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Today’s figures show GDP growth in the Philippines slowed in the second quarter. Looking ahead, we expect the slowdown in GDP growth to continue over the second half of this year as tighter monetary policy and higher inflation weigh on consumer spending … …
9th August 2018
The Bank of Thailand left its policy rate at 1.50% today, but the hawkish shift in the central bank’s tone means a rate hike is now likely before the end of the year. We are revising our end-2018 policy rate forecast to 1.75%, from 1.50% previously. … …
8th August 2018
Indonesia’s growth picked up to 5.3% y/y in Q2, from 5.1% in Q1, with a slowdown in investment growth compensated for by a pick-up in consumption and government spending. However, we doubt Indonesia’s economy can maintain its current pace of expansion, …
6th August 2018
Rising inflationary pressures mean that the central bank of the Philippines (BSP) is almost certain to raise interest rates at its meeting on Thursday, the only question is by how much. … Philippines central bank to turn more …
3rd August 2018
Given the recent rebound in inflation, it was no surprise that the central bank of Sri Lanka (CBSL) decided to leave policy on hold today. But with growth continuing to disappoint and inflation likely to drop back again by October, we still expect another …
Rising trade tensions between the US and China pose a major threat to the economic outlook for the region. The impact of the measures announced so far by President Trump should be small, and will be largely offset by looser fiscal and monetary policy and …
1st August 2018
Most of Emerging Asia’s PMIs fell in July. However, there were no clear signs in the PMI surveys that suggest the first tranche of US tariffs on Chinese goods that came into effect in early July have had a significant impact on the rest of the region. …
The rebound in the Pakistani rupee, which has gained around 4% against the US dollar since last week’s election, is likely to prove fleeting. The exact trigger behind the surprise jump in the currency is unclear, but it has been linked to rumours that …
31st July 2018
GDP growth in Taiwan rebounded last quarter to the second-fastest pace in more than three years. But with external headwinds increasing, we expect the economy to soften over the second half of the year and into 2019. … Taiwan GDP (Q2 …
Asian equities have rebounded over the past week, helped in part by easing fears of a global trade war after the successful trade meeting between US President Donald Trump and EU President Jean-Claude Juncker. Meanwhile, the latest trade data suggest that …
27th July 2018
Imran Khan looks set to be confirmed as Pakistan’s next prime minister just as the economy teeters on the brink of a full-blown economic crisis. His plans to boost social spending will have to be shelved. Instead, monetary and fiscal policy are likely to …
26th July 2018
Korea’s economy slowed in Q2, and mounting external and domestic headwinds suggest growth is likely to ease further over the coming quarters. … Korea GDP …
Hun Sen is likely to record his fifth election victory on Sunday against the backdrop of an economy riding high on the back of a Chinese investment boom. Chinese money should help to support strong growth in the short term, but it is causing growing …
25th July 2018
Whichever party wins Pakistan’s upcoming general election will take over an economy on the brink of a balance of payments crisis. Growth is likely to slow sharply regardless of who wins Wednesday’s election. … Pakistan: Major challenges await new …
20th July 2018
The decision earlier this week to raise the hourly minimum wage by a further 11% next year will undermine President Moon Jae-in’s goal to reduce inequality and boost private consumption growth. … Korea’s minimum wage policy …
Bank Indonesia (BI) left interest rates on hold today, but the hawkish tone of Governor Perry Warjiyo’s press conference and the accompanying policy statement reaffirm our view that further monetary policy tightening is likely later in the year. … …
19th July 2018
The removal of the Goods and Service Tax (GST) was the key reason behind the sharp fall in inflation in Malaysia last month. Although inflation is likely to remain low for the rest of the year, we expect monetary policy to stay unchanged throughout 2018. …
18th July 2018
The big push to update the Philippine’s infrastructure has led to a number of painful side effects, including a worsening external position, a falling currency and an increase in inflation. However, these problems should prove temporary and improving the …
17th July 2018
The State Bank of Pakistan’s (SBP) 100bp hike to its policy rate on Saturday, along with today’s devaluation of the rupee, underlines growing concerns about the country’s precarious external position. Further rate hikes are likely over the coming months …
16th July 2018
Despite the further escalation in trade tensions between the US and China over the past week, there is little sign that policymakers are starting to panic. … Trade war risks rise, but no panic …
13th July 2018
Today’s advanced estimate of Singapore’s GDP suggests the economy lost some momentum in Q2, and we expect growth to cool further in the coming quarters against a backdrop of slower global growth and higher interest rates. Rising trade tensions could …
The Bank of Korea (BoK) kept its policy rate on hold at 1.50% today, and while there was a dissenter favouring a rate hike, rising downside growth risks, benign inflation and limited external vulnerabilities suggest imminent policy tightening is not on …
12th July 2018
US plans to impose tariffs on an additional $200bn of Chinese imports represent a marked escalation of the ongoing trade tensions between the US and China. The tariffs would have knock-on effects on the rest of the region, with Taiwan and Malaysia likely …
11th July 2018
In the event that rising trade tensions lead to a significant fall in US imports from China, it would have a sizeable impact, not just on China, but also on other countries such as Taiwan and Malaysia which export a lot of intermediate goods to China. …
Malaysia’s central bank (BNM) left interest rates unchanged at today’s scheduled monetary policy meeting, but it shifted to a more dovish tone under its new governor. While we are forecasting no change to policy this year or next, with inflation set to …
