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This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Is the next move in Japanese rates a cut? …
17th January 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Bank of Japan on alert as inflation pressures build …
17th December 2007
The latest monthly data have mostly been disappointing, confirming that the Bank of Japan will have to tread very carefully if it wants to continue returning interest rates towards more normal levels. Larger companies are still benefitting from bouyant …
24th November 2007
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Rates on hold until at least November …
13th September 2007
For the first time in a long while it is possible to build a reasonable case for worrying about the Japanese economy: our monthly review of the latest data finds causes for concern among both households and businesses. Consumers say they are less …
24th August 2007
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … August rate hike still on the agenda …
16th August 2007
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Fukui to prepare ground for August hike …
5th July 2007
The upwardly-revised Q1 GDP data have set a solid base for the year. We expect growth of around 2.6% in 2007 as a whole, comfortably above the latest consensus of 2.2%. The slump in the index of leading indicators is a concern, but there is no such …
24th June 2007
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … August rate hike likely, but markets still complacent …
11th June 2007
The slightly disappointing GDP data for the first quarter still mark a good start for the year. In particular, the household sector made another large positive contribution. Investment was the soft spot: high levels of capacity utilisation suggest that …
24th May 2007
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … GDP data should support hawks at BoJ …
10th May 2007
The weakness of the latest CPI and activity data, combined with cautious growth and inflation forecasts from the Bank of Japan, has prompted us to tweak our rate forecasts down slightly. We now expect the Bank to wait until August before hiking rates …
27th April 2007
The outlook for the Japanese economy is less clear than it has been for a while. Growth in the industrial sector is certainly slowing, albeit from a relatively high level. Weak manufacturing orders and rises in stocks of unsold producer goods are among …
24th April 2007
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … New forecasts should support further rate hikes, eventually …
19th April 2007
Many commentators are starting to raise concerns about the index of leading indicators in Japan. At face value the latest reading is signalling a recession by the second half of the year, or at least a marked slowdown. However, a closer look at the key …
18th April 2007
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … US downturn to keep BoJ on hold a while longer …
3rd April 2007
The early data for January and February suggest that consumer spending has retained much of its positive momentum from the fourth quarter of last year, but industrial growth has peaked. The strong global economy, rather than the weakness of the yen, has …
24th March 2007
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Diminishing spare capacity points to higher rates …
15th March 2007
G7 officials have always argued that exchange rates need to reflect underlying economic fundamentals. The value of the yen is doing just that. The main reason for the recent weakness has been the disappointing economic data from Japan, which contrasts …
24th February 2007
Most commentators have been quick to dismiss the significance of today’s increase in Japanese interest rates, taking their cue from the apparently dovish statement accompanying the announcement. However, we think this interpretation is too simplistic and …
21st February 2007
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … February rate hike is more likely than not …
15th February 2007
Consumption is rebounding from the weather-related weakness in Q3, but wage growth and price inflation remain subdued. So far, employees appear to have been willing to sacrifice higher pay for greater job security. However, the improvement in employment …
24th January 2007
Japanese wage inflation has so far remained subdued despite the downward trend in unemploymentn since 2003. This probably reflects consumer uncertainty over the outlook for the economy, with employees willing to sacrifice higher pay for greater job …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Rates to rise further in 2007 than the markets expect …
11th January 2007
The majority of the monthly data released ahead of the crucial Tankan survey (to be published this Friday) has been upbeat. In particular, household spending has begun to recover from the slump in Q3. Wage growth remains disappointing, but the continued …
24th December 2006
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Xmas rate rise would be more Santa than Scrooge …
14th December 2006
The omens for third quarter GDP (to be released on 14th November) are not good. Consumer spending probably fell outright, due to a combination of bad weather and sluggish growth in real wages. However, the evidence from business and consumer surveys is …
24th November 2006
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Rate decision hinges on GDP data …
8th November 2006
This Focus assesses the implications of the Bank of Japan’s twice-yearly growth and inflation forecasts, published today in its “Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices”. In our view these provide ample justification for another rate rise soon, perhaps …
31st October 2006
Today’s strong Tankan survey of business conditions paves the way for the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to raise interest rates again shortly. Although most analysis starts and finishes with the headline index for large manufacturers (which unexpectedly rose to +24 …
2nd October 2006
The recent deterioration in market sentiment towards the Japanese economy is largely unjustified. The jury is still out on the consumer sector following a string of weak numbers, but we suspect that these have been distorted by measurement problems and …
24th September 2006
The imminent retirement of Prime Minister Koizumi is likely to raise concerns that “reform fatigue” will start to undermine the Japanese economy and markets. In this Focus we assess the risks to Koizumi’s legacy and suggest some pointers to gauge whether …
13th September 2006
Recent monthly indicators from the consumer sector have been surprisingly weak. This contrasts with the strength of household spending in the GDP data over the last year or so, and raises concerns that the Japanese consumer is beginning to flag. In this …
30th August 2006
The markets appear increasingly complacent over the outlook for Japanese interest rates. In part this reflects three common misunderstandings about the inflation data: the impact of base year revisions, the implications of excluding energy costs from the …
22nd August 2006
Today’s strong Tankan survey of business confidence in the second quarter paves the way for the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to raise interest rates, most likely at its next meeting on July 14th. Although most analysis just looks at the headline index of …
3rd July 2006
Our latest monthly review of the key data has made us a little more cautious about the prospects for the Japanese economy, despite the upward revisions to first quarter GDP. We still expect the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates shortly and by more in …
24th June 2006
The positive trends in both business and consumer confidence suggest domestic demand will remain firm, helping to offset slower global growth and a stronger yen. Spare capacity is now largely eliminated and underlying inflationary pressures are set to …
24th May 2006
The highlight of the past month was the upbeat Tankan survey of business confidence, which showed a broadening economic recovery with diminishing spare capacity and a tightening labour market. This represents one of the last nails in the coffin of the …
24th April 2006
Our monthly review of the key data in Japan finds some mixed signals in the official data. There are signs of renewed weakness in the monthly series on consumer spending and the downward trend in unemployment appears to have faltered. Nonetheless, this …
24th March 2006
Net exports have played an important role in supporting Japan’s economic recovery, contributing around 30% of the increase in GDP since 2002. This has raised concerns over the vulnerability of the economy to a global downturn and therefore over the …
15th March 2006
The Bank of Japan left policy unchanged at the end of its monthly rate-setting meeting on 9th February, but we do not expect it to wait much longer. The data summarised here in our monthly review show a strengthening economic recovery and fading …
24th February 2006
The economic recovery appears to have strengthened further in the fourth quarter of last year. Private consumption should continue to grow strongly, although business investment may slow slightly. Encouragingly, forward-looking indicators and surveys of …
24th January 2006
Both the Bank of Japan and the consensus of outside forecasters expect deflation to persist in Japan well into 2006. In contrast, we expect inflation to return this year. With next-to-nothing in terms of interest rate increases priced into the futures …
15th May 2005
