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Today’s better-than-expected Q2 GDP figures confirm that Malaysia is pulling out of recession. Malaysia’s upswing will likely be sluggish compared to the region but this should ensure that the reemergence of inflation is slow as well. Bank Negara will …
26th August 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Japan: a good election to lose? …
24th August 2009
This chart book is our monthly review of key data in eight Asian economies. Mainland China, Hong Kong and Taiwan are covered separately in our China Chart Book, and Japan in our Japan Chart Book. … Recovery to bring rate hikes well ahead of the West (Aug …
18th August 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … India and Indonesia first to hike rates in Asia …
17th August 2009
Strong June industrial output adds to the evidence that India’s recovery will be sustained and probably rapid. The poor 2009 monsoon is a wildcard but, at worst, GDP growth this year should only be 0.5- 1.0 percentage points lower than would otherwise …
12th August 2009
Investors may have overestimated the speed of China’s recovery in the first half of 2009. But by focusing too narrowly on headline investment and loans data – such as those released for July today – they run the risk of underestimating its momentum in the …
11th August 2009
The Bank of Korea left its policy rate unchanged today. Economic recovery and concerns over incipient asset bubbles in the housing and equity markets have led some to expect policy rates to rise later this year. However, we believe that policy rates will …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Where did China’s trade surplus go? …
10th August 2009
A little-noticed report published last week by the People’s Bank of China (PBC) gives arguably the best estimate yet of how much China’s economy slowed at the end of last year and how rapidly it has since accelerated. … A new angle on Chinese …
7th August 2009
Bank Indonesia cut its key overnight lending rate by 25bps to 6.5% today as we and the consensus expected. While the accompanying statement leaves the door open for further cuts we think that rates will remain on hold for the rest of the year. Thereafter, …
5th August 2009
Few will be surprised by the suggestion on the front page of today’s FT that China’s growth figures don’t add up. We created our China Activity Proxy (CAP) in an attempt to sidestep scepticism about the official data. It suggests that the recent pace of …
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) left its policy rate unchanged at 3.0% today as expected. The accompanying statement struck a more hawkish note than previous releases and markets are pricing in a sharp increase in the cash rate over the coming 12 …
4th August 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Speculative pressures still supporting Chinese equities …
3rd August 2009
The improvement in economic activity in June confirms that Thai GDP rebounded in Q2, while leading indicators suggest Q3 has started on a strong footing. … Thailand Q2 GDP looks set for solid …
31st July 2009
Japan’s renewed slide into deflation does not appear to have prevented the economy from rebounding last quarter – indeed the boost to real incomes may actually have helped. However, there is a growing risk that the recovery stalls as deflationary …
India’s central bank is increasingly concerned about inflation risks, raising the likelihood that it will hike interest rates before the end of the year. … Reserve Bank of India turns its mind to inflation …
28th July 2009
The future of the dollar will be in the spotlight at high-level meetings between China and the US today and tomorrow. China is understandably concerned about the value of its stock of reserve assets. But when making sense of proposals for international …
27th July 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Do monsoon worries cloud India’s outlook? …
Yesterday’s debt rating upgrade from Moody’s was catch-up and long overdue but does at least acknowledge the increased resilience of the Philippine economy to global shocks and its likely higher long-run trend GDP growth rate. Four factors lie behind the …
24th July 2009
The Bank of Japan’s data on external trade, released this morning, suggest that Japanese exports rebounded by more than 12% q/q in the second quarter. This supports our long-held view that Japan will have returned to positive quarterly GDP growth in Q2 – …
23rd July 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … GDP improvement to fade …
20th July 2009
China’s economic recovery is real but the turnaround has probably not been as sharp as the official data would have us believe. Looking ahead, the rapid growth of lending in the first half of the year sets the stage for strong growth in the second half, …
16th July 2009
The rest of Asia is likely to follow Singapore in showing Q2 GDP significantly improved on Q1. Economic recovery is likely to be sustained in all countries into 2010 but our forecast of only a slow and difficult upswing in the US and Europe means that the …
The revival of confidence in China’s prospects appears to be drawing large amounts of speculative capital back into the economy, swelling the money supply and further raising inflation risks. Much of the inflow is being recycled into purchases of foreign …
15th July 2009
The Bank of Thailand (BoT) today left its overnight rate on hold at 1.25%. Its statement was neutral, but Thai markets are still pricing in policy rate hikes over the next year. We expect rates to stay on hold to the end of 2010. … Bank of Thailand to …
