Filtered by Subscriptions: Nordic & Swiss Economics Use setting Nordic & Swiss Economics
The latest data paint a mixed picture of the performance of the Swiss and Nordic economies at the end of 2018, with signs of weakness in Switzerland and Sweden offset in part by robust quarterly GDP growth in Norway and Denmark. However, we think that GDP …
21st February 2019
The weaker-than-expected outturn for Swedish inflation in January underlines our view that the Riksbank will be in no rush to raise interest rates again. Indeed, with core inflation remaining stubbornly subdued, and increasing downside risks to economic …
19th February 2019
The Riksbank delivered a slightly more hawkish message than anticipated at its meeting this week, but we still think that the chance of an interest rate hike this year is falling. Meanwhile, despite Denmark and Finland both performing very well in Q4, we …
15th February 2019
The Riksbank seems to be in denial about the weakening of Sweden’s economy. While it reiterated today that it expects to raise interest rates in the second half of this year, with the economy performing poorly and core inflation showing little sign of …
13th February 2019
We think that inflation in Switzerland will fall below zero by the middle of the year, so the SNB is likely to stick to its very dovish policy stance. By contrast, we think that inflation in Norway will rise and the Norges Bank will raise interest rates …
11th February 2019
At its meeting next week, the Riksbank is likely to deliver a dovish message, perhaps hinting that even the single rate hike that it has pencilled in for this year is now in doubt. … Riksbank to strike a dovish note next …
8th February 2019
While the Swiss franc has not benefitted much from recent upheaval in markets, including yesterday’s sell-off in US equities, it has been very stable. We expect this to remain the case in 2019, as slowing global growth and concerns about Italy support the …
Norway’s economy ended 2018 on a high note, but we doubt that this will last. We suspect that lower oil prices and weaker activity elsewhere in Europe will weigh on growth, prompting the Norges Bank to tighten monetary policy more slowly than it currently …
The Danish krone is now close to the centre of the central bank’s exchange rate band – a level at which it has in the past unilaterally raised interest rates. However, we think it is likely to leave rates on hold throughout this year and 2020, not least …
7th February 2019
The Central Bank of Iceland had hinted only a few weeks ago that interest rate hikes were likely at the start of this year, but the recent economic data have been weak enough for it to hold fire today. It maintained a hawkish bias in its statement, but …
6th February 2019
Manufacturing PMIs for Switzerland, Sweden and Denmark, released on Friday, dropped sharply in January, suggesting that the recent weakness in the euro-zone is spilling over to its neighbours. Next week, we expect rising inflation and inflation …
1st February 2019
Norway’s housing market struggled last year but looks set to do better in 2019. By contrast, construction in Sweden is likely to contract this year, causing the economy to slow sharply. … Norway housing market stabilising, Sweden …
31st January 2019
January’s surveys suggest that growth has slowed sharply in both Switzerland and Sweden. The SNB will see this as supporting its ultra-accommodative policy. But for the Riksbank it creates downside risks to its forecast for a rate hike in the second half …
30th January 2019
The turn towards a slightly more dovish tone by the ECB at its meeting on Thursday will have made policymakers at the SNB and the Riksbank even more hesitant to hike rates anytime soon. Next week, we expect economic sentiment indicators for Switzerland, …
25th January 2019
Following today’s monetary policy announcement, the Norges Bank is almost certain to raise interest rates in March. But we think that it is still too optimistic about prospects for the economy this year and, as a result, its tightening cycle will be much …
24th January 2019
We expect GDP growth in Switzerland and across the Nordics to slow this year and next. As a result, price pressures should generally remain subdued and central banks look set to raise interest rates very gradually. We think that the Norges Bank and …
21st January 2019
Sweden’s new government has agreed to cut income taxes and relax labour laws. It has also brought an end to four months of political uncertainty, at least for now. But we suspect that all this will have little impact on the economy. … Swedish fiscal boost …
18th January 2019
The latest manufacturing PMIs add to the evidence that economic growth in Switzerland and Sweden will continue to slow. The Swiss index is consistent with annual growth in industrial production of about 3%, compared to almost 8% at the end of 2017. And …
At its meeting on 24th January, the Norges Bank is likely to reiterate that it expects to raise interest rates in March, taking the key policy rate to 1.0%. But we think that its tightening cycle will be much slower than its forecasts imply. Meanwhile, at …
17th January 2019
Recent developments suggest that both the Riksbank and Norges Bank will tightening monetary policy more slowly than we had previously anticipated. This is partly because we have revised down our forecasts for economic growth in the euro-zone. But there …
11th January 2019
December’s stronger-than-expected inflation data for Norway suggest that the Norges Bank is almost certain to follow through with its plan to raise interest rates in March. But we think it will then wait until 2020 before raising rates again, which would …
10th January 2019
The drop in headline inflation in Switzerland in December is a sign of things to come, as inflation is set to fall to just above zero in the coming months. Meanwhile, the minutes of the Riksbank’s December meeting suggest that it is likely to hike at most …
9th January 2019
PMIs for December pointed to robust growth in Q4 in Switzerland, Sweden, Norway and Denmark. However, the breakdowns pointed to weak growth ahead in Switzerland and Sweden, and only the Danish economy is set to perform especially well in 2019. … PMIs …
4th January 2019
The Riksbank’s decision to hike interest rates this week supported our long-held view that it would tighten policy more aggressively than investors anticipate. But the risks from high household debt and weak construction output are mounting. Meanwhile, …
21st December 2018
The Riksbank’s surprise decision to hike interest rates today supported our long-held call that it would tighten policy more aggressively than investors anticipate. But there is a clear risk that a housing-related economic slowdown could leave the Bank …
