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Overview – The euro-zone will get a boost from Germany’s decision to ditch its fiscal rules and ramp up defence spending, as well as the relaxation of the EU’s budget rules. But governments other than Germany won’t loosen policy very much, and the …
21st March 2025
Overview – We expect economic growth in the euro-zone to remain sluggish. This is partly due to adverse demographics and structural forces hampering the competitiveness of industry. But past monetary tightening will continue to weigh on investment and …
16th December 2024
Note: This Outlook was originally published on 17th September . It was updated on 1st October to reflect a revision to our ECB interest rate view . Overview – The euro-zone appears to have lost some momentum and is likely to remain sluggish in the coming …
18th September 2024
Overview – The euro-zone has come out of a long period of stagnation and will expand at a moderate pace over the coming two years. The recovery will be faster in some southern economies, such as Spain, than in core economies, notably Germany, while the …
20th June 2024
Overview – The euro-zone will remain close to recession until the second half of this year and the subsequent recovery is likely to be weak. Household real incomes will pick up only slowly and consumers will be cautious amid a softening labour market. …
15th March 2024
Overview – The euro-zone will remain in or close to recession in the first half of 2024 as the effects of higher interest rates continue to weigh on household consumption and investment, and fiscal policy is tightened. Headline inflation has already …
12th December 2023
Overview – We expect the euro-zone economy to struggle over the next 18 months, and a mild recession in the coming quarters looks more likely than not. Lower energy prices and improved global supply chain conditions should keep headline inflation on a …
27th September 2023
Overview – We expect the mild recession in the euro-zone to drag on for the rest of the year. The drop-back in energy prices will provide some relief for households and companies but will be partly offset by governments withdrawing policy support. …
21st June 2023
The outlook for economic activity remains poor due to the impact of high inflation, tight monetary policy and weak external demand. Sweden is already in a recession, not least thanks to the slump in its property sector. And while Norway and Switzerland …
14th April 2023
Overview – The euro-zone economy is set to perform much worse than consensus forecasts suggest over the next two years, with a recession looking likely. That is mainly because monetary policy and bank lending conditions are tightening. We expect …
28th March 2023
Click here to read the full report. Overview – We think the euro-zone is now at the start of a recession, driven by high inflation, tightening financial conditions and weak external demand, and anticipate two quarters of contraction followed by a gradual …
19th December 2022
Prospects for economic activity have deteriorated further in recent months as headwinds to growth have become stronger. Inflation looks set to remain high for longer, eroding households’ real incomes; monetary policy is being tightened further and …
25th October 2022
Overview – The euro-zone is on the cusp of a significant recession due to a severe squeeze on households’ real incomes, rising interest rates and weak external demand. We now think GDP will fall for the next three quarters and will recover only …
20th October 2022
The near-term economic outlook has deteriorated in recent months and Switzerland, Sweden, and Denmark are set for mild recessions in late 2022 and early 2023. This is partly a function of external weakness; as highly open economies, the recession in the …
21st July 2022
Overview – The euro-zone looks on course to fall into a mild recession in the coming quarters. Real incomes are falling, business sentiment has plummeted and growth in the region’s export markets is slowing. Nevertheless, the labour market is likely to …
14th July 2022
The higher prevalence of renewables in the energy mixes than in most of Europe means the squeeze on incomes from higher gas prices will be less acute in Switzerland and the Nordics, and Norway even stands to benefit from elevated commodity prices. But as …
27th April 2022
Overview – The war in Ukraine has delivered a shock to Europe just as it was coming out of the pandemic. Higher energy prices will keep inflation elevated, squeeze household incomes and dent business confidence. We think the euro-zone economy will do no …
22nd April 2022
The re-tightening of restrictions has overshadowed the start of the year in Switzerland and the Nordics, and our GDP growth forecasts for 2022 are about 0.5%-pts lower than the consensus. Nonetheless, the soft patches for activity should be short …
26th January 2022
Overview – We expect consumption to rebound from the Omicron wave within a few weeks, lifting euro-zone GDP to its pre-pandemic level in the first half of the year. But GDP will remain below its pre-pandemic path for the foreseeable future. Meanwhile, …
21st January 2022
