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Overview – India’s economy is emerging from its recent soft patch. Headline CPI inflation should remain close to the RBI’s 4% target over the coming months, enabling the central bank to continue easing monetary policy. We’re expecting a further 75bps of …
11th March 2025
Overview – After a stellar run, India’s economy has entered a softer patch that will continue for a few more quarters. We think that will portend an underperformance in local equities relative to other major benchmarks. Headline CPI inflation is likely …
10th December 2024
Overview – The economy is cooling but remains primed to grow by 6-6.5% per year between 2024 and 2026, which would put India on course to become the world’s third-largest economy in the next couple of years. Headline CPI inflation is likely to remain …
18th September 2024
Overview – Prime Minister Modi begins his third term with a weakened mandate, but an economy that is primed to grow by 6.5-7% per year between 2024 and 2026. That would put India on course to become the world’s third largest economy within the next couple …
20th June 2024
Overview – India retained its title as the world’s fastest-growing major economy last year and we expect further strong growth over the coming years. That would put India on course to become the world’s third largest economy within the next couple of …
13th March 2024
Overview – India’s economy has grown at a healthy clip over recent quarters and, with the help of government spending, we think it will continue to hold up well ahead of next year’s general election. Given also that food inflation has picked up again, the …
5th December 2023
Overview – India’s economy is showing signs of coming off the boil, and core inflation is moderating. However, a surge in food prices has pushed headline CPI inflation well beyond the upper limit of the RBI’s 2-6% tolerance range. The onset of a …
13th September 2023
Overview – The RBI’s tightening cycle has come to an end and, as the economy comes off the boil and inflation settles at comfortable rates, we think interest rates cuts will materialise in early 2024. Over the longer term, India’s growth prospects are …
12th June 2023
Overview – The RBI’s tightening cycle is in its final throes and, as the economy softens and inflation drops back to within the central bank’s 2-6% target range, we think rates cuts will materialise in early 2024. Over the longer term, India’s growth …
20th March 2023
Overview – The RBI has slowed the pace of rate hikes and is likely to call a halt to tightening in early 2023. As the economy weakens, rate cuts could come onto the agenda by late next year and materialise in early 2024, several months sooner than the …
8th December 2022
Overview – The RBI has frontloaded policy tightening over recent months but with inflation peaking and economic headwinds building, we think the central bank will now slow the pace of tightening and revert to 25bp hikes. Our forecast is for the repo rate …
13th October 2022
Overview – Strong economic growth and surging inflation have prompted the RBI to kick-start its hiking cycle and we think the central bank will continue to frontload policy tightening. In all, we think the repo rate will rise by a bit more than the …
7th July 2022
Overview – The surge in global commodity prices will take a little gloss off India’s economic recovery this year but we still expect stronger GDP growth than the consensus. Higher commodity prices will also keep inflation elevated, which we think will …
13th April 2022
Overview – India’s Omicron wave should only be a temporary setback to the economic recovery. As long as recurrent large waves of COVID are avoided, we think that economic growth will be faster this year than last. We also think that inflation will soon …
19th January 2022
Overview – Following a rapid rebound from the second virus wave, India’s economy is beginning to lose some steam. And with vaccination coverage still low, downside risks remain significant. Under these circumstances, the RBI is likely to keep policy …
11th October 2021
Overview – India’s ferocious second virus wave is subsiding as quickly as it emerged, enabling the recovery to get back on track. However, the rapid scaling back of containment measures that is underway increases the threat of further outbreaks. And …
1st July 2021
Overview – The economic recovery has progressed well over recent months and as things currently stand growth is on course to be stronger than the consensus expects this year. But the recent surge in virus cases is a significant downside risk to the …
8th April 2021
Overview – The drop in new COVID-19 cases and the resulting scaling back of containment measures in India has provided a much-needed boost to the economy, and an effective vaccine will further support the recovery in 2021 and 2022. But even widespread …
11th January 2021
Overview – The continued rapid spread of COVID-19 in India and the need for prolonged containment measures has plunged the economy into a double-digit contraction this year. A tepid fiscal response means the recovery will underwhelm too. The dire economic …
1st October 2020
Overview – India’s failure to contain the coronavirus and the government’s underwhelming policy response mean the economy will suffer its largest drop in annual output on record this year. In addition, the recovery is likely to be one of the weakest among …
7th July 2020
We have compressed this edition of the Outlook to focus it on the most timely indicators. Overview – Strict containment measures in response to the coronavirus outbreak in India will have severe economic repercussions. We think the economy will grow by …
2nd April 2020
Overview – After a year to forget in 2019, a combination of policy loosening and more effective measures to deal with the malaise in the shadow banking sector will push economic growth in India back up to a healthier pace in 2020. And with core inflation …
9th January 2020
Overview – India’s economy slowed sharply in the first half of the year but, with policy support being stepped up, growth should gradually recover. And despite the recent soft patch for the economy, we remain optimistic about India’s longer-term …
8th October 2019
Overview – Policy support has been stepped up in recent months and, with further easing set to follow, growth should gradually recover from the slowdown in Q1. In fact, the risk now is that policy loosening goes too far, raising the prospect of higher …
9th July 2019
