Filtered by Subscriptions: Europe Economics Use setting Europe Economics
There would appear to be a good chance that Greece will pass the first formal review of its third bailout programme. But nothing is certain and even a successful outcome won’t necessarily mark the beginning of the end of Greece’s six-year long crisis. … …
19th January 2016
January’s German ZEW survey confirmed that recent turbulence in global financial markets and the soft tone of the domestic hard data have dented investor sentiment. … German ZEW …
Swiss exports have performed better than we had feared in the year since the SNB abandoned its currency ceiling. But the franc’s strength has probably yet to take its full toll on exports and the extra deflationary pressure that it has caused could have …
18th January 2016
The disconnect between the surveys and the official data for Q4 became ever clearer last week, with the release of disappointingly weak November industrial production figures. While the surveys were probably too upbeat and the hard data too gloomy, it now …
15th January 2016
The euro-zone goods trade surplus rose in November, suggesting that exports might have added to GDP growth in Q4. Nevertheless, we suspect that net trade will make little contribution to growth this year. … Euro-zone Trade …
The Swiss National Bank’s (SNB) shock decision to abandon its ceiling for the franc reflected its judgement that the policy was just not sustainable. Unless it can reverse the franc’s appreciation with other policies, the downward impact on growth and …
After disappointing markets in December, we expect the ECB to indicate at its forthcoming meeting that the door is still open to bolder policy support. The Bank is unlikely to alter policy for now given the firm tone of recent survey data and the damage …
14th January 2016
The very low rate of inflation in Sweden in December underlines the absence of price pressures and will encourage the Riksbank to follow through on last week’s announcement that it was prepared to intervene in the currency market. … Swedish Consumer …
While the euro-zone economy ended last year with some momentum, expectations of a further acceleration in growth in 2016 will be disappointed. The boost to consumer spending from the decline in oil prices and inflation will fade, while export growth is …
13th January 2016
November’s fall in euro-zone industrial production added to evidence that the economy performed worse in Q4 than the surveys have implied and perhaps even failed to match Q3’s modest 0.3% expansion. … Euro-zone Industrial Production …
Although France’s headline inflation rate edged up in December, the big picture is that price pressures in the euro-zone’s second-largest economy remain very weak. … French Consumer Prices …
Perhaps the most notable positive surprise in the euro-zone last year was the strength of household spending. Spending looks likely to have expanded by 1.5% or more in 2015. This would be the strongest increase since 2007 and account for almost all of …
8th January 2016
November’s disappointingly weak German and French industrial production figures provided further evidence that the hard data on the euro-zone economy is failing to live up to the more optimistic picture painted by the surveys. … German & French …
December’s EC Business and Consumer Survey added to evidence that euro-zone GDP growth accelerated in Q4, but the consumer recovery seems to be losing pace. … Euro-zone EC Survey (Dec.), Unemp. & Retail Sales …
7th January 2016
Sweden’s Riksbank is likely to have to follow through on its pledge to intervene in the foreign exchange market. But the strength of the domestic economy and the likelihood of more ECB QE means that it will probably only be able to stem the krona’s …
The small rise in the euro-zone’s Composite PMI for December suggested that the region’s recovery may have gained a little pace in the final quarter of 2015. But GDP growth is still too slow to provide a meaningful boost to core inflation. … Euro-zone …
6th January 2016
December’s euro-zone consumer price inflation rate of +0.2% left an average inflation rate for 2015 as a whole of zero – the lowest rate since the single currency was formed. Headline inflation will almost certainly rise during 2016 as negative energy …
5th January 2016
December’s weaker-than-expected euro-zone consumer prices figures supported our view that bolder ECB policy action will ultimately be needed to bring inflation back to target on a sustained basis. … Euro-zone Flash CPI …
The latest fiscal data suggested that the peripheral countries continued to improve their budgetary positions at the back end of 2015. But there is a distinct risk of fiscal slippage in 2016, particularly in Spain and Portugal following their recent …
4th January 2016
December’s German CPI data confirm that the relative strength of the economy is exerting no upward pressure on inflation and support our view that the ECB will need to do more to hit its inflation target for the region as a whole. … German Flash CPI & …
The recent pick-up in German wage growth is encouraging and we think that fears of a sharp rise in inflation and loss of competitiveness are unwarranted. Our one misgiving is that the ECB might respond to modest inflationary pressure in Germany by …
23rd December 2015
The inconclusive result of the Spanish general election is set to trigger a period of political uncertainty which could slow the country’s economic recovery. But it also represents another blow to the euro-zone’s policy of onerous austerity. … Spanish …