As highly-open economies, Switzerland and the Nordics are far from immune to the issues of slowing global growth and supply-chain shortages that are currently vexing investors. Sweden is perhaps most exposed; the impressive rebound there looks to have …
20th October 2021
Overview – Supply chain problems will slow the recovery and keep inflation above target until around the middle of next year. Beyond that, however, the economy should get back on track. After regaining its pre-crisis level later this year, output is …
19th October 2021
As elsewhere in mainland Europe, activity in Switzerland and the Nordic economies rebounded in Q2 as services sectors re-opened and the strength of global trade has buoyed exports. Our GDP forecasts for 2021 are generally above the consensus and output …
22nd July 2021
Overview – The euro-zone is on the way to an almost full recovery. We expect Germany to regain its pre-pandemic level of activity later this year and the tourist-dependent southern countries to do so next year. The Delta variant may lead to some voluntary …
16th July 2021
As elsewhere in mainland Europe, the slow vaccine rollout means that the rebound in domestic activity is unlikely to get underway in earnest until Q3. Denmark is a noteworthy exception; its comparative success in containing the virus has allowed it to …
16th April 2021
Overview – The slow vaccination programme has left the euro-zone well behind the US and UK in coming out of the health crisis. We think the economy will not expand at all in Q2 and GDP growth will be much weaker than the consensus expects this year. …
15th April 2021
Having experienced some of the smallest falls in output in Europe in 2020, GDP in Switzerland and the Nordics is likely to rise back to pre-virus levels in H2 2021 – about a year ahead of the euro-zone. As elsewhere in Europe, the pace of vaccine …
27th January 2021
Overview – The vaccine rollout is likely to make enough progress for most pandemic-related restrictions to be lifted in the spring. If so, we think euro-zone GDP will regain its pre-pandemic level by the middle of next year, with Germany getting there …
21st January 2021
Having outperformed in H1, the Nordic economies are set for some of the smallest falls in output in Europe this year. Of course, the virus is the key uncertainty for the outlook, but it is encouraging that Denmark’s second wave already looks to have …
20th October 2020
Overview – The second wave of coronavirus has caused the recovery to stall and we forecast euro-zone GDP to stagnate for the next six months, with an outright recession a significant downside risk. We think Spain’s economy will probably contract in Q4, …
19th October 2020
The Nordic economies have weathered the Covid crisis comparatively well, and if our above-consensus forecasts for GDP growth this year prove accurate, the region will see some of the smallest falls in output in the whole of Europe. We forecast output in …
21st July 2020
Overview – The economy has partially recovered from the impact of the coronavirus containment measures imposed earlier in the year, but it will be a long time before it gets back to normal. Even if there are no new nationwide lockdowns, we suspect that …
Low levels of government debt mean that Switzerland and the Nordic economies are comparatively well placed to withstand the acute stresses being placed on the public finances – particularly compared to the euro-zone. That said, output everywhere will take …
21st April 2020
Overview – The lockdown has triggered the biggest economic slump since WW2 with activity likely to drop by around 20% in Q2. As the peak of the epidemic passes, restrictions will be lifted gradually, and household consumption will pick up again. But …
We think growth and inflation will be below consensus in Switzerland and the Nordics this year. Switzerland is most exposed to the prolonged manufacturing recession in Germany and inflation there is likely to be close to zero. Meanwhile, we think the …
22nd January 2020
Overview – We expect economic growth to remain sluggish this year as external demand picks up only slowly and domestic demand softens. Employment growth is slowing, which will cause household incomes and spending to weaken, and investment intentions have …
21st January 2020
In keeping with our bearish view on the euro-zone, our forecasts for GDP growth in Switzerland and the Nordic economies over the coming years are generally well below consensus. Switzerland is most exposed to the industrial woes in Germany, and we expect …
16th October 2019
Overview – Economic growth has slowed to a crawl and is likely to remain anaemic until well into next year, even in the absence of a fresh external shock. Germany is probably in a recession already and we think it will not recover for a long while yet; …
15th October 2019
Markets Overview – We think that a combination of policy loosening by major central banks, an increase in investor risk aversion, and mounting trade tensions will lead to bond yields in Switzerland and the Nordics staying lower for longer and equities …
17th July 2019
Overview – Economic growth is likely to remain anaemic this year and to slow further in 2020 even if downside risks, such as a US auto tariff or no-deal Brexit, do not materialise. The downturn in the German manufacturing sector is spreading to other …
16th July 2019
9th September 2018