The unexpected downward revisions to the Bank of Japan’s GDP forecasts have unnerved the markets, but we would not read too much into them. In contrast, the decision to prolong the “temporary” measures which are helping to support the financial system and …
Asia’s first Q2 GDP release showed Singapore surged out of recession, and is likely to be followed soon by stronger GDP data from elsewhere in the region. Singapore’s recovery should continue but manufacturing will struggle to sustain anything like its Q2 …
14th July 2009
Japanese consumer confidence remained on its relatively impressive upward trend in June, helped by the latest fiscal stimulus. However, this has come too late to rescue the government, which is facing oblivion in the Lower House elections confirmed today …
13th July 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … China’s loan-fuelled recovery continues …
India’s 2008-09 slowdown seems to have been a short pause rather than anything more serious. The economy is picking up again and a long period of sustained high GDP growth looks likely. Current wholesale price deflation will not last long either and the …
10th July 2009
The Bank of Korea (BoK) left its policy rate unchanged today amid signs that the domestic economy is recovering. Some commentators are expecting rate hikes soon, but we believe the significant downside risks to the economy mean any move in the rest of …
9th July 2009
President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono (SBY) almost certainly has done enough to avoid a September run-off in Indonesia’s presidential elections. The result is good for Indonesia’s economy and markets. The new government should have broader parliamentary …
Today’s headlines from Japan have focused on the continued weakness of machinery orders in May. But we would pay more attention to the continued recovery in the more timely surveys of business confidence, notably the Economy Watchers Survey. … How …
8th July 2009
The ongoing ethnic violence in China’s Xinjiang province has far more in common with last year’s unrest in Tibet than the Tiananmen Square demonstrations two decades ago. Investors will shrug it off, but should also remember that the last 20 years of …
7th July 2009
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) left its policy rate unchanged today while retaining a slight easing bias. Recent domestic data have been better than expected, but we forecast renewed deterioration later this year which will eventually bring another …
India’s Federal Budget announced today focused on keeping GDP growth on its improving track. The budget deficit and debt issuance target are at the high end of market expectations. … India’s budget: Going for growth, cautious on …
6th July 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Regional recession forces faster reform …
While Korea is in much better shape to weather the 2008-09 global crisis than was the case during the Asian Financial Crisis of 1997-98, weak external demand and high domestic household indebtedness will probably prevent a strong recovery this time …
2nd July 2009
Continued rapid loan growth in China makes the emergence of asset bubbles increasingly likely. Around a fifth of loans extended so far this year have been invested in the stock markets, according to one government researcher, and loans may also have …
The 5.9% m/m increase in industrial production in May, which followed an identical rise in April, supports our long-held view that Japan will be among the first of the major economies to return to growth. However, a lacklustre global recovery and …
29th June 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … How long will China’s dollar peg last? …
26th June 2009
Taiwanese interest rates have probably bottomed out. But despite optimism about improving economic relations with China, weaknesses closer to home are likely to keep rates at their current level for a long time. We forecast that rates will not rise until …
25th June 2009
The renewed acceleration in the pace of decline in Japanese exports in May on a year-on-year basis has raised concerns that the fledgling recovery is already faltering. However, a closer look at the data shows that export volumes rose sharply …
24th June 2009
There are good reasons to expect Japanese equities to prove relatively resilient even if foreign appetite fades again: the market is much less overvalued than it used to be; Japan is poised to enjoy a stronger rebound than other major developed economies; …
Our in-house measure of growth in the Chinese economy points to a stronger recovery in May but we still doubt that the economy will meets the government’s target for an 8% expansion this year. … China's growth still falling …
22nd June 2009
Japan’s Business Outlook Survey (BOS), released this morning, has allowed us to firm up our forecast for the Q2 Tankan survey, released on 1st July. We now forecast that the headline index (current conditions reported by large manufacturers) will rebound …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … How long before Asia starts to tighten? …
The recovery in exports has continued and there are now signs that domestic demand is bottoming out too given that the deterioration in labour markets in most places has been, and should stay, mild. Asia faces another weak quarter for GDP in Q2 but the …
18th June 2009
The Bank of Japan shows no signs of repeating its past mistake of tightening policy prematurely, as was the case in both 2000 and 2006. Interest rates will remain near-zero for the foreseeable future. … Bank of Japan won't lead a rush for the …
16th June 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Trade-reliant economies to continue underperforming …
15th June 2009
