Filtered by Subscriptions: Nordic & Swiss Economics Use setting Nordic & Swiss Economics
Despite January’s sharp fall in the Swiss KOF Economic Barometer, the indicator is still broadly consistent with annual GDP growth picking up to around 2%. With exporters benefiting from a weaker franc, the outlook for growth is bright. But with inflation …
30th January 2018
While today’s Norges Bank announcement implies that it still expects to raise interest rates this autumn, we think that below-target inflation and weakness in the housing market will cause the Bank to wait until next year. Along with our forecast for oil …
25th January 2018
The Economic Tendency Survey suggests that the Swedish economy lost some momentum at the start of 2018. But this is unlikely to prevent the Riksbank from tightening policy later this year. … Sweden Econ. Tend. Survey (Jan.) & Unemploy. …
Prospects for the Nordic economies and Switzerland are strong, but there are divergent outlooks for monetary policy. In Sweden, inflation is already close to the Riksbank’s target and, with capacity constraints starting to bite, inflationary pressures are …
22nd January 2018
With consumer price inflation set to rise gradually, but house prices falling, we think that the Norges Bank will reiterate next week that interest rates will not rise until the autumn. We suspect that it will ultimately wait until 2019 before tightening …
18th January 2018
The three major Nordic and Swiss central banks met in December and provided very different messages about the outlook for monetary policy in their respective countries. First, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) left policy unchanged and, despite the franc’s …
15th January 2018
Swedish policymakers will be discouraged by the fact that the decline in inflation in December was due to slower inflation for domestic goods and services. But with resource utilisation strong, domestic inflation looks set to pick up this year. We think …
12th January 2018
While the Riksbank’s early bond reinvestments will make policy slightly more expansionary in the short term, the minutes of December’s meeting suggest that the decision to bring forward reinvestments was taken mainly to avoid liquidity problems. There was …
10th January 2018
Despite December’s jump in inflation in Norway, underlying price pressures remain subdued. With house price inflation falling further into negative territory, we suspect that it will be a long time before the Norges Bank begins to raise interest rates. …
While Swiss headline inflation was unchanged in December, there was a welcome rise in the core rate. But the big picture is that inflationary pressures remain subdued, so the Swiss National Bank will stick to its ultra-accommodative monetary policy …
8th January 2018
After bringing its net asset purchases to a close last month, the Riksbank reiterated that it expects to raise interest rates in September this year. The Bank’s track record suggests that this forecast should be taken with a generous pinch of salt; …
4th January 2018
December’s Swedish and Norwegian manufacturing PMIs suggest that industry in both countries ended 2017 on a strong note. But only in Sweden do we expect healthy economic growth to put sustained upward pressure on inflation this year. … Manufacturing PMIs …
2nd January 2018
The Swedish and Norwegian central banks delivered fairly hawkish assessments of the outlook for monetary policy this month, but that did not stop their currencies from depreciating. Meanwhile, the Swiss franc has weakened to its lowest level since the …
21st December 2017
The Riksbank’s announcement that it will end its net asset purchases this month is the beginning of a shift towards tighter monetary policy in Sweden. We think that it will ultimately raise interest rates more quickly than most other analysts anticipate, …
20th December 2017
The Norges Bank left its key policy rate unchanged after its meeting today and brought the date at which it forecasts raising interest rates forward to autumn 2018. We think that it will wait until late 2019. … Interest rate hikes in Norway still a long …
14th December 2017
The Swiss National Bank today reiterated that the Swiss franc remained “highly valued” and that it still needed to keep interest rates at rock-bottom levels and intervene in the currency markets as necessary. And with inflation set to remain low, we …
While there are some reasons to think that the Riksbank will extend its quantitative easing programme when it meets next week, we think that policymakers will let it expire. We also think that the Bank will keep its forward guidance on interest rates …
13th December 2017
Following today’s decision to keep interest rates unchanged, the Central Bank of Iceland (CBI) noted that looser fiscal policy is a short-term risk to the monetary policy outlook. While we expect the new Government to announce a small fiscal expansion in …
The Nordic and Swiss Q3 GDP data revealed large differences between the best and worst performing economies. A quarterly contraction of 0.6% meant that Denmark underperformed the rest of the pack by a large margin. The drop in GDP was mainly due to a …
12th December 2017
Macro-prudential policies to cool the housing markets in Switzerland and Norway will allow their central banks to keep monetary policy loose, boosting inflation from its current low rates. By contrast, inflationary pressures in Sweden suggest that tighter …
Swedish inflation was higher than the Riksbank forecast in November, supporting our view that next week the Riksbank will not announce an extension of its asset purchase programme into 2018. … Swedish Consumer Prices …
Inflation in Norway has probably reached a trough, but it is unlikely to rebound strongly. With house price inflation also slowing very sharply, we suspect that at its meeting on Thursday the Norges Bank will push back the date at which it forecasts …
11th December 2017
Very strong Icelandic growth in Q3 somewhat overstates the health of the economy, given that consumer spending was stagnant and exports slumped. That said, surveys bode well for the outlook. … Icelandic GDP …
8th December 2017
The Norges Bank is very unlikely to change its policy rate next week, but we think that it will push back the date at which it forecasts raising interest rates to the end of 2019. After all, the mainland economy is expanding at a decent pace, but spare …
7th December 2017
Although the Swiss franc has weakened further over the past three months, we doubt that the Swiss National Bank (SNB) will sound any more relaxed about the exchange rate in its policy statement next week. Admittedly, the ECB’s gradual shift towards policy …
