Filtered by Subscriptions: Asia Economics Use setting Asia Economics
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Can Japan afford any more fiscal stimulus? …
6th April 2009
China’s official PMI rose above 50 in March. This is good news, but China’s economy is set for a tepid recovery at best. … Has China's recovery …
2nd April 2009
We expect world trade to recover over the next year or so. But if protectionist pressures grow, emerging markets will be hit hard, with those in Eastern Europe likely to suffer the most. … How vulnerable are emerging markets to a rise in …
1st April 2009
On the eve of the G20 meeting, the received wisdom is that China has responded more forcefully to the global crisis than most others. The government budget has indeed turned sharply into deficit, but this is only because revenue growth has collapsed. On …
31st March 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Asian lessons suggest global currency reform will be a slow process …
30th March 2009
The Bank of Japan’s “Tankan” survey, released next Wednesday (1st April), will doubtless show that business conditions worsened further in the first quarter, but probably not by as much as the markets currently anticipate. We also expect the survey to …
23rd March 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Is the Peoples Bank selling off its foreign exchange? …
Today’s announcement that the Bank of Japan is willing to provide subordinated loans to banks continues the drip-feed of unconventional policy measures it has introduced since October. The latest proposals seem half-hearted, like many of the others, but …
17th March 2009
Asia has already taken a big hit from the slump in exports as the global recession has deepened. But the latest data also show that, with bankruptcies rising, job losses mounting and confidence depressed, the weakness in exports has spread to private …
16th March 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Is Japan now past the worst? …
A surge in lending might increase the chances that Chinese interest rates remain on hold this year, but if the economy remains weak, as we expect, the People’s Bank will still be forced to cut again. … Have Chinese interest rates bottomed …
12th March 2009
The Bank of Korea left the benchmark rate on hold at a historic low of 2% today. But with the economy so weak, we think the central bank will resume cutting soon. We expect that rates will fall close to zero by mid-2009 after which the emphasis would …
We expect Japan to record a deficit this year both on trade in goods and services and on the overall current account balance. This sharp turnaround (from large surpluses in 2007) reflects the double hit from the global recession and financial crisis on …
9th March 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … China's investment stimulus mirage …
The renewed optimism about China’s prospects that had supported global equities earlier in the week could start to unravel on the back of today’s disappointing budget. … No new stimulus from …
5th March 2009
The Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) decision to cut the key benchmark rate by 50bp today signals its determination to shore up a flagging economy. But with the key rate still relatively high at 5.0% and with no further fiscal support likely until after the …
4th March 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Seven key issues at China's National People's Congress …
Today’s unexpected decision to keep rates on hold reflects the resilience of the Australian economy in the last few months. But with business confidence collapsing and a big correction still to come in the housing market, a significant economic …
3rd March 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Australian interest rates have much further to fall …
2nd March 2009
The scale of China’s outward investment makes it a potentially powerful force in many markets, but also leaves China with few alternatives to foreign government debt for the bulk of its purchases. … Is China shifting its investment …
26th February 2009
January’s data all but guarantee that collapsing exports will make another large negative contribution to Japan’s GDP in the first quarter. However, imports have also started to drop back, which means that the overall drag from net trade should still be …
25th February 2009
Today’s Q4 GDP numbers underscore the speed at which the Thai economy is deteriorating. With external demand set to contract even more over coming months and domestic demand weakening as well, worse is to come. We expect the Thai central bank to cut the …
23rd February 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Credit squeeze draws India's …
Taiwan’s economy has been hurt by falling global demand but the roots of its weakness lie closer to home. This suggests that Taiwan will fare worse than its neighbours as global demands contracts and also that it will find it harder to recover. After …
18th February 2009
The latest fiscal policy initiatives unveiled today in India will not boost its flagging economy. With exports plummeting and industry facing a severe credit crunch, there is increasing pressure on the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to step up a gear. We …
