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Q2’s GDP figures showed that the Norwegian economy expanded at a steady pace and added to evidence that it is less likely to suffer from a “double dip” than some of its European counterparts. Looking ahead though, we expect the Norges Bank to tread …
23rd August 2011
The Icelandic central bank’s surprise interest rate hike today was in stark contrast to the increasingly dovish tone of other central banks around the world. The move reflected a sharp increase in inflation related to the weakness of the krona. But as the …
17th August 2011
The Swiss National Bank has not exhausted all options to stem the franc’s appreciation and might yet try capital controls or direct intervention in currency markets. But internationally co-ordinated intervention would probably be necessary to make a real …
11th August 2011
The Swiss National Bank’s decision to cut interest rates to almost zero and embark on a renewed bout of quantitative easing to stem the franc’s appreciation looks pretty bold. But we still think that the Bank will be unable to fight the strong upward …
3rd August 2011
Q2’s GDP figures confirm that Sweden continues to expand at breakneck speed. Although growth will ease in the second half of the year, Sweden will remain one of Europe’s top performers. … Swedish GDP (Q2 …
29th July 2011
The Swedish Riksbank once again raised interest rates and reiterated that it expects more to come.While we expect further hikes in the short term, we think that the pace of monetary tightening willbe a little more gradual than the Bank’s forecasts …
5th July 2011
As expected, the Swiss National Bank left its interest rate target unchanged at today’s meeting. With the Bank striking a slightly more downbeat tone in its statement and the Swiss franc’s strength keeping inflation subdued, we continue to think that a …
16th June 2011
The dust clouds may have cleared but economic gloom continues to hang over Iceland. While the economy returned to growth in Q1, conditions for consumers remain grim and large risks remain over plans to continue the lifting of capital controls. … Economic …
8th June 2011
The Swiss economy expanded only modestly in the first quarter of this year. With the strong franc likely to hit exports over the coming quarters, growth looks likely to remain fairly lacklustre. … Swiss GDP (Q1 …
31st May 2011
Q1’s GDP figures confirmed that Sweden’s impressive recovery continued at the start of this year and will ensure that the Riksbank will continue to raise interest rates at a faster pace than other central banks in the region. … Swedish GDP (Q1 …
27th May 2011
Despite growing domestic price pressures, the Swiss National Bank left its interest rate target at 0.25% at today’s meeting. While the Bank’s tone was a bit more upbeat than expected, the inflation forecast remains subdued, supporting our view that …
17th March 2011
As expected, the Swedish Riksbank responded to the economy’s ongoing robust revival by raising interest rates and revising up its interest rate forecast. Nonetheless, we still think that weaker than anticipated growth this year and the strong currency …
15th February 2011
The joke about the differences between Iceland and Ireland (one letter and about six months) might provide some encouragement to the latter in the light of recent signs that Iceland is turning the corner. But the economy still faces major challenges. … …
4th January 2011
The Swedish Riksbank responded to the recent strong economic data by raising interest rates today for the fourth time since July. But while further rate hikes are inevitable, we expect monetary policy to remain very accommodative for the foreseeable …
15th December 2010
Despite the krona’s recent strength, the Swedish Riksbank raised interest rates for the third time in four months. Although further hikes are inevitable, we expect the pace of tightening to ease sharply next year and for interest rates to remain …
26th October 2010
The Swedish Riksbank’s decision to raise interest rates for a second meeting running reflects concerns that domestic imbalances may be building. Further hikes seem likely in the near term, but the pace of monetary tightening should ease next year as the …
2nd September 2010
The widely predicted interest rate hike by the Swedish Riksbank from 0.25% to 0.5% made it thesecond western European central bank to tighten interest rates during the current cycle. But withother parts of Europe set for a much larger fiscal squeeze, we …
1st July 2010
The SNB’s hints that it will scale back its currency intervention suggest that the franc is set to appreciate more sharply and interbank interest rates should rise back towards the Bank’s target of 0.25%. But with growth set to slow before long, we doubt …
17th June 2010
Switzerland’s low levels of public and private sector debt suggest that it will continue to out-grow the euro-zone over the next couple of years. But it will suffer from strong trade links with the region, particularly if the Swiss National Bank fails to …
19th May 2010
With the Norwegian economic recovery beginning to look a little more fragile, the Norges Bank has begun to strike a more cautious tone. Although the Bank is likely to raise interest rates again later this year, monetary policy will remain accommodative …
24th March 2010
The Swiss National Bank’s assurance that it will intervene to prevent the franc from appreciating too much further is encouraging. But intervention now might not be as successful as in the recent past and a further appreciation of the franc remains a key …
11th January 2010
By announcing an end to its corporate bond purchases, the Swiss National Bank has become the latest to start phasing out its unconventional policy support. But its downbeat forecasts for economic activity suggest that it will not raise official interest …
10th December 2009
Finland has been hit particularly hard by the global economic downturn, faring almost as badly as Ireland. Nonetheless, the foundations are in place for a reasonably strong recovery, suggesting that Finland could be one of the euro-zone’s strongest …
8th December 2009
The recent surge in Swedish and Norwegian property prices has fuelled concerns that both economies’ central banks may be forced to ratchet up interest rates in order to prevent housing market bubbles from developing. But we doubt that house prices will …
17th November 2009
The Swedish Riksbank’s latest economic forecasts suggest that a tightening in monetary policy remains a long way off. This supports our view that interest rates are unlikely to rise as quickly or as early as the markets expect. … Swedish Riksbank in no …
22nd October 2009
