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Today’s announcement that the Bank of Japan is willing to provide subordinated loans to banks continues the drip-feed of unconventional policy measures it has introduced since October. The latest proposals seem half-hearted, like many of the others, but …
17th March 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Japan GDP (Q4 Revised) …
12th March 2009
We expect Japan to record a deficit this year both on trade in goods and services and on the overall current account balance. This sharp turnaround (from large surpluses in 2007) reflects the double hit from the global recession and financial crisis on …
9th March 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Japan Activity Data & CPI (Jan/Feb) …
27th February 2009
January’s data all but guarantee that collapsing exports will make another large negative contribution to Japan’s GDP in the first quarter. However, imports have also started to drop back, which means that the overall drag from net trade should still be …
25th February 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … What more can the BoJ do? …
18th February 2009
The speed and extent of the collapse in Japanese exports should at least mean that the immediate adjustment to weaker global demand has now largely run its course. The fall-out in terms of the damage to confidence, additional production cuts, growing …
16th February 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Japan GDP (Q4 Prelim.) …
We expect next Monday’s preliminary data to show that the Japanese economy contracted by around 3.5% q/q in the fourth quarter of last year (an annualised rate of 15%). However, Japan may well then end up as one of the first of the major economies to …
9th February 2009
The Bank of Japan’s modest programme of asset purchases is unlikely to be the last word, especially given the deterioration in economic and financial conditions acknowledged today in its own forecasts and Senior Loan Officer Survey. … Bank of Japan has a …
22nd January 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Edging back towards quantitative easing? …
20th January 2009
Japanese households and companies have avoided the financial excesses and over-indebtedness that point to a severe and prolonged recession in the West. Japanese banks are also in relatively good shape. We therefore continue to expect Japan to be among the …
24th December 2008
The Bank of Japan effectively reverted to a zero interest rate policy today and edged towards quantitative easing, although the embrace of QE is still half-hearted. We are certainly not impressed by the government’s latest “economic stimulus package”. … …
19th December 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Bank of Japan to follow Fed to zero …
17th December 2008
The Bank of Japan’s Tankan survey of business conditions was not quite as bad as we had feared, but we may just have been a quarter early. The one consolation is that Japan is not alone – other major economies are doing just as badly, or a lot worse. … …
15th December 2008
We expect the headline numbers from the Bank of Japan’s quarterly “Tankan” survey for December, released next Monday, to be even worse than the consensus. Our forecast for the large manufacturers’ index is -40, compared to the median in the Bloomberg …
10th December 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Japan CPI, IP, Unemployment & Spending (Oct) …
28th November 2008
As widely anticipated, the Bank of Japan left policy rates unchanged today. However, the prospect of outright declines in both economic activity and prices next year suggests that rates are heading back to zero and will remain there for the foreseeable …
21st November 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Japan External Trade (Oct.) …
20th November 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … ZIRP to return in 2009 …
19th November 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Japan GDP (Q3 Prelim.) …
17th November 2008
The Japanese financial system remains in relatively good shape. Despite the erosion of bank capital due to sliding stock markets, a number of factors suggest that there are no major risks to the banking sector. … Is trouble lurking within Japan’s …
6th November 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Japan CPI, Unemployment & Spending (Sep) …
31st October 2008
The Bank of Japan’s willingness to cut interest rates even further from already exceptionally low levels, combined with the prospect of outright declines in both economic activity and prices, suggests that rates are heading back to zero and will remain …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Japanese interest rates to be cut to zero …
29th October 2008
Inflation fears are rapidly being replaced by the very real chance of deflation in all the major economies. Indeed, we now expect Japanese inflation to turn negative again next year, averaging minus 0.5%. (The consensus is still plus 1.0%.) But in this …
28th October 2008
The Japanese economy may already be in technical recession, but we expect the downturn to be relatively short-lived and shallow. Sharp falls in inflation will boost real incomes, while Japan has avoided the fundamental economic and financial imbalances …
24th October 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Japan External Trade (Sep.) …
23rd October 2008
A closer look at different measures of wages growth in Japan shows that, contrary to most analysis, the economic recovery in recent years has not been a “wageless” phenomenon. Even continued modest growth in nominal wages should be sufficient to support a …
Japan’s seasonally adjusted trade deficit of ¥208 billion in August reported earlier in the week – the first monthly deficit since the early 1980s – has increased concerns about the fallout from the global economic slowdown. But we still think there are …
17th October 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Japan Output & Spending (Aug) …
30th September 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Japan CPI (Aug) …
26th September 2008
We believe that the Bank of Japan’s quarterly “Tankan” survey for September, due next Wednesday, will show that business conditions have held up rather better than the consensus expects. Indeed, the MoF/Cabinet Office Business Outlook Survey, published …
24th September 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Better news coming on growth and inflation …
16th September 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Japan GDP (Q2 Revised) …
12th September 2008
The Bank of Japan’s Tankan survey of business conditions was disappointing but not disastrous. The detail contained some reassuring news with regard to financial conditions and the labour market. … Tankan shows Japan’s economy slowing, not …
1st September 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Japan Output, Spending & CPI (July) …
29th August 2008
Japan has been hit hard by surging food and energy prices, but has avoided the credit crunch and collapsing house prices that have undermined so many economies in the West. Indeed, the Japanese economy is still in relatively good shape compared to similar …
24th August 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Rates on hold for remainder of this year …
15th August 2008
The first estimate of Japan’s second quarter GDP will be released, not very auspiciously, on the 13th (next Wednesday). We expect this to show an outright fall of around 0.3% q/q, although a much bigger decline would not be a huge surprise after the …
6th August 2008
The 2.0% m/m decline in Japanese industrial production in June confirms that output has now fallen for two successive quarters. This was at least widely expected: the consensus was for a fall of 1.7% m/m, and any m/m decline would have been sufficient to …
30th July 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Japan Unemployment and Spending (Jun.) …
29th July 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Japan CPI (Jun) …
25th July 2008
The Japanese economy is clearly slowing. Indeed, the official data suggest that consumer spending has fallen sharply and manufacturing may already be in a (short-lived) technical recession. Nonetheless, the flying start to the year means that GDP is still …
24th July 2008
The recovery in the construction sector should prevent an outright fall in Japanese GDP in the second quarter and contribute around 0.7 percentage points to growth in the year as whole. The economy is therefore likely to grow only a little more slowly in …
22nd July 2008
On their own, the Bank of Japan’s revised economic forecasts are still consistent with our view that interest rates could be raised again by the end of the year. Nonetheless, the deteriorating global environment suggests that the long period of unchanged …
15th July 2008
June’s Tankan survey confirms that Japanese business conditions are deteriorating, but not as far as most had feared. The economy is in much better shape than at similar stages in previous downturns. … Tankan shows Japan’s economy slowing, not …
1st July 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Japan Output, Spending & CPI (May) …
27th June 2008
The Bank of Japan’s quarterly “Tankan” survey for June, due next Tuesday (1st July), will almost certainly report that business conditions have deteriorated. However, there has been some better news since March. Indeed, despite some gloomy headlines, the …
23rd June 2008
The Bank of Japan predictably left rates on hold today. But with inflation expectations soaring, we believe that rates will be raised again sooner than generally anticipated and perhaps even earlier than the November hike we have already penciled in. …
13th June 2008
