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Overview – We expect economic growth across the region to remain subdued, with most economies set to record below-trend and below-consensus growth this year. While lower interest rates will provide some support to growth, this boost is likely to be offset …
25th March 2025
Overview – We expect another year of below-trend and below-consensus GDP growth in most of Asia in 2025, as tight fiscal policy and weak exports weigh on output. In China, a slowdown in construction will act as a further drag. Inflation is back to (or …
13th December 2024
Overview – We are expecting another year of below-trend economic growth in 2025 across Asia, as subdued exports, worsening labour markets and tighter fiscal policy weigh on demand. Inflation is back to target nearly everywhere. With growth set to struggle …
23rd September 2024
Overview – We expect economic growth in most countries in Asia to slow in the second half of 2024, as tighter fiscal policy, high interest rates and weaker global growth all weigh on demand. Inflation is back to target in most countries and likely to …
20th June 2024
Overview – With inflation easing and domestic demand struggling in much of emerging Asia, central banks are likely to start cutting interest rates soon. The one remaining concern for policymakers is the fear of further falls in their currencies. But this …
27th March 2024
Overview – Economic growth in most of Emerging Asia is likely to slow in the near term as weak global demand and high interest rates weigh on prospects. With growth set to struggle and inflation likely to ease, interest rate cuts are likely to come on to …
7th December 2023
Overview – GDP growth across most of Emerging Asia has struggled over the past year and we expect growth to remain weak in the near term as tight monetary policy at home and subdued activity abroad weigh on demand. Next year should be a little better, but …
25th September 2023
Overview – GDP growth has slowed sharply across most of Emerging Asia since the middle of last year and looks set to remain weak over the coming quarters, as tight monetary policy at home and subdued activity abroad weigh on demand. We anticipate …
22nd June 2023
Overview – High interest rates and weak export demand will weigh on the region’s economies this year, and we expect below-trend and below-consensus growth in most countries in 2023. The exceptions are China, which has rebounded strongly on the back of a …
24th March 2023
Click here to read the full report. Overview – Economic growth will slow sharply in most of the region in 2023 as higher interest rates and weaker exports drag on demand. Our GDP growth forecasts are below consensus in most countries. With inflationary …
13th December 2022
Overview – Economic growth in most countries looks set to slow sharply next year as weaker exports and higher interest rates weigh on activity. With price pressures starting to ease, we expect central banks to begin to shift their focus from containing …
24th October 2022
Overview – Further interest rate hikes are likely across the region in the near term, and we have raised some of our year-end forecasts to reflect growing concern among the region’s policymakers about inflation. However, with economic growth likely to …
20th July 2022
Overview – Our GDP growth forecasts are generally above the consensus, but with higher commodity prices and weaker global demand set to weigh on economic recoveries, growth across much of Emerging Asia will be slower than we had anticipated in our last …
28th April 2022
Overview – Omicron should prove no more than a small stumbling block for Asia. Our forecasts are for above-trend and above-consensus growth in most countries this year. India, Indonesia and Korea are likely to raise interest rates in 2022, but with …
25th January 2022
Overview – Growth in China will weaken further over the coming year as a downturn deepens in industry and construction. The outlook for the rest of the region is improving. We expect many economies to rebound strongly as governments ease restrictions on …
20th October 2021
Overview – Surging infections across South East Asia and the slow progress of vaccine rollouts mean that COVID-19 will continue to cause widespread economic disruption across large parts of the region until at least the end of the year. We have cut our …
20th July 2021
Overview – Asia’s emergence from the pandemic has been threatened recently by a resurgence in infections across parts of the region. Most of South Asia, the Philippines and Thailand have had to introduce new restrictions to contain outbreaks of the virus, …
21st April 2021
Overview – Our forecasts for GDP growth across Emerging Asia in 2021 are much higher than consensus expectations across the board, but fresh outbreaks in a number of countries mean the risks to our forecasts are to the downside. Korea , Malaysia, Hong …
18th January 2021
Overview With the virus under control in most of the region, Emerging Asia is bouncing back from the crisis faster than other parts of the world. But the pace of recovery is uneven. China is leading the way. In the countries hit worst economically, the …
8th October 2020
Overview Economic activity is rebounding across the region, but the speed of the recovery varies significantly by country. Daily life in China, Vietnam and Taiwan has already returned largely to normal, thanks to their early success in containing the …
15th July 2020
Overview – With exports collapsing and countries across the region implementing draconian restrictions on travel and commerce, economic activity in Emerging Asia will contract sharply this year. Parts of South East Asia and Hong Kong are likely to be the …
15th April 2020
Overview – Most countries in Emerging Asia should stage a gradual recovery over the coming year helped by continued policy support. Several have announced expansionary budgets or fiscal stimulus packages, while most central banks are likely to cut …
16th January 2020
Overview – Regional growth is likely to remain very weak, with slower growth in China likely to offset a modest recovery in the rest of the region. China’s economy has remained resilient in recent months. But with the boom in property construction coming …
10th October 2019
Overview – We expect economic growth across Emerging Asia to remain weak this year, with many countries set to grow at their slowest pace in a decade. China’s economy has stabilised in recent months thanks in large part to a resilient property sector. But …
11th July 2019