The Malaysian government’s decision earlier this week to suspend work on the US$20bn East Coast Railway Link points to a bleak future for Chinese investment in the country. Halting work on these projects is likely to lead to a slowdown in investment …
6th July 2018
The June PMIs for Emerging Asia indicate that the region’s manufacturing sectors remained in decent health. Meanwhile, Korean export data suggest export growth in the rest of the region likely ended Q2 on a solid note. … Manufacturing PMIs …
2nd July 2018
Bank Indonesia’s (BI) decision to hike interest rates by a more-than-expected 50 basis points today suggests that the central bank’s priority over the coming months will be to support the currency. With the rupiah likely to remain under downward pressure …
29th June 2018
The strong showing of opposition parties in local elections held across Indonesia on Wednesday is bad news for President Joko Widodo. They could prompt a shift in policymaking towards more populist measures as the president attempts to shore up support …
Vietnam’s economy recorded another quarter of strong growth in the second quarter of the year. While growth should remain robust in the near term, helped by continued solid export demand and loose monetary policy, risks are building. A full-blown trade …
Rising US-China trade tensions, fears over the outlook for China’s domestic economy and the uncertain outlook over US monetary policy have all weighed heavily on the region’s financial markets over the past month. The biggest falls have been in China, but …
28th June 2018
Two years after coming to power, President Duterte of the Philippines has not been the disaster for the economy that some feared. Growth has remained strong, while economic policy has been left in the hands of technocrats, who have pushed through a number …
26th June 2018
Over the past week the central banks of Indonesia, the Philippines and India have all signalled that further monetary policy tightening is only a matter of time. Elsewhere, however, with inflation under control and worries about a potential trade war …
22nd June 2018
With economic growth fairly strong and inflationary pressures subdued, Taiwan’s central bank (CBC) decided today to keep its policy rate unchanged at 1.375%. The dovish tone of the Bank’s accompanying statement, which revealed increasing concerns among …
21st June 2018
Given the hawkish tone of the central bank’s statement, a further rate increase in the Philippines now looks likely. We originally thought today’s hike would mark the end of the tightening cycle. But with inflation close to peaking, we are only pencilling …
20th June 2018
The Bank of Thailand (BoT) left its policy rate on hold today and the accompanying statement makes clear that monetary policy will remain accommodative for a while longer yet. With inflation benign and external vulnerabilities limited, we think the BoT …
Trade tensions between the US and China have been ratcheted up another notch after US President Donald Trump yesterday threatened to impose a 10% tariff on a further US$200bn of Chinese imports. Taiwan, Malaysia and Singapore are among the countries that …
19th June 2018
Today’s GDP figures show that Sri Lanka’s economy made a weak start to 2018. While growth should pick up over the coming quarters, the recovery is likely to be weak by past standards. … Sri Lanka GDP …
18th June 2018
Thailand’s working age population is forecast to start shrinking from next year, presenting a headwind to the country’s economic prospects. With productivity growth set to remain weak, economic growth is unlikely to average much above 2.5% over the medium …
15th June 2018
Today’s historic summit between Donald Trump and Kim Jong Un represents an extraordinary turn of events, and comes just a year after it appeared North Korea could be heading for a devastating war with the US. In this Update , we answer five key questions …
12th June 2018
The latest devaluation in the Pakistani rupee has once again put the spotlight on the country’s precarious external position. The government will hope to keep the situation under control until next month’s general election is out of the way, but Pakistan …
11th June 2018
Tomorrow’s historic summit between Donald Trump and Kim Jong Un in Singapore has raised the (distant) prospect of international sanctions against North Korea being lifted, a move that one day could even pave the way for the country’s integration into the …
Next week’s summit between Donald Trump and North Korean leader, Kim Jung Un, is a big deal politically, but even if a major breakthrough is announced, the impact on South Korea’s financial markets and economy is likely to be fairly modest. … How will the …
8th June 2018
The resignation of Malaysia’s central bank governor amid accusations of corruption at the Bank is an encouraging sign that the new government’s anti-corruption drive is gathering pace. The new governor, who has not yet been announced, will take over …
6th June 2018
Having nudged higher again in May, inflation in the Philippines probably has a little further to rise. But with food and energy price pressures set to ease over the coming months and the impact of indirect tax hikes set to drop out of the y/y comparison …
5th June 2018
GDP growth across Emerging Asia edged up slightly in the first quarter of the year, and should continue to hold up relatively well in the near term, despite the drag from higher oil prices and weaker export demand. … What next for …
1st June 2018
Most of Emerging Asia’s PMIs picked up in May. However, the manufacturing sector in Taiwan, one of the economies where the PMIs most closely track the hard data, appears to be losing momentum. … Manufacturing PMIs …
Emerging Asia has not been spared in the recent EM sell-off, but its financial markets have held up better than those in other EM regions. … Asian markets stumble in …
31st May 2018
Bank Indonesia (BI) hiked rates by 25bp today (its second increase in two weeks). We expect further hikes later this year, but we doubt that a repeat of the aggressive tightening cycle seen in 2013 is on the cards. … New Bank Indonesia governor …
30th May 2018
In a massive political upset, the incumbent Barisan Nasional (BN) coalition led by Najib Razak was ousted by a resurgent opposition led by former Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad in Malaysia’s 14 th general election. The result brought an end to BN’s …
28th May 2018
