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This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Tentative signs households may be starting to spend a bit more freely February’s money and lending figures provide some green shoots of households starting to save less and spend …
31st March 2025
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Bumper rise in retail sales suggests households may be spending more freely Today’s deluge of data confirmed that the economy was weak even before the full effects of higher …
28th March 2025
For updated and more detailed analysis see here . Markets may be concerned about unfinished fiscal business Despite saying the “world is changing”, the Chancellor, Rachel Reeves, today just tinkered with fiscal policy. This left the impression that bigger …
26th March 2025
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Temporary dip in inflation may not help the BoE or Chancellor much The dip in CPI inflation from 3.0% in January to 2.8% in February (CE & consensus 2.9%, BoE 2.8%) is a bit of a …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Stubbornly high UK price pressures will add to BoE’s worries With the downside risks on activity shrinking and high price pressures being sustained, the Bank of England is …
24th March 2025
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Gloomy news ahead of next week’s spring fiscal event Although it will have no impact on the fiscal update next week, the significant overshoot in borrowing in February highlights …
21st March 2025
For an updated and more detailed version of this analysis, click here . Committee less committed to collection of rate cuts The Bank of England was always going to continue its cut-hold-cut-hold pattern by leaving interest rates at 4.50% today but, in the …
20th March 2025
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Labour market cooling rather collapsing With the labour market cooling rather than collapsing and wage growth stuck in the 5.5-6.0% range, we doubt the Bank of England will cut …
The 0.1% m/m fall in real GDP in January (consensus +0.1%, CE -0.2%) highlights the weakness of the economy before the full effects of the rise in business taxes and the uncertain global backdrop is felt. Only a small part of the fall in GDP in January …
14th March 2025
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Households still in the mood to save rather than spend The stagnating economy is partly because households appear to be continuing to save rather than spend, which is unlikely to …
3rd March 2025
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. PMIs point to businesses cutting employment to cope with higher taxes. The composite activity PMI was unchanged in February, which is consistent with the economy moving sideways …
21st February 2025
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Bad news continues for the Chancellor While January’s disappointing public finances figures may not be as bad as they first appear, they continue the run of bad news for the …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Supermarkets win, restaurants lose The leap in retail sales volumes in January shows that the retail sector shot out of the blocks at the start of the year. But some of that …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Climb in inflation to 3% will be uncomfortable for the BoE CPI inflation took another step up from 2.5% in December to 3.0% in January (consensus, BoE, CE 2.8%) and will probably …
19th February 2025
The decision by the US and Russia to “lay the groundwork” to end the war in Ukraine marks a potentially significant turning point after three years of conflict. Negotiations will take time and the macroeconomic implications will depend on the features of …
18th February 2025
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Weak employment, but wage growth still too high for BoE’s liking While there was a small improvement in labour market activity in December and January, employment growth remains …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Higher taxes and weaker global demand hold the economy back The 0.1% q/q rise in real GDP in Q4 (consensus, CE and BoE forecasts all -0.1%) leaves the economy all-but stagnating …
13th February 2025
For updated and more detail analysis see here . Dovish development adds downside risk to our forecast for Bank Rate to fall to 3.50% While cutting interest rates from 4.75% to 4.50% today, which was the third 25bps cut in seven months, the Bank of …
6th February 2025
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Downbeat outlook isn’t heavily weighing on households’ financial decisions December’s money and lending figures suggest the downbeat economic outlook isn’t weighing on households …
30th January 2025
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Stagflation concerns remain at the start of 2025 Despite the small rise in the composite activity PMI from 50.4 in December last year to 50.9 in January, at face value it is …
24th January 2025
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Figures not as bad as they appear but challenges remain Against a backdrop of slowing GDP growth and high interest rates, December’s overshoot in borrowing is further …
22nd January 2025
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. UK wage growth rebounds further, but there are signs of cooling further ahead While the further rise in regular private sector pay growth in November will cause the Bank of …
21st January 2025
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Disappointing Q4 not a sign of things to come December’s 0.3% m/m fall in retail sales volumes was worse than expected (consensus forecast +0.4% m/m, CE 0.0% m/m) and rounded off …
17th January 2025
Economy still at risk of contracting in Q4 While the smaller-than-expected 0.1% m/m rebound in GDP in November (consensus and CE forecast +0.2% m/m) offset the 0.1% m/m decline in activity in October, it’s clear that the economy has a bit less momentum …
16th January 2025
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Soft surprise boosts February rate cut odds While a lot of the surprisingly large fall in services inflation from 5.0% in November to 4.4% in December (CE forecast 4.8%, BoE …
15th January 2025