16th February 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Is there anything left of the Asia decoupling story? …
China’s banks seem to be playing their part in financing the government’s stimulus plans. But the rest of the economic data is bleak. … Surging bank loans not enough to save …
12th February 2009
With the economy reeling from the slowdown overseas and a domestic credit crunch, and with limited room for fiscal easing, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will cut rates fairly soon. We think the RBI could cut the key repo rate by 50bp as early as next …
The Bank of Korea’s decision to cut the policy rate by 50bp to a fresh low of 2.0% signals its determination to support a crumbling economy. We had already expected rates to fall to 1%, but the further deterioration in the incoming data suggest that they …
The speed and extent of the collapse in Japanese exports should at least mean that the immediate adjustment to weaker global demand has now largely run its course. The fall-out in terms of the damage to confidence, additional production cuts, growing …
10th February 2009
We expect next Monday’s preliminary data to show that the Japanese economy contracted by around 3.5% q/q in the fourth quarter of last year (an annualised rate of 15%). However, Japan may well then end up as one of the first of the major economies to …
9th February 2009
A surge in bank lending in China has raised confidence that the government’s efforts to stimulate the economy are already bearing fruit. Shares prices in Shanghai have risen 22% since the start of the year, in part as a response. Yet increased lending …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Korean rates homing in on zero …
The sustainability of China’s purchases of US Treasuries is once again being called into question. While the circumstances have shifted, much of the concern is familiar and still, we think, misguided. … Is China still the US Treasury's best …
4th February 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … US-China relations start to fray …
2nd February 2009
As interest rates have fallen rapidly across much of the region, policy focus has turned towards fiscal measures to support Asia’s crumbling economies. But with most stimulus packages geared towards infrastructure spending with long implementation lags, …
28th January 2009
The Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) decision to keep the key policy rate unchanged has reinforced market expectations that rates will remain on hold in the next few month. But with the economy in the midst of a severe credit crunch, exports plunging and …
27th January 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … 2009 looking like a rerun of 1998 …
26th January 2009
The Bank of Japan’s modest programme of asset purchases is unlikely to be the last word, especially given the deterioration in economic and financial conditions acknowledged today in its own forecasts and Senior Loan Officer Survey. … Bank of Japan has a …
22nd January 2009
Some glimmers of light in the monthly data from China are raising hopes that the world’s third largest economy may be through the worst after quarterly growth slumped in Q4. But we fear that incoming data will disappoint and economic growth will slow from …
There is still no universally accepted single cause of the Great Depression. But our analysis suggests that the main culprit for the role of catalyst was the bursting of the bubbles in the equity and commodity markets, accompanied by falling house prices. …
19th January 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … China's trade surplus to continue rising in 2009 …
Hot capital continues to flow out of China, although October’s flood has since diminished. This raises the chances of a modest renminbi depreciation against the dollar over the coming year. … China still suffering hot capital …
13th January 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Japan may be the best of a bad lot …
12th January 2009
The Bank of Korea’s decision to cut interest rates to a new low of 2.5% signals its determination to support a flagging economy. However, with exports plunging and domestic demand extremely weak, the economy will slide into recession for the first time …
9th January 2009
China’s economic growth rate has halved in 18 months. We estimate that GDP increased by little more than 6% y/y in the fourth quarter after 9% in the third and a peak of 12.6% in the second quarter of 2007. Yet exporters are only just starting to suffer, …
8th January 2009
The sudden collapse in exports in November confirms that Asia is heading for a dramatic slowdown in 2009. With global demand for Asian goods set to weaken further in the months ahead, we expect GDP growth in Asia ex-Japan to slow to roughly 4.5% next …
24th December 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … China’s New Year fuel price reforms fall short of expectations …
22nd December 2008
The Bank of Japan effectively reverted to a zero interest rate policy today and edged towards quantitative easing, although the embrace of QE is still half-hearted. We are certainly not impressed by the government’s latest “economic stimulus package”. … …
19th December 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Could China end up making things worse in 2009? …
18th December 2008