At its last meeting in November, the Central Bank of Iceland (CBI) kept policy on hold. Nothing has happened since then to alter our view that interest rates will remain unchanged until 2019. … Icelandic interest rates to remain on …
6th December 2017
November’s rise in Swiss inflation reflected both higher energy prices and a weaker franc. But with inflation still very weak, we doubt that the Swiss National Bank will decide to alter its ultra-loose monetary policy stance at its meeting next week or …
In this Watch, we evaluate the performance of Nordic and Swiss economies in 2017 and set out our key calls for next year. … Reviewing 2017 and looking ahead to …
5th December 2017
Concerns about the prospect of a house price correction were felt across Swedish markets in November, with the krona slumping, bond yields declining and equities falling. Most other Nordic and Swiss bond yields also declined, while currencies generally …
1st December 2017
After a weak first half of 2017, Switzerland’s economic recovery strengthened in Q3. And the latest leading indicators provide hope that GDP growth will accelerate further in the coming quarters. … Swiss & Danish GDP (Q3), Swiss KOF …
30th November 2017
Despite a slowdown in consumer spending growth in Q3, Swedish GDP growth remained strong due to a sharp pick-up in investment. Meanwhile, November’s rise in the Economic Tendency Indicator suggests that annual GDP growth will accelerate further in Q4. … …
29th November 2017
We think that concerns about the Swedish housing market are overblown. While house prices are likely to edge down further in the coming months, we expect them to stabilise next year. … Swedish house prices to stabilise next …
24th November 2017
Finland’s economic prospects look brighter than they have for several years. So as the ECB gradually scales back its stimulus over the next few years, we think that Finland’s government bond yields will rise only gradually, remaining very close to those …
21st November 2017
House price inflation in several Nordic economies is slowing, and in some cases sharply. In Sweden housing inflation fell to 6.7% in October, its slowest in four years. And in Stockholm, where prices have risen much more than the national average in …
16th November 2017
Following today’s decision to keep interest rates unchanged, the Central Bank of Iceland (CBI) appears to have reached the end of its loosening cycle. We expect the Bank to keep rates on hold until the second half of 2019, when it is likely to respond to …
15th November 2017
As October’s drop in Swedish inflation was almost entirely due to energy, we are not convinced that it means QE will be extended in December. Meanwhile, following stronger-than-expected GDP growth in both mainland Norway and Finland, the outlook for …
14th November 2017
The sharp decline in inflation over the past 15 months has largely run its course, but it is unlikely to rebound strongly. We think that core inflation will remain well below the Norges Bank’s 2.5% target over the coming years, so interest rate hikes are …
10th November 2017
Forecasters have been wrong-footed this year by the Central Bank of Iceland’s (CBI) rate cuts. This appears to be because the CBI has started to put more emphasis on a different inflation measure, and the cuts may also have been motivated by …
9th November 2017
As today’s minutes show few signs that policymakers are concerned about the economy overheating, we have pushed back our forecast for a rate rise to September 2018. But we still expect rates to be increased at a faster pace than the Riksbank or markets …
Recent declines in Norwegian house prices have caused some concern, but we think that the worst fears are overblown. After all, prices are falling for the “right” reasons. And we do not expect a wave of mortgage defaults that would trouble the banks or …
8th November 2017
October’s weak Swiss inflation data support our view that SNB interest rate hikes are a very distant prospect. Elsewhere, Swedish production data suggest that quarterly GDP growth slowed in Q3. … Swiss CPI (Oct.) & Swedish Production Index. …
6th November 2017
At least four parties will be required to form a majority government following Iceland’s election, so coalition negotiations are set to take a number of months. As the left-wing parties performed worse than expected, the most likely outcome appears to be …
1st November 2017
October’s Swiss, Swedish and Norwegian manufacturing PMIs are consistent with strong growth in industrial output. But only in Sweden do we expect this to put sustained upward pressure on inflation. … Manufacturing PMIs …
In October, a combination of rising bond yields in the US and lower bond yields at home pushed Nordic and Swiss currencies down against the dollar. Weaker exchange rates, as well as decent economic growth and strong monetary policy support, gave equities …
30th October 2017
While the Swedish Economic Tendency Indicator edged down in October, the sharp rise in the consumer confidence index means that the survey now paints a more balanced picture of the economy. And with consumers’ inflation expectations reaching a five-year …
27th October 2017
While both the Riksbank and the Norges Bank kept policy unchanged today, the outlooks for monetary policy in the two countries are very different. We think that policy in Sweden will be tightened early next year, sooner than the Riksbank’s guidance …
26th October 2017
Economic prospects for the Nordic and Swiss economies are fairly bright. Although Switzerland had a disappointing start to the year in terms of GDP growth, the surveys are universally positive about the coming quarters, suggesting that the recent weakness …
25th October 2017
The Riksbank is unlikely to shift its policy stance until it sees firmer signals of the outlook for policy in the euro-zone. So despite above-target inflation in Sweden, we do not expect the Riksbank to announce any changes to its policies or forward …
19th October 2017
The recent slowdown in the housing market suggests that there is scope for monetary policy to be looser over the coming years than the Norges Bank currently anticipates. That said, we don’t expect any changes in policy, or the Bank’s forward guidance, at …
The inflation data for September suggest that underlying price pressures remained subdued in most of the Nordic and Swiss countries, apart from Sweden. … Inflation pressures weak apart from in …
13th October 2017