21st December 2015
The stronger-than-expected performance of the euro-zone economy in 2015 and the additional policy support recently provided by the ECB might appear to provide the conditions for a further improvement in the currency union’s outlook in 2016. But two of the …
18th December 2015
Employment in the euro-zone is expanding at a healthy pace and survey data point to a positive outlook. But this hides a very mixed story amongst different countries, and the overall picture is stillone of plenty of labour market slack and very little …
17th December 2015
The likely advent of a coalition government after this Sunday’s Spanish general election looks unlikely to bring the country’s robust economic recovery to a halt. But a period of political instability could certainly take some of the steam out of the …
December’s small fall in the headline German Ifo index left it still at a high level. But the sharper decline in the current conditions component supported evidence from recent hard data that growth may have reached a peak. … German Ifo Survey …
The Norges Bank left monetary policy unchanged today, but with growth slowing and inflation set to fall, interest rate cuts look highly likely next year, starting at the next policy meeting in March. … Norges Bank signals rate cuts next …
There are reasons to think that the advent of tighter monetary policy in the US will not have a materially negative impact on the currency union. But there is no room for euro-zone policymakers to be complacent. … Will the Fed’s lift-off cause a euro-zone …
16th December 2015
October’s euro-zone goods trade data revealed a further slowdown in export growth, adding to the evidence that the boost from the weaker euro is fading. We suspect that the trade surplus will narrow next year, dragging on the region’s economic recovery. … …
December’s small fall in the euro-zone Composite PMI left it still pointing to steady but modest growth in the region. But the Paris attacks have taken a toll on France, leaving the economy close to stagnation again. … Euro-zone Flash PMIs …
December’s solid rise in German ZEW investor expectations suggests that the economy is faring pretty well, but it still points to a slight slowdown in growth. … German ZEW …
15th December 2015
The ECB’s timidity and strong domestic demand has allowed Sweden’s Riksbank to leave monetary policy unchanged today. But with headline inflation in Sweden still close to zero and policy likely to be loosened further in the euro-zone, the Riksbank will be …
October’s rise in euro-zone industrial production provides an early indication that the sector will have had a solid Q4, adding to evidence that the region’s recovery may have regained some pace at the end of 2015. … Euro-zone Industrial Production …
14th December 2015
Contrary to hopes that a weaker euro and accommodative monetary policy would be particularly beneficial to Germany’s supposedly super-competitive export sector, the latest data have brought signs that growth may have passed its peak. Both exports and …
11th December 2015
Ireland’s impressive recovery continued in Q3. And with the conditions in place for continued rapid growth, it is set to remain the euro-zone’s fastest-growing economy. … Ireland GDP …
10th December 2015
November’s consumer prices data showed a continued divergence between the subdued rates of inflation in Sweden and Denmark and stronger price pressures in Norway, reflecting the recent depreciation of its currency. … Swedish, Danish & Norwegian Consumer …
The renewed fall in France’s headline inflation rate in November highlights the absence of price pressures in the region’s second-largest economy. The weakness of the economy, underscored by the details of October’s industrial production data, suggests …
With the ECB’s cautious action last week reducing upward pressure on the franc against the euro, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) was able to leave policy on hold as expected today. But we still think that the ECB will expand its QE programme next year and …
The recent further fall in oil prices and imminent commencement of monetary tightening in the US are unlikely to compensate for the ECB’s disappointingly timid action at last week’s policy meeting. … Will the Fed & oil prices bail out the …
9th December 2015
Today’s decision by Iceland’s central bank to keep its key interest rates unchanged was merely a reflection of the improvement in the short-term inflation outlook and a tighter policy stance will still be required next year. … Iceland holds rates but more …
The euro-zone has proved relatively resilient in the face of global headwinds, but the region still has to contend with significant domestic problems. And with fiscal policy unlikely to provide a big boost to growth, the onus will remain firmly on the ECB …
8th December 2015
The second estimate of euro-zone GDP in Q3 revealed that the slowdown in growth was driven by weaker net exports. As the boost to consumer spending growth from lower oil prices fades, we think that GDP growth will slow further next year. … Euro-zone GDP …
The solid growth in Iceland’s GDP in Q3 confirmed that the economy is performing strongly and has put the 2008 collapse of the banking sector behind it. With domestic demand very healthy, the central bank is unlikely to be deterred from hiking rates. … …
