Filtered by Subscriptions: Nordic & Swiss Economics Use setting Nordic & Swiss Economics
The small rise in the KOF Economic Barometer in April is consistent with continued healthy growth in Switzerland. But with inflation still very weak, we expect the SNB to strong monetary policy support in place even as other central banks begin to tighten …
30th April 2018
Amid escalating international trade tensions, the Nordic and Swiss currencies depreciated across the board in April. Weaker exchange rates helped to give equities a boost, while the main bourses in Norway and to a lesser extent Finland also benefitted …
27th April 2018
The Norges Bank is unlikely to respond to recent weak data by altering its forward guidance next week. But we still think that it will ultimately tighten policy a little more slowly than generally expected. … Norges Bank to keep guidance unchanged, for …
26th April 2018
The Riksbank now expects interest rates to remain unchanged until Q4. We think that the Bank will raise rates gradually this year and next, before adopting a faster pace of tightening in 2020. … Riksbank delays interest rate …
The safe haven Swiss franc has depreciated steadily over the past couple of months despite geopolitical worries and rising protectionism. We think that the franc will continue to weaken as the ECB pushes ahead with policy normalisation while weak …
25th April 2018
While the Nordics and Switzerland seem to have made slow starts to 2018, the outlook for these economies is generally pretty bright. Nevertheless, healthy rates of economic growth will push up inflation at different speeds in different countries. We think …
20th April 2018
At next week’s meeting, the Riksbank is likely to cut its GDP growth and inflation forecasts. This leads us to expect the Bank to signal that interest rate rises will come later than policymakers previously thought, but we still expect an increase this …
19th April 2018
Both the Swiss franc and the Swedish krona have depreciated by almost 1.5% against the euro over the past month. This has left the franc trading at its weakest level since the Swiss National Bank abandoned its cap on the exchange rate just over three …
13th April 2018
Although headline inflation increased to the Riksbank’s target in March, inflation excluding energy remained somewhat weaker. At its April meeting, we expect the Bank to signal that it will raise interest rates later than it previously anticipated, but …
12th April 2018
March’s weak inflation data in Norway strengthen the case for the Norges Bank to move only very slowly towards tightening monetary policy. We suspect that it will wait until 2019 to raise interest rates, later than the Bank and investors currently …
10th April 2018
Despite February’s rise, Swedish private sector production growth appears to have slowed in Q1. But economic growth should remain healthy this year and inflationary pressures are building, so we still expect the Riksbank to raise interest rates in the …
5th April 2018
The renewed rise in Swiss inflation in March will be welcomed by the Swiss National Bank. But with pipeline price pressures still very subdued, we doubt that the SNB will alter its ultra-accommodative policy stance any time soon. … Swiss Consumer Prices …
The activity surveys across the Nordics and in Switzerland generally weakened in Q1. But they were still fairly strong, so on the whole these economies seem to have performed reasonably well in the first three months of 2018. … How did the Nordic & Swiss …
3rd April 2018
In March, equity prices and bond yields in the Nordics and Switzerland were pushed down by concerns about US trade policy, while exchange rate movements were more mixed. Looking ahead, we expect yields to rise while equities continue to struggle. … Trump …
29th March 2018
Despite falling in March, the Swiss KOF Economic Barometer is consistent with annual GDP growth remaining fairly healthy. But with inflation subdued, we expect the SNB to keep interest rates on hold until 2020. … Swiss KOF …
The Swedish economy has lost some momentum of late, but growth still looks set to be healthy. And with inflationary pressures gradually rising, we expect the Riksbank to raise interest rates this year. … Sweden Econ. Tend. Survey (Mar.), Trade & PPI …
27th March 2018
The Swiss National Bank is likely to reduce its currency interventions further over the next couple of years as other central banks start to normalise policy and the Swiss economy is better able to withstand a franc appreciation. But an outright reduction …
22nd March 2018
While the Central Bank of Iceland’s forecasts imply that it intends to scale back its controls on foreign investment later this year, we think that it will end up leaving them unchanged until 2020. … When will Iceland drop its remaining capital …
21st March 2018
The Nordic central banks are all moving towards tightening monetary policy, albeit at different speeds. We think that higher interest rates will come first in Sweden, pushing up government bond yields there fairly quickly. By contrast, the Swiss National …
20th March 2018
The latest inflation data in the Nordic countries and Switzerland have generally been quite weak. Indeed, inflation in Switzerland slowed to a five-month low of 0.6% in February. The core rate was unchanged from the previous month at 0.5%, while the rate …
16th March 2018
Following the recent reduction in its inflation target, the Norges Bank now clearly expects to begin raising interest rates this year. However, we think that it will tighten monetary policy more slowly than investors anticipate. Along with our forecast …
15th March 2018
Despite sounding a slightly more positive tone on the economy, the Swiss National Bank today reiterated that the Swiss franc remained “highly valued” and that it still needed to keep interest rates at rock-bottom levels and intervene in the currency …
While the Central Bank of Iceland left policy unchanged today, it also acknowledged that inflation expectations are rising. We expect higher actual and expected inflation to prompt the Bank to raise interest rates in the next two years, contrary to the …
14th March 2018
With Swedish inflation unchanged at a joint 10-month low in February, we see the Riksbank changing its forward guidance next month to signal that it will raise interest rates later than it previously forecast. But we still think that the Bank will tighten …
The Norges Bank’s new inflation target strengthens the case for tighter monetary policy. But we think that the Bank will move very cautiously. … How big a deal is the new lower inflation …
