The first estimate of Japan’s second quarter GDP will be released, not very auspiciously, on the 13th (next Wednesday). We expect this to show an outright fall of around 0.3% q/q, although a much bigger decline would not be a huge surprise after the suspiciously strong increase of 1.0% in Q1. Whatever the precise numbers, we continue to expect Japan’s downturn to be relatively shallow and short-lived.
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