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It is becoming clear that President Trump’s actions are driven by both his fixation on reducing the US trade deficit and his transactional approach to dealing with other countries. So, even though the Trump administration’s ideas to transform the entire …
25th March 2025
* This Focus features additional analysis added following the announcement of a snap election for April 28 th . * Recent shifts in the polls suggest new Liberal Party leader Mark Carney and Conservative Party leader Pierre Poilievre are both in with a …
10th March 2025
The Shape of the Fractured World in 2025 The share of the fracturing global economy that is accounted for by China and its geopolitical allies contracted in 2024, leaving it under a third the size of the US bloc at the start of 2025. This fall was in part …
17th January 2025
US President-elect Donald Trump’s increasingly aggressive rhetoric against Canada suggests we should take his tariff threats seriously. We already assume that Trump includes Canada in a likely 10% universal import tariff, but we remain relatively sanguine …
9th January 2025
Donald Trump’s second term could redraw the global geopolitical map. A sustainable “Grand Bargain” with China, warmer relations with Russia, or a breakdown in the relationship between the US and its traditional allies could each reshape supply chains and …
7th January 2025
We discussed the global impact of higher tariffs in a Drop-In on Tuesday, 26th November. Click here to watch the 20-minute online briefing. In this Focus, we construct a framework to explore the channels through which an import tariff works, which we use …
25th November 2024
The government’s plan to trim the population will hit potential GDP growth and, given the headwinds for residential investment, reduce the chance of GDP reaching that lower potential level. Rents on new leases are set to fall, which presents downside …
31st October 2024
With the Conservatives currently on track to win a clear majority at the next federal election, which is due by October 2025 but could come much earlier, there is a high chance that the carbon tax will soon be scrapped. We do not think this would alter …
28th October 2024
Getting an early steer on whether an economy has entered recession requires a holistic assessment of a variety of indicators to see if multiple variables are flagging recession at the same time. In this vein, we have created Economic Momentum Indicators …
9th September 2024
There are several structural factors that explain the underperformance of Canadian productivity growth compared to the US since the 1980s, but the underperformance in the last few years specifically reflects more cyclical factors including extremely …
23rd July 2024
We survey 12 major advanced economy housing markets to understand why house price falls have been small despite high starting points and sharp increases in mortgage rates. We then use this information to ascertain whether the correction in house prices is …
14th February 2024
The recent acceleration in the Labour Force Survey measure of wage growth seems to be overstating wage pressures. The other wage indicators, which are normally more reliable, show far lower rates of growth. With labour market slack increasing, it is …
1st February 2024
During the past decade, the global economy has transitioned out of an era in which globalisation was the key driver of economic and financial relationships into one shaped by geopolitics. Previously, most governments had believed that closer economic …
16th November 2023
Note: We discussed our revamped FCIs and took your questions on global financial conditions in a 20-minute online briefing on Thursday, 20 th April . Watch the recording here . We have revamped our financial conditions indices (FCIs) for advanced …
18th April 2023
Underlying inflation pressures are still well above the 2% mid-point of the Bank of Canada’s target range, but there are several reasons to expect disinflationary forces to build. We forecast that CPI inflation excluding food and energy will fall to 2% at …
5th April 2023
Canada has built fewer new homes relative to population growth than other advanced economies, but this alone cannot explain the much larger rise in house prices during the last decade. Looser credit conditions have played the dominant role by far, with …
1st February 2023
We expect higher interest rates to cause a 10% fall in house prices over the next 12 months and an even steeper fall in residential investment. With the rest of the economy still recovering from the pandemic and benefitting from higher commodity prices, …
9th May 2022
The sheer scale of the surge in residential investment since the pandemic means it now presents a key downside risk to the outlook. At best, the widely held assumption that residential investment will remain high for years looks too rosy. At worst, a …
6th July 2021
Over the next few years, there is potential for increased “green” investment to more than offset the negative economic effects of measures such as further carbon tax hikes. But given the economy’s reliance on fossil fuel extraction, it is hard to take …
26th May 2021
Due to lower spending and the generosity of government transfers, households are set to save $200bn more in 2020 than in 2019. With that rise equivalent to 14% of consumption, there are upside risks to our already above-consensus GDP growth forecasts if …
15th December 2020
It is by no means inevitable that the coronavirus crisis puts a big permanent hole in the supply capacity of economies (i.e. their ability to produce goods and services). With the right government policies, many economies should be able more or less to …
29th June 2020
