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While Emerging Asia continues to face headwinds, loose fiscal and monetary policy in most economies should continue to support demand over the next couple of years, and we expect regional growth to remain broadly flat at around 4.5% in 2017-18. However, a …
4th October 2016
The PMIs for Emerging Asia in September were mostly encouraging, suggesting that manufacturing conditions in the region are slowly gaining a firmer footing. However, the struggles of Korea’s manufacturing sector appear to have deepened. … Manufacturing …
3rd October 2016
When Rodrigo Duterte became president of the Philippines on 30 th June, we warned that although the fundamentals were in place for the economy to grow strongly, his election had made the outlook much less certain. With his first 100 days as president …
30th September 2016
Taiwan’s central bank (CBC) kept its policy rate on hold today at 1.375%, but with growth likely to remain subdued and inflationary pressures very weak, we think it will resume its easing cycle soon. … Taiwan’s central bank to resume easing cycle next …
29th September 2016
The weakness in Vietnam’s economy so far this year has been down to the agriculturesector, which has been hit hard by a drought. But with weather patterns nowreturning to normal, growth should rebound soon. Meanwhile, other sectors of theeconomy should …
Financial markets in the Philippines have fallen in September amid growing concern over the increasingly erratic behaviour of the country’s new president, Rodrigo Duterte. … Duterte’s antics hits sentiment in the …
28th September 2016
In the six months since Myanmar’s new civilian government took power, it has made a decent start in addressing some of the country’s problems. However, Myanmar will not fulfil its potential unless the government does more to restore macro-stability and …
23rd September 2016
With the economy growing strongly but inflation under control, today’s decision by the central bank inthe Philippines (BSP) to keep its main policy rate on hold at 3.0% came as no surprise. Looking ahead,we think the central bank will be in little hurry …
22nd September 2016
Today’s decision by Bank Indonesia (BI) to loosen monetary policy demonstrates that the central bank’s focus is clearly on supporting the economy. Although BI signalled that the rate cutting cycle is not yet over, with the US Fed likely to raise rates …
Financial markets in the Philippines have fallen back in recent weeks amid growing concern over the increasingly erratic behaviour of the country’s new president, Rodrigo Duterte. Following his election in May, Duterte helped to sooth the nerves of …
20th September 2016
Recent claims by Thai exporters and policymakers that a “strong” baht is to blame for the country’s poor export performance are wrong. The baht does not look strong relative to the currencies of its competitors or its own history. Instead, low global …
16th September 2016
GDP figures published today show economic growth in Sri Lanka slowed sharply inthe second quarter of 2016. Given the serious doubts that remain about the reliabilityof the data, we are wary of reading too much into today’s figures. But the key point …
15th September 2016
The Bank of Thailand (BoT) left its policy rate unchanged at 1.50% today, but with growth set to slowand inflationary pressures very low, further easing is likely in the coming quarters. … Thailand holds policy rate, but easing can’t be ruled …
14th September 2016
With the economy showing some signs of improvement, the Bank of Korea (BoK) unsurprisingly kept its policy rate unchanged at 1.25% today. While benign inflation will give the BoK scope to keep rates low, concerns about high household debt are likely to …
9th September 2016
The Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN), which has just concluded its annual meeting in Laos, has little chance of becoming the kind of single market and production base which could one day allow it to rival China as the workshop of the world. …
Following its move to cut rates in response to rising downside risks to growth at its last meeting in July, Malaysia’s central bank (BNM) today left its policy rate unchanged at 3.0%. With growth still on track to meet BNM’s forecast of 4.0-4.5% in 2016 …
7th September 2016
Rapid economic growth, surging imports and strong credit growth have fuelled fears that the Philippines is overheating and that the central bank will be soon be forced to hike interest rates to bring the economy under control. We think such fears are …
5th September 2016
The outbreak of the Zika virus in Singapore has dominated local headlines, but while it is an important public health issue the economic impact will be limited. … How big a threat is Zika to …
2nd September 2016
The August PMIs for Emerging Asia suggest manufacturing conditions in the region remain lacklustre. Focusing on the two economies where the PMIs most closely track the hard data, there are signs of improvement in Taiwan’s manufacturing sector, but Korea’s …
1st September 2016
Asian financial markets generally shrugged off last Friday’s comments from US Fed Chair Janet Yellen, in which she suggested the likelihood of an early rate hike in the US has increased. … Asian markets calm following Yellen’s …
31st August 2016
The central bank in Sri Lanka (CBSL) today left interest rates on hold despite a continued acceleration in credit growth, high inflation and a weak currency. We think another interest rate hike is only amatter of time. … Sri Lanka holds rates, but further …
30th August 2016
Economic growth across Emerging Asia accelerated last quarter, as strong domestic demand compensated for weak exports. But while this “decoupling” has enabled Emerging Asia to shrug-off the weakness in global demand, it has come at a cost. Private sector …
26th August 2016
The past month has given investors more reasons to be optimistic on the outlook for Indonesia’s economy. The first piece of good news came in late July when it was announced that the highly-respected and pro-reform, Sri Mulyani Indrawati, would be …
24th August 2016
Bank Indonesia (BI) left its new policy rate, the seven-day reverse repo, on hold today at 5.25%, but with growth struggling and inflationary pressures low, a rate cut is likely sooner rather than later. … Easing likely to resume in Indonesia …
19th August 2016
The recent improvement in export performance across Emerging Asia owes more to the fading effects of the collapse in commodity prices on export values than a recovery in underlying demand. We expect demand for Asian exports to remain weak over the next …