With Norway now on the path to recovery, the Norges Bank has begun to prepare the ground for future interest rate hikes. But while the Bank will probably tighten later this year, we do not expect rates to rise as rapidly as the markets currently envisage. …
23rd September 2009
After leaving the target for three-month interest rates at just 0.25% today, the SNB struck a slightly less pessimistic tone than it had previously. But while the Bank has revised up its inflation forecast alittle, a modest economic recovery will ensure …
17th September 2009
The decision by the Swedish Riksbank to keep interest rates on hold at 0.25% and signal that rates may remain unchanged for around another year supports our view that markets may have got ahead of themselves in forecasting rate hikes by early 2010. … …
3rd September 2009
The latest comments from the Swiss National Bank (SNB) confirm that it will maintain its strong policy stimulus for the foreseeable future, helping to reduce the significant risk of a sustained period of deflation. But we still expect the Swiss economy to …
19th August 2009
July’s pick-up in the Swiss manufacturing PMI was an encouraging sign for the industrial sector, as is the Swiss National Bank’s continued intervention to prevent a renewed appreciation of the franc. But with exports and industrial output yet to respond …
3rd August 2009
Despite tentative signs of green shoots appearing, the Swedish Riksbank reduced interest rates to 0.25% and remains committed to keeping them at this rate for a prolonged period. But for now at least, the Bank appears reluctant to follow the Fed and Bank …
2nd July 2009
The SNB’s pledge to go on purchasing large quantities of corporate bonds while providing generous liquidity to the banking sector and intervening ‘decisively’ in currency markets has left it among the central banks acting most aggressively to support the …
18th June 2009
Norway’s relatively mild downturn should ensure that the latest 25bp interest rate reduction by the Norges Bank is probably the last in the current cycle. But we still think that the Bank will not tighten monetary policy as quickly as its own interest …
17th June 2009
Today’s announcement that the Swedish Riksbank is to borrow €3bn from the ECB confirms that, while the green shoots of recovery may be starting to emerge in parts of the global economy, the Baltic crisis remains a major weight on the Swedish economy’s …
10th June 2009
The Nordic authorities’ handling of the early 1990s banking crises has since been hailed as being close to best practice. Nonetheless, given that a global economic upturn was a key factor behind the subsequent Nordic economic recovery, merely following …
20th May 2009
Today’s further cut in interest rates by the Norges Bank has brought rates close to their likely trough. But with the risk of deflation remaining pretty small and the economy still on track for one of the mildest recessions in Europe, the Bank is unlikely …
6th May 2009
The Swedish Riksbank’s decision to commit to a prolonged period of low interest rates to help kick start the economy is clearly a step in the right direction, but this alone may not be enough. We think that the Bank will soon be forced to follow the lead …
21st April 2009
The Norges Bank’s decision to cut interest rates by a further 50 basis shows that it remains committedto preventing a major economic downturn. But with the economy set to experience a much milderrecession that its European neighbours, the Bank is unlikely …
25th March 2009
The SNB’s decision to cut interest rates to 0.25%, provide more liquidity to the banking sector, intervene in currency markets and purchase bonds from the private sector, pushes it towards the top of the table of central banks acting aggressively to stem …
12th March 2009
The record loss reported by UBS yesterday provides further support for our long-held view that the Swiss economy will suffer heavily from its reliance on the financial services sector. This suggests that the franc is unlikely to renew its recent …
11th February 2009
The recent run of dreadful news from Sweden has forced the Riksbank to rip up its previous interest rate forecasts and cut interest rates from 2.0% to 1.0%. We now expect the economic recession to prompt interest rates to fall to zero or thereabouts by …
The decision by the Swedish Riksbank to slash interest rates by 175 basis points highlights the degree to which the economic outlook has deteriorated. With the downturn set to worsen next year, further interest rate cuts seem likely. … Swedish interest …
4th December 2008
Iceland’s $4.6bn IMF-led rescue package will provide the economy with much-needed funds to help cover its external financing requirement. But it will not be enough to prevent a severe and prolonged economic slump. … Iceland: Outlook bleak, despite IMF …
20th November 2008
The Norges Bank today cut interest rates for the second time this month and signalled that furthercuts are to come. But we continue to expect stronger economic fundamentals to ensure that rates fallless sharply than in most other developed economies next …
29th October 2008
The franc’s latest appreciation to a record high against the euro appears to reflect the weakness of the euro-zone economy more than Swiss domestic factors. But the franc’s strength is yet another reason to expect the Swiss economy to weaken significantly …
28th October 2008
The decision by the Swedish Riksbank to cut interest rates to 3.75%, the second 50 basis points cut this month, clearly shows that the Bank’s full attention is now on preventing a major economic slowdown. Given that the bank had hiked rates as recently as …
23rd October 2008
The Norges Bank’s decision to cut interest rates for the first time in more than four years was drivenby the recent events in global financial markets. But with the outlook for economic activitydeteriorating and inflation worries easing, further interest …
15th October 2008
The Icelandic authorities are fighting tooth and nail to restore confidence in the ailing economy and crumbling banking system. But it seems inevitable that the economy is set for a prolonged slowdown, with a significant deterioration in the public …
7th October 2008
The decision by the Riksbank to raise interest rates from 4.50% to 4.75% clearly shows that it remains concerned about the emergence of ”second-round inflation” effects. But while the Bank did signal that the current economic slowdown should ensure that …
4th September 2008
Upbeat comments from Swiss National Bank Chairman Jean-Pierre Roth in this morning’s press are atodds with our own view. While it is true that some aspects of the Swiss economy appear robust fornow, we still expect a sharp downturn in financial services …
19th August 2008