20th December 2018
As oil prices have fallen over the past few months, investors’ expectations for interest rates in Norway have fallen roughly into line with our own. Rate expectations in Switzerland have edged down too, reflecting the weakness of the latest economic data. …
18th December 2018
Central bank meetings in Norway and Iceland this week suggested that interest rate hikes are on the horizon in both economies. By contrast, the Swiss National Bank again signalled that it won’t raise rates anytime soon. Next week we expect the Riksbank to …
14th December 2018
In today’s statement, the Norges Bank clearly signalled that an interest rate hike in March is a near certainty. But beyond that, we think that lower oil prices will prompt the Bank to end its tightening cycle sooner than investors expect, causing the …
13th December 2018
The Swiss National Bank reiterated its commitment to its ultra-accommodative policy stance today and revised down its forecasts for inflation and GDP. As we think inflation will be even lower than they forecast, we continue to expect the SNB to keep its …
The Central Bank of Iceland left interest rates unchanged today, but hinted strongly that hikes are on the horizon. We think that it will raise interest rates twice next year, leaving the deposit rate at 5.00%. … Central Bank of Iceland tightening cycle …
12th December 2018
The slight drop in core inflation in November further decreases the chances of the Riksbank raising rates next week. Nonetheless, we still expect the first hike in February as underlying inflation is set to rebound. … Swedish Consumer Prices …
November’s unexpectedly-sharp rise in inflation in Norway is unlikely to change the Norges Bank’s mind about leaving policy unchanged at Thursday’s meeting. The Bank is likely to raise interest rates again in Q1, but the recent decline in oil prices …
10th December 2018
Switzerland’s Federal Council has been debating this week on whether to align itself more closely with the EU, a decision with serious implications for the country’s status as an international financial centre. Meanwhile, although Q3’s stagnation in the …
7th December 2018
At next week’s monetary policy meeting, the Swiss National Bank is set to reiterate its ultra-dovish stance. Meanwhile, recent developments in Sweden and Norway suggest that policymakers in both countries will give more dovish messages than at previous …
Sweden’s private sector production data for October suggest that the economy bounced back after Q3’s contraction. This reduces the risk of the Riksbank delaying its first rate hike beyond February. … Swedish Private Production …
5th December 2018
November’s falls in headline and core inflation highlight the lack of price pressures in Switzerland. And with GDP growth also weak, the SNB looks set to keep policy looser for longer than investors expect. … Swiss CPI …
4th December 2018
The increase in manufacturing PMIs for Switzerland, Sweden and Norway in November offers hope that the weakness of economic activity in Q3 was not the start of a deeper downturn. But since the surveys also point to easing price pressures, the three …
3rd December 2018
Data released this week which showed that Swiss GDP contracted in Q3 support our view that the SNB will keep interest rates on hold longer than investors currently expect. Meanwhile, other data showed that Sweden’s economy also shrank, which is likely to …
30th November 2018
November’s fall in the KOF Economic Barometer adds to the evidence that Swiss growth has shifted down a gear. And with inflation weak, we expect the SNB to keep policy ultra-loose until at least 2020. … Swiss KOF (Nov.), Finnish & Danish GDP …
The very weak Swiss Q3 GDP data make us more confident that the SNB will keep monetary policy ultra-loose longer than investors expect. Meanwhile, the contraction in the Swedish economy in Q3 suggests that the Riksbank will push back the first interest …
29th November 2018
The Riksbank’s Financial Stability Report highlighted the risks that higher interest rates would pose to the housing market and to households. But we continue to expect a first rate hike in December and the Riksbank to raise rates more quickly than …
23rd November 2018
Sunday’s referendum on whether to place Swiss law above international law threatens to undermine treaty negotiations currently taking place between Switzerland and the EU. Failure to strike a deal on the treaty would hurt financial services and harm …
October’s weaker-than expected inflation data, published this week, are unlikely to deter the Riksbank from raising interest rates in the coming months, with a December hike most likely in our view. Meanwhile, although temporary factors weighed on …
16th November 2018
Economic growth in Switzerland, Sweden and Norway looks set to slow next year. In fact, survey evidence in Switzerland suggests that the economy has already shifted down a gear, with the KOF Economic Barometer pointing to a decline in annual GDP growth …
15th November 2018
The slight fall in Swedish inflation in October will not significantly influence the Riksbank’s decision on the timing of its first rate hike, which we still expect in December. Underlying inflation will be strong enough next year to allow for a steeper …
14th November 2018
Norway’s economic slowdown in Q3 reflected temporary factors. But growth still looks set to weaken next year as oil prices fall. So we expect the krone to weaken and the equity market to underperform. … Norway’s economy to slow in …
13th November 2018
The Central Bank of Iceland this week raised interest rates slightly sooner than we had anticipated and we expect it to tighten policy further in the coming months. The Riksbank is also set to raise interest rates soon, probably next month. But comments …
9th November 2018
October’s weaker-than-expected inflation data suggest that the Norges Bank will be in no hurry to raise interest rates again. We expect it to wait until next March before making its next move, and then to end its tightening cycle sooner than investors …
Higher inflation and inflation expectations have prompted the Central Bank of Iceland to raise interest rates today, sooner than we had anticipated. And as upcoming wage negotiations look likely to result in inflation-busting pay deals, we expect the Bank …
7th November 2018
Sweden’s monthly private sector production data suggest that overall GDP growth slowed in Q3. But with the timelier surveys continuing to paint a fairly positive picture, we remain fairly optimistic on the economy. … Swedish Private Production …
6th November 2018