Today’s Q2 GDP data for the Philippines show that President Rodrigo Duterte has taken over a country in good shape. Although the foundations are in place for growth to remain strong, Duterte’s election has made the outlook more uncertain. … Philippines …
18th August 2016
Thailand’s growth slowed last quarter, and the recent bombings in some of the country’s key tourist destinations present a significant downside risk to economic activity. … Thailand GDP …
15th August 2016
Given the current backdrop of weak growth, low inflation and a stable currency, Bank Indonesia is likely to cut its new policy rate, the seven-day reverse repo rate, at its upcoming meeting. But more important for the economy will be what happens to …
12th August 2016
Malaysia’s economy slowed further in the second quarter of 2016. With the prices of its main commodity exports set to remain low and the room for policy stimulus limited, a strong rebound is not on the cards. … Malaysia GDP …
With the economy in good shape and inflation under control, today’s decision by the central bank inthe Philippines (BSP) to keep its main policy rate on hold at 3.0% came as no surprise. Looking ahead, we think the central bank will be in little hurry to …
11th August 2016
The Bank of Korea (BoK) today left its policy rate unchanged at a record low of 1.25%. With fiscal stimulus in the pipeline, we think it will take another downturn in the growth outlook to convince the BoK to deliver additional rate cuts. … Bank of …
Today’s revised estimate of Singapore’s second quarter GDP suggests the economy is still struggling for momentum. What’s more, there are a number of headwinds that will likely drag growth lower over the next year or so. … Singapore GDP (Q2 …
Indonesia’s growth picked up to 5.2% y/y in Q2 from 4.9% the quarter before. While we think the worst for Indonesia’s economy is now over, a combination of fiscal tightening and low commodity prices will keep growth stuck at around 5% over the next couple …
5th August 2016
Thailand’s upcoming referendum on a new constitution is unlikely to provide a lasting solution to the country’s political problems, and there is a real risk that tensions could once again flare up. The economy, which has been hit hard by the political …
The Bank of Thailand’s (BoT) decision to keep its policy rate unchanged at 1.5% today came as no surprise. However, with price pressures benign and growth likely to slow later this year, we think a rate cut is more likely than not in the coming months. …
3rd August 2016
Economic growth in Malaysia and Indonesia has slowed markedly over the past couple of years. While we think the worst is now over for the region’s two main commodity producers, a strong rebound is unlikely in either country. The collapse in commodity …
2nd August 2016
Manufacturing conditions in Emerging Asia remained lacklustre in July. In the two economies where the PMIs most closely track the hard data, there are some signs of improvement in Taiwan’s manufacturing sector, but the nascent recovery in Korea’s appears …
1st August 2016
Financial markets in the region have generally got off to a good start to H2. While we remain upbeat about the prospects for Asian equities, we expect Asian currencies to weaken a little against the US dollar over the coming quarters. … Asian markets set …
29th July 2016
Pakistan’s three-year arrangement with the IMF comes to an end next month. An improvement in the external position means it is unlikely that there will be any immediate problems, but the IMF does appear to have had a positive influence on policymaking, …
While today’s GDP figures show that the worst is now probably over for Taiwan’s economy, we expect growth to remain very weak against a backdrop of subdued export demand, falling property prices and limited support from fiscal or monetary policy. … Taiwan …
The central bank in Sri Lanka (CBSL) today raised its deposit and lending rates by 50bp each in whatwas Indrajit Coomaraswamy’s first monetary policy meeting as governor. With credit growing at anunsustainable pace, inflation rising and the currency …
28th July 2016
Investors in the Philippines have responded positively to the marked change inrhetoric of the country’s new president, Rodrigo Duterte. After spooking markets in the run-up to May’s presidential elections with a string of controversial comments, Duterte …
27th July 2016
Korea’s growth picked up in the second quarter of 2016, but we expect the economy to lose momentum over the coming quarters against a backdrop of mounting cyclical and structural headwinds. … Korea GDP (Q2 …
26th July 2016
Second quarter GDP figures for Taiwan, due to be published over the coming week, are likelyto show the economy remains very weak. With subdued global demand continuing to drag onexports, the property market facing growing problems and little chance of an …
22nd July 2016
Bank Indonesia (BI) left interest rates on hold today, but further loosening is likely sooner rather than later. We think the shift to a new policy rate, which formally comes into effect next month, will be the trigger for more easing. … Bank Indonesia …
21st July 2016
Low interest rates should continue to support economic growth in Emerging Asia for the rest of the year. Further ahead, however, we expect regional growth to slow. Much of this slowdown will be driven by China, where reduced policy stimulus and excess …
18th July 2016
Loose monetary policy should help to limit downside risks to economic growth over the coming months across most of Emerging Asia, but further ahead we expect regional growth to slow. Much of this slowdown will be driven by China, with growth around the …
15th July 2016
Following its move last month to cut rates in response to rising downside risks to growth, the Bank of Korea (BoK) today left its policy rate unchanged at a record low of 1.25%. We think it will take a severe deterioration in the growth outlook to …
14th July 2016
Today’s advanced estimate of Singapore’s second quarter GDP suggests the economy has gained some momentum after a sluggish start to the year . However, domestic headwinds are building and a robust export recovery looks unlikely . … Singapore GDP (Q2 …
Malaysia's central bank (BNM) today unexpectedly lowered its policy rate by 25bp to 3.0%, adding to the list of Asian central banks that have cut rates this year. But with growth still on track to meet BNM's forecast of 4.0-4.5% in 2016, we doubt this …
13th July 2016