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Downbeat sentiment continues to weigh on households’ financial decisions November’s money and lending data suggests that households’ caution with their borrowing and saving ahead …
3rd January 2025
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Economy is going nowhere, although households in a decent position The downward revision to Q3 GDP from +0.1% q/q to 0.0% (consensus and CE 0.1%) isn’t quite as bad as it looks …
23rd December 2024
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Little festive cheer for retailers The 0.2% m/m rebound in retail sales volumes in November was slightly worse than expected (consensus +0.5% m/m) and leaves sales on course to …
20th December 2024
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Some good news, but extra revenue-raising measures may still be required Christmas has come early for the Chancellor with borrowing undershooting expectations in November. But …
For our more detailed analysis of the Bank's December policy announcement, see here . Dovish hold supports our view that rates will be cut further and faster than market pricing While the Bank of England left interest rates at 4.75% today, it struck a …
19th December 2024
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Further rebound rules out an early Christmas present from the BoE Coming on the back of the stronger-than-expected rise in wage growth in yesterday’s release, the further …
18th December 2024
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Rebound in wage growth will add to BoE’s inflation concerns The big rise in regular private sector pay growth in October will increase the Bank of England’s concerns about a …
17th December 2024
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. PMIs raise concerns over the prospect of stagflation Despite the composite PMI staying at 50.5 in December, at face value it’s consistent with the 0.1% q/q rise in real GDP in Q3 …
16th December 2024
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Economy at risk of contracting, partly due to the Budget The 0.1% m/m fall in GDP in October is the second such decline in a row and means there is every chance that the economy …
13th December 2024
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Pre-Budget jitters clearly influenced households’ financial decisions October’s money and lending figures suggest that Budget worries prompted households to become more cautious …
29th November 2024
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Budget and Trump may have triggered slowdown in activity At face value, the fall in the composite PMI from 51.8 in October to 49.9 in November suggests that real GDP growth is …
22nd November 2024
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Slow start to the golden quarter, but the outlook is improving The bigger-than-expected 0.7% m/m fall in retail sales in October (consensus forecast -0.3% m/m) suggests that …
We have updated this page with additional analysis since first publication. Disappointing borrowing figures highlight Chancellor’s lack of wiggle room October’s disappointing public finances figures underline the fiscal challenge that the Chancellor still …
21st November 2024
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Surprisingly big rebound suggests BoE will leave rates at 4.75% in December October’s surprisingly large rebound in CPI inflation from 1.7% to 2.3% (CE 2.1%, consensus & BoE …
20th November 2024
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Q3 GDP growth muted, Q4 will be better The 0.1% m/m contraction in GDP in September meant that the economy still grew by 0.1% q/q in Q3 (consensus and CE forecasts 0.2% q/q), but …
15th November 2024
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. BoE will look through rebound in pay growth Even though the rise in pay growth in September will probably be followed by a bigger gain in October, as the new 5-6% public sector …
12th November 2024
Watch a recording of our post-MPC online briefing here . Budget means Bank may not cut rates as fast and far While cutting interest rates from 5.00% to 4.75% today, the Bank of England implied that the Budget means rates will continue to fall only …
7th November 2024
Our more detailed and update analysis can be seen here . Despite large rise in taxes, Budget still boosts economy As the Budget loosens fiscal policy relative to previous plans, it is consistent with GDP growth perhaps being a bit stronger and interest …
30th October 2024
Budget has yet to affect households’ financial decisions Although consumer confidence has fallen ahead of the Budget, there is little evidence in September’s money and lending figures that Budget worries are having a big influence on households’ financial …
29th October 2024
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Budget concerns trigger slowdown in activity The fall in October’s composite flash PMI to an 11-month low suggests that real GDP growth, after what is shaping up to be a 0.2% q/q …
24th October 2024
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Borrowing disappoints but won’t prevent the Chancellor from raising investment While it is too late for September’s disappointing public finances figures to influence the amount …
22nd October 2024
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Households still increasing spending despite fears about tax rises September’s 0.3% m/m rise in retail sales volumes was stronger than expected (consensus forecast -0.3% m/m, CE …
18th October 2024
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Not quite as good as it looks The surprisingly large drop in CPI inflation in September increases the chances that the Bank of England will speed up the pace of interest rate …
16th October 2024
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Further easing in wage growth supports case for more interest rate cuts The further fall in wage growth in August, together with signs that the labour market continued to loosen …
15th October 2024
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Modest economic growth more likely than another recession this year The 0.2% m/m rise in GDP in August (consensus and Capital Economics 0.2%), which came on the back of the …
11th October 2024