9th March 2018
Inflation in Norway rose quite sharply in February, but we do not think that it is about to surge. Meanwhile, Icelandic GDP growth would have been negative in Q4 was it not for a one-off intellectual property payment which boosted exports. Nevertheless, …
In an environment of global uncertainty, the Swiss National Bank will be wary of exacerbating any upward pressure on the safe haven franc when it meets on 15th March. Admittedly, its forecast for inflation to surpass 2% by 2020 suggests that it may soon …
8th March 2018
Little has changed since the Central Bank of Iceland’s (CBI) last policy meeting, so we expect it to keep policy unchanged next week. Later this year, we see the Bank raising interest rates. … Central Bank of Iceland on hold for time …
7th March 2018
After a tough start to 2018, we think that equities in the Nordic countries and Switzerland will continue to struggle over the next couple of years. But their performance will be far from uniform. … Will Nordic and Swiss equities continue to …
The further decline in Swiss inflation in February to a five-month low will add to the Swiss National Bank’s caution ahead of its monetary policy meeting next week. Indeed, subdued inflation is likely to mean that the Bank maintains its accommodative …
6th March 2018
While all of the Nordic currencies and the Swiss franc depreciated against the dollar in February, weak Swedish inflation data and dovish comments from the Riksbank meant that the drop in the krona was by far the largest. Meanwhile, many countries’ …
1st March 2018
The Swiss economy ended 2017 on a fairly strong note and the surveys paint a positive picture for 2018. But with inflation set to remain subdued, we think that the SNB will wait until 2020 to raise rates. … Swiss GDP (Q4) & Retail Sales …
February’s Swiss, Swedish and Norwegian manufacturing PMIs point to continued strong growth. But this only seems to be causing underlying inflationary pressure to build in Sweden. … Manufacturing PMIs …
Sweden, Finland and Denmark all grew strongly in Q4 last year. While growth in Sweden and Finland is likely to outpace that in Demark in 2018, the big picture is that the outlook for each economy is bright. … Sweden, Finland & Denmark GDP …
28th February 2018
The recent softening of the Economic Tendency Survey suggests that the Swedish economy lost some momentum at the start of 2018. But the survey still implies that growth will remain strong. … Sweden Econ. Tendency Survey (Feb.) & Trade …
27th February 2018
In light of weak inflation data earlier this week and the dovishness of today’s Riksbank minutes, we expect the Bank to signal at April’s meeting that it will raise interest rates later than its current guidance implies. However, we still think that …
23rd February 2018
Icelandic growth is set to hold up well with tourism booming despite the strength of the króna and with the financial imbalances that caused the previous crisis largely resolved. But inflation is a threat. If unions secure large wage gains in negotiations …
21st February 2018
January’s drop in Swedish inflation was entirely due to changes in the weights used to calculate the price index. While inflation looks set to be lower in 2018 than we previously anticipated, the Riksbank still needs to raise interest rates this year to …
20th February 2018
Although the franc has strengthened in recent weeks, the big picture is that the currency is over 5% weaker than this time a year ago. Currency valuation measures paint a mixed picture but our view is that the franc is still a little stronger than fair …
15th February 2018
Given that the Riksbank called time on its net asset purchases just one meeting ago, it was always unlikely that the Bank would make any major policy changes today. In order to test the water ahead of repo rate rises later this year, in April we expect …
14th February 2018
The official data suggest that the Nordic & Swiss economies recorded fairly mixed performances at the end of last year. So far, only Norway has published national accounts data for Q4. This release revealed a healthy quarterly growth rate for the mainland …
13th February 2018
Following January’s decline, there is little chance that Swiss inflation will rise much in the next few months. And later in the year, inflation is likely to drop back as exchange rate effects unwind. … Swiss and Danish Consumer Prices …
12th February 2018
Norway’s mainland GDP recorded another strong expansion in Q4, rounding off a pretty good year for the economy. However, inflation slowed sharply in January, highlighting that price pressures remain subdued. As a result, we think that the Norges Bank will …
9th February 2018
With the Riksbank on track to raise interest rates this year, it is likely to test the water soon by dropping its pledge to loosen policy further if necessary. But as inflation expectations in Sweden have softened in recent months, we suspect that the …
8th February 2018
The franc’s downward trend went into reverse last month and turbulence in global financial markets has since threatened to push it up further. In the event of a sustained rout in equity markets, the safe haven currency would probably appreciate. But as …
7th February 2018
As the recent rise in inflation has been due to temporary exchange rate effects, it was little surprise that the Central Bank of Iceland left policy unchanged today. But with further rises in inflation set to put upward pressure on inflation expectations …
Despite falling in December, Swedish private production growth accelerated over Q4. With the economy’s strong performance causing inflationary pressures to build, the Riksbank remains on track to raise interest rates this year. … Swedish Private …
6th February 2018
Following developments in other developed economies this year, Nordic and Swiss currencies have appreciated while equity prices and bond yields have risen. Norway’s currency has outperformed, largely thanks to the rise in oil prices. But we doubt that …
1st February 2018
Inflation pressures seem to be rising faster than we had expected. As a result, we now see the Central Bank of Iceland raising interest rates this year. … Central Bank of Iceland to raise rates later this …
January’s Swiss, Swedish and Norwegian manufacturing PMIs generally point to strong growth. But only in Sweden do we expect this to feed through to significant and sustained inflation pressure. … Manufacturing PMIs …
