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With Norway now on the path to recovery, the Norges Bank has begun to prepare the ground for future interest rate hikes. But while the Bank will probably tighten later this year, we do not expect rates to rise as rapidly as the markets currently envisage. …
23rd September 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Sep.) & French Household Spending (Aug.) …
The outcome of Sunday’s German election may have some bearing on the pace of fiscal consolidation. But, whichever coalition prevails, fears of early and particularly aggressive policy tightening seem overdone. Accordingly, we still think that the outlook …
22nd September 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Deflation risk is greater than the ECB claims …
21st September 2009
After leaving the target for three-month interest rates at just 0.25% today, the SNB struck a slightly less pessimistic tone than it had previously. But while the Bank has revised up its inflation forecast a little, a modest economic recovery will ensure …
17th September 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Euro-zone Trade Balance (Jul.) …
The release of further details of the Irish Government’s “bad bank” plans does little to change our view that bank lending will continue to contract for a sustained period. Ultimately, further measures will probably be required to get the banking sector …
After leaving the target for three-month interest rates at just 0.25% today, the SNB struck a slightly less pessimistic tone than it had previously. But while the Bank has revised up its inflation forecast alittle, a modest economic recovery will ensure …
On the face of it, the surge in euro-zone new car sales over recent months seems like good news for the region’s beleaguered vehicle producers. Nonetheless, we doubt that this will prompt much of a pick-up in production in the near term. This supports our …
16th September 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … German ZEW (Sep.) & Euro-zone Labour Costs (Q2) …
15th September 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Euro-zone Industrial Production (Jul.) & Employment (Q2) …
14th September 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Industrial divergences set to persist …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Italian GDP (Q2), French Industrial Prod’n & Trade (Jul.) …
10th September 2009
The clear improvement in indicators of domestic activity and an upward revision to our forecast for the US have prompted us to raise our projection for euro-zone GDP growth next year. The recovery is still unlikely to be as sharp as that in the US over …
9th September 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … German Industrial Production & Trade (Jul.) …
8th September 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Deflation dangers linger …
7th September 2009
After leaving interest rates unchanged at 1.0%, the ECB once again underlined its reluctance to follow other central banks in implementing bolder unconventional measures. Nonetheless, any tightening of conventional monetary policy seems a long way off. … …
3rd September 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Euro-zone Retail Sales (Jul.) & Final PMI (Aug.) …
The decision by the Swedish Riksbank to keep interest rates on hold at 0.25% and signal that rates may remain unchanged for around another year supports our view that markets may have got ahead of themselves in forecasting rate hikes by early 2010. … …
Q2’s modest 0.1% quarterly contraction in euro-zone economic activity was an encouraging sign that the recession is nearing its end. Admittedly, the improvement compared to Q1’s 2.5% drop was partly related to a boost from public spending, which will not …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Euro-zone GDP (Q2) & PPI (Jul.) …
2nd September 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Swiss GDP (Q2) …
1st September 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Euro-zone Unemployment (Jul.) …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … German consumer upturn set to fade …
31st August 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Euro-zone EC Survey (Aug.) …
28th August 2009
The ECB will leave interest rates on hold at 1.0% at its September policy meeting and is very unlikely to announce any new unconventional policy measures. The Bank is likely to treat recent signs of improvement in the economy with caution, supporting our …
The latest euro-zone money figures provided little sign that the ECB’s recent continued provision of liquidity to banks has prompted them to increase their lending to the wider economy. … Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor …
27th August 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Spanish GDP (Q2) …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … German Ifo Survey (Aug.) …
26th August 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … German GDP (Q2) …
25th August 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Asian recovery unlikely to prompt a surge in exports …
24th August 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Aug.) …
21st August 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Norwegian GDP (Q2) …
20th August 2009
The latest comments from the Swiss National Bank (SNB) confirm that it will maintain its strong policy stimulus for the foreseeable future, helping to reduce the significant risk of a sustained period of deflation. But we still expect the Swiss economy to …
19th August 2009
Greece has so far weathered the global economic downturn rather well. In fact, it is the only eurozone economy yet to have entered a technical recession. But next year, we still expect it to begin to lag behind its neighbours. A return to the growth rates …
18th August 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … German ZEW (Aug.) …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Euro-zone Trade Balance (Jun.) …
17th August 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Still too soon to talk of a sustained recovery …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Euro-zone CPI (Jul. Final), Spanish GDP (Q2) …
14th August 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Euro-zone GDP (Q2) …
13th August 2009
June’s surge in exports brought hope that the key German external sector is on the road to recovery. Unfortunately, there are good reasons to think that the pace of improvement will slow sharply in the coming months. But we still expect a relatively …
12th August 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Euro-zone Industrial Production (Jun.) …
Government incentives to buy new cars probably prompted euro-zone consumer spending to rise at the strongest rate in two years in Q2. But this boost will be partly reversed as the schemes are phased out next year. And in the meantime, any positive effect …
11th August 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Euro may be nearing a peak …
10th August 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … German Industrial Production (Jun.) & Italian GDP (Q2) …
7th August 2009
After leaving interest rates unchanged at 1.0% at it August meeting, President Trichet suggested that the ECB is unlikely to adopt new measures to stimulate the economy in the immediate future. We have not given up hope that the Bank will eventually act …
6th August 2009
Recent weeks have seen some signs of an improvement in the consumer sector. Although retail sales fell by 0.4% in Q2, the drop was not as sharp as Q1’s 0.8% fall. Together with a 12% surge in car sales, this points to an increase in total spending in Q2 …
5th August 2009
