference in Manchester are likely to be just the first small step towards the biggest and most painful fiscal squeeze seen …
6th October 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … UK Industrial Production (Aug.) …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … UK CIPS/Markit Report on Services (Sep.) …
5th October 2009
Headlines over the past month have been dominated by the steps needed to reduce the public sector deficit, with Prime Minister Gordon Brown finally uttering the “c” word and talking about cutting government spending. The public finances have continued to …
2nd October 2009
The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) has made it fairly clear that it will wait until November before deciding whether to extend its quantitative easing (QE) programme again. This will coincide with the completion of the current set of asset purchases and …
1st October 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … CIPS/Markit manufacturing (Sep.) & Credit Conditions Survey (Q3) …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … UK Index of Services (Jul.), Cons. Conf. (Sep.) & Productivity (Q2) …
30th September 2009
The Q2 National Accounts suggested that households have gone some way to repairing their finances. However, we think that this process has much further to go. … Saving rate still some way from …
29th September 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … National Accounts (Q2), M4 & H’hold borrowing (Aug.) …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … MPC Minutes (Sep.) …
23rd September 2009
Despite the recent rise in share prices, firms’ pension funds remain in a sorry state. This is just one of the reasons why domestic demand is unlikely to help to drive the economic recovery. … Pension deficits another constraint on investment …
21st September 2009
There are still only tentative signs that quantitative easing (QE) is starting to boost the broad money supply. Money growth is certainly still below the rates consistent with a decent economic recovery. … Monetary Indicators Monitor …
18th September 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Public Finances (Aug.) …
The recent strength of high street spending has been impressive, but we may now be seeing the first signs of a slowdown. Even if the resilience lasts a bit longer, the outlook for next year looks pretty bleak. Not only is unemployment still rising and pay …
17th September 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … UK Retail Sales (Aug.) & CBI Ind. Trends (Sep.) …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … UK Labour Data (Jul./Aug.) …
16th September 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … UK Consumer Prices (Aug.) & MPC Testimony …
15th September 2009
With a significant pick-up in bank lending still looking unlikely, hopes are pinned on the economy achieving a so-called “creditless recovery.” This type of upturn has been seen before, both in the UK and abroad. However, the conditions for such a …
14th September 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Producer Prices (Aug.) …
11th September 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Halifax House Price Index (Aug) …
10th September 2009
Having only extended its quantitative easing programme last month, the Monetary Policy Committee was always likely to sit on its hands today. But with the economic outlook still highly uncertain and few signs that its previous asset purchases are having …
The recent improvement in the tone of the domestic economic data and some upward revisions to our global economic forecasts have led us to nudge our forecasts for UK GDP growth in 2010 a bit higher. But we still expect the UK recovery to lag behind those …
9th September 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … UK Trade (Jul.) …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … UK Industrial Production (Jul.) …
8th September 2009
August’s UK car registration figures showed that the scrappage scheme introduced in May is giving a sizeable boost to new car sales. But it is likely to give only a minimal boost to the overall economy. … Scrappage scheme boosts car sales – but wider …
4th September 2009
The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is unlikely to alter its quantitative easing (QE) programme at this meeting, given that it was only last month that it voted to extend the policy. Nonetheless, we see scope for the policy to be extended again later this …
3rd September 2009
