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With GDP growth set to struggle and inflation to remain low, central banks are likely to continue to cut interest rates over the coming months. Overall, we expect most central banks to cut rates by 50bps-200bps between now and the end of the year. US …
27th March 2025
Asia Chart Pack (February 2025) …
26th February 2025
Asia Chart Pack (January 2025) …
30th January 2025
Asia Chart Pack (December 2024) …
30th December 2024
Asia Chart Pack (November 2024) …
29th November 2024
Asia Chart Pack (October 2024) …
29th October 2024
Asia Chart Pack (September 2024) …
30th September 2024
Asia Chart Pack (August 2024) …
30th August 2024
Emerging Asia Chart Pack (July 2024) …
31st July 2024
Emerging Asia Chart Pack (June 2024) …
25th June 2024
Headline inflation across most of Emerging Asia is now either below or only slightly above central bank targets. Nevertheless, policymakers have struck a slightly more hawkish tone recently due to concerns about currency weakness. But we think that weaker …
30th May 2024
Emerging Asia Chart Pack (April 2024) …
30th April 2024
Emerging Asia Chart Pack (March 2024) …
26th March 2024
Emerging Asia Chart Pack (February 2024) …
28th February 2024
Emerging Asia Chart Pack (Jan. 2024) …
31st January 2024
This is a special Global Economics Chart Pack that provides clients with key analysis to make sense of the macro and market impact of the disruptions to maritime shipping. The charts in this document come from our brand-new shipping dashboard , which …
25th January 2024
Emerging Asia Chart Pack (December 2023) …
27th December 2023
Emerging Asia Chart Pack (Nov. 2023) …
28th November 2023
Emerging Asia Chart Pack (Oct. 2023) …
31st October 2023
Emerging Asia Chart Pack (Sep. 2023) …
27th September 2023
GDP growth has slowed sharply across most of Emerging Asia since the middle of last year and looks set to remain weak over the coming quarters, as tight monetary policy at home and subdued activity abroad weigh on demand. We anticipate below-trend and …
30th August 2023
GDP growth looks set to remain weak over the coming quarters, as tight monetary policy at home and subdued activity abroad weigh on demand. Meanwhile, inflationary pressures should continue to ease, as below-trend growth, easing disruption from the …
24th July 2023
The latest monthly activity data suggest that most economies struggled in the second quarter of the year. While tourism arrivals are continuing to rise, there are signs in a few places that the recovery is starting to level off, with international …
29th June 2023
A strong rebound in tourism provided a big boost to growth in Thailand and Hong Kong last quarter, which along with China, were the three best-performing countries in Emerging Asia in Q1. But for the rest of the region, the GDP figures painted a …
24th May 2023
Vietnam became the first country in the region to start loosening policy when it lowered its refinancing rate at the end of March. We don’t think it will be long before other central banks in Asia start to cut rates, with the Bank of Korea set to be next, …
26th April 2023
Note: Join our 6 th April online briefing all about the risks to EMs from banking turmoil. Register now . The turmoil in the global banking system over the past month has had a limited impact on Asia – currencies have held up well and outflows of capital …
30th March 2023
Asian currencies have dropped back over the past few weeks against the US dollar, with the two worst hit currencies (the Thai baht and the Korean won) down around 6% against the greenback since the start of the month. Renewed concern about inflation in …
27th February 2023
Asian currencies have continued to rebound against the US dollar over the past month, and most are now up by around 5-15% against the greenback since early November. Optimism around China’s reopening and expectations for a Fed policy pivot have been the …
30th January 2023
The past few weeks have brought mostly good news on the inflation front, with the headline rate dropping back in most countries in November. (See Chart 4.) Less encouragingly, however, core inflation has continued to rise and is now at multi-year highs …
20th December 2022
Most countries in the region have now reported GDP figures for the third quarter, and growth was generally faster than we (and the consensus) had expected. One factor behind this resilience was the strength of private consumption, which held up well in …
29th November 2022
Central banks across the region have been stepping up the pace of intervention in foreign exchange markets to support their currencies, resulting in a drop in FX reserves. In most countries, reserves are down by around 10% from their recent peaks, and …
31st October 2022
Monetary policy makers across Emerging Asia remain in hawkish mode – every central bank in the region with the exceptions of China and Vietnam has now raised interest rates this year – and further hikes are likely over the next couple of months. …
