Filtered by Subscriptions: Emerging Europe Economics Use setting Emerging Europe Economics
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Equities not overvalued, but bonds might be …
25th September 2007
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … National Bank of Hungary cuts rates by 25bps …
24th September 2007
The focus this month will be on Hungary, where we think that interest rates are likely to be cut by 25bps, subject to ongoing developments in the currency markets. We expect policy makers elsewhere in the region to remain on hold. … Hungary cut looks on …
18th September 2007
Second quarter GDP growth figures released last month proved to be something of a mixed bag. While Russia and Slovakia continue to boom and overheating remains a concern in Latvia and Lithuania, growth cooled elsewhere. In Poland and the Czech Republic …
17th September 2007
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Turkey: surprise cut in rates, more to follow …
13th September 2007
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Russia: PM resigns, Putin dissolves government …
12th September 2007
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Turkey: Growth to bounce back after poor Q2 …
10th September 2007
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Q2 GDP: Solid growth in Czech Rep. as Hungary stagnates …
7th September 2007
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Slovakia and Romania: Q2 GDP a mixed bag …
4th September 2007
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Poland: Q2 GDP slows, but still above potential …
30th August 2007
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Central Banks become more hawkish …
29th August 2007
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … What have we learnt from the recent sell-off? …
23rd August 2007
Despite recent market volatility, we are upbeat about the growth prospects in Emerging Europe and its four largest economies – Russia, Turkey, Poland and Romania. Given the right policies, the Big Four could achieve sustainable GDP growth rates of between …
21st August 2007
The focus this month will be on Hungary, where an updated inflation report should pave the way for a 25bps cut in interest rates. We expect rates to remain on hold elsewhere in the region. … Hungary to cut as inflation outlook improves (Aug …
14th August 2007
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Massive current account deficits becoming a concern …
9th August 2007
The troubles in US credit markets prompted a sell-off in Emerging Europe assets last month. Equity markets initially fell by around 2-7%, currencies by 2-5% and bond spreads rose by around 40bps as investor risk aversion increased. Those countries with …
8th August 2007
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Russia: Recent industrial strength reflects investment boom …
1st August 2007
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Sell-off in Turkey has further to run …
27th July 2007
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Czech Rep Hikes, More To Come. …
26th July 2007
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Turkey: Election result pleases markets but political risks remain …
23rd July 2007
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Hungary: Fiscal consolidation on track for now, but risks remain …
19th July 2007
The focus this month will be on the Czech Republic, where both we and the markets are predicting a 25bps rise in interest rates to 3%. Elsewhere, interest rates are likely to remain on hold in Hungary and Poland following surprise moves last month. … …
17th July 2007
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Czech Republic: Hawks to prevail over doves …
13th July 2007
Recent events suggest that Central Banks across Emerging Europe could be becoming more activist. Last month, the National Bank of Hungary cut rates by 25bps to 7.75%, without an accompanying moderation in wage growth that it had previously indicated would …
11th July 2007
The focus this month will be on Hungary, where a moderation in wage growth towards 6% should be enough to persuade the Monetary Council to cut interest rates by 25bps to 7.75%. Interest rates are likely to remain on hold elsewhere in the region, though …
6th July 2007
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Baltics: overheating but currency crisis still unlikely …
5th July 2007
There is a strong possibility that this month’s parliamentary elections in Turkey will return a weaker government. If so, then GDP growth could slow to around 4.5% per annum over the medium-term, following a recent period of macroeconomic stability where …
4th July 2007
The growth outlook across Emerging Europe remains good. We expect the region to grow by just over 6% this year, broadly unchanged from the 6.3% expansion achieved last year. Favourable weather conditions boosted output in a number of countries in Q1 of …
29th June 2007
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Surprise moves point to rise in central bank activism …
27th June 2007
Labour markets across Central Europe and the Baltics are tightening. Last month unemployment hit record lows in the Czech Republic and Latvia and wage growth accelerated to fresh highs in Poland. Meanwhile, wages grew faster than productivity in Slovakian …
21st June 2007
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Hungary: Strong wage data reduces chances of rate cut …
19th June 2007
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Romania: red hot economy vulnerable to dip in risk appetite …
14th June 2007
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Strong GDP and inflation point to further Czech rate hikes …
8th June 2007
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Slovakia: strong exports doesn't mean koruna will rise …
6th June 2007
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Rates hiked in Czech Republic, Poland could be next …
31st May 2007
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Russia: rapid M2 growth will not threaten inflation target …
29th May 2007
Radical labour market reforms could boost potential GDP growth in Poland to 7% per annum. But with little political appetite for reform, we think that growth will drop back from 6% this year to around 4-5% over the medium-term instead. While on the face …
23rd May 2007
Preliminary estimates of Q1 GDP have so far confirmed our view that the regional growth outlook remains strong. Growth in Russia accelerated to nearly 8% in the last quarter, only marginally slower than the 8.9% achieved by Slovakia – the shining star of …
17th May 2007
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Hungary: Growth slowest in 10 years as fiscal measures bite …
15th May 2007
Latest indicators suggest that the growth outlook for the region generally remains good. While domestic demand is now slowing in most countries, from very strong levels last year, there are notable exceptions: the Polish and Russian economies show no sign …
4th May 2007
Inflation trends across the region are diverging. In Poland, the Czech Republic and the Baltics, strong growth is starting to hit capacity constraints, causing price pressures to build. Inflation has also picked up in Hungary and Turkey, though this …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Downside risks remain in Turkish markets …
30th April 2007
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Interest rates in Central Europe set to converge …
27th April 2007
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Fears of Russia crash look overdone …
24th April 2007
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Turkish markets could overreact to an Erdogan Presidency …
17th April 2007
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Czech fiscal reforms do not mean EMU entry imminent …
3rd April 2007
The growth outlook across Emerging Europe remains positive. The region should grow by around 6% this year, slower than the 6.5% expansion achieved last year. Strong credit growth and FDI inflows will support demand and, on the supply side, productivity …
29th March 2007
GDP growth in Hungary will slump to 2% this year and 2.5% in 2008 as a result of the government’s latest attempt to shore up the public finances. But once fiscal consolidation is complete, we think medium-term prospects look better. … Hungary: the sick …
15th March 2007
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Fears of a Baltic crisis look overdone …
12th March 2007
While the energy sector made an important contribution to real GDP growth in the early part of this decade, in recent years its direct contribution has fallen, despite rapid price increases. This is because real GDP growth reflects changes in production …
19th February 2007