15th September 2022
GDP figures for Korea released earlier today showed economic growth accelerated in the second quarter thanks to a strong rebound in private consumption as the economy enjoyed a reopening bounce. This follows the scrapping of most of the remaining COVID-19 …
26th July 2022
After more than two years in the doldrums, Thailand’s tourism sector is finally showing signs of life. Arrivals in May reached 520,000 – a 77% increase from the previous month and 19% of the level reached in the same month of 2019. Spending by foreign …
27th June 2022
Talks between Pakistan and the IMF ended last week without agreement, but the subsequent decision by the government to cut back fuel subsidies has cleared one of the major hurdles towards a deal being agreed. Financial markets in the country reacted well …
30th May 2022
Central banks across the region have recently turned more hawkish. Over the past month or so, policymakers in Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, Sri Lanka, India and Pakistan have all tightened policy. Governor Benjamin Diokno in the Philippines has also hinted …
29th April 2022
Successful vaccination campaigns allowed governments to keep economies open during the recent Omicron waves, and our Mobility Trackers suggest that activity held up much better than we had originally anticipated. Indeed, GDP figures for Vietnam published …
29th March 2022
The recent jump in oil prices poses a significant upside risk to our inflation and interest rate forecasts for this year. Central banks would normally “look through” a one-off jump in the price level and try and cushion the blow to real incomes by keeping …
28th February 2022
The Omicron variant is spreading quickly across Asia. Daily virus numbers are now at record levels in Korea, Singapore and the Philippines. However, the economic impact of Omicron is shaping up to be much smaller than previous virus waves. Restrictions, …
27th January 2022
Most countries in Emerging Asia have now recorded cases of Omicron, and the experience from elsewhere in the world suggests that it is only a matter of time before there is widespread community transmission of the new variant. Many places have already …
22nd December 2021
Amid all the uncertainty caused by the arrival of Omicron (for our initial thoughts see this Global Update ), one thing we can say with some conviction is that the new variant is further bad news for the region’s beleaguered tourism industry. Up until …
29th November 2021
The near-term outlook for South East Asia has improved dramatically over the past month or so. Daily cases of COVID-19 have collapsed and are now less than one-third of the level they were at in August. With vaccination rollouts also making good progress …
27th October 2021
Over the past month or so, the central banks of Korea, Pakistan and Sri Lanka have all raised interest rates, but we don’t think other countries will be in any rush to follow suit. There is certainly little to worry about on the inflation front. …
29th September 2021
Q2 GDP data released over the past month or so did not show a repeat of the across-the-board rises in exports seen in previous quarters, but the external sector still proved an important prop to GDP in many places. Thailand’s economy unexpectedly grew …
31st August 2021
In a bold move that will be closely watched across the region, Singapore is set to drop its implicit target of pursuing zero local COVID-19 cases, with restrictions set to be eased gradually from August. In other words, Singapore will learn to live with …
28th July 2021
The virus situation in Emerging Asia has improved compared with a month ago. Although cases are rising sharply in Indonesia, daily numbers have come down in Taiwan, Singapore, India and Malaysia, and appear to have stabilised in the Philippines. That …
30th June 2021
The economic outlook for much of Emerging Asia has deteriorated in recent weeks in response to a sudden jump in COVID-19 infections. Daily cases are surging in Thailand and Malaysia, and while the overall numbers remain low, Taiwan, Singapore and Vietnam …
26th May 2021
A jump in new virus cases in Thailand is already showing signs of holding back the recovery and could jeopardise plans to reopen the crucial tourist sector. Despite its initial success in containing COVID-19 – there have so far been fewer than 200 deaths …
28th April 2021
The economic outlook in the Philippines has gone from bad to worse over the past month. The main headwind is a renewed surge in virus infections, with the country now reporting around 10,000 new cases of COVID-19 each day. Metro Manila, which accounts for …
31st March 2021
Indonesia has seen a dramatic shift in its current account position over the past year, with recently published data showing that the country recorded its second consecutive quarterly surplus in the final quarter of last year. The surplus of 0.3% of GDP …
24th February 2021
