Filtered by Subscriptions: Australia & New Zealand Economics Use setting Australia & New Zealand Economics
The Reserve Bank of Australia will leave policy settings unchanged at its upcoming meeting that ends on 1 st April and will probably still sound hawkish. However, with inflation set to soften a touch faster than the Bank had anticipated, we still expect …
26th March 2025
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand will almost certainly cut rates by 50bp, to 3.75%, at its meeting on 19 th February. Although the Bank is likely to revert to 25bp cuts thereafter, we think it has much more work to do to reduce excess capacity in the …
12th February 2025
Labour market remains tight and there are signs of green shoots in the economy But with inflation slowing markedly, RBA will cut by 25bp next Tuesday Scope for further policy loosening remains modest We expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to cut rates by …
11th February 2025
The RBA will leave interest rates unchanged at its upcoming meeting on 10 th December. While the weakness in economic activity points to rate cuts before long, we think the Bank will need to see clearer evidence that the labour market is loosening and …
4th December 2024
RBA to remain even-handed about inflation risks Although labour market is still tight, activity remains weak Bank should be able to start unwinding monetary restriction from Q1 The Reserve Bank of Australia is all but certain to leave rates unchanged at …
30th October 2024
Limited data flow since August meeting broadly in line with RBA’s expectations Bank will therefore reiterate pledge to keep rates unchanged this year First rate cut will happen in Q2 next year The Reserve Bank of Australia will probably stick to its …
17th September 2024
The Reserve Bank of Australia is likely to leave policy settings unchanged when it meets next week. Although there has been little progress on disinflation in recent months, the Board is likely to pin that on the long and variable lags of monetary policy. …
31st July 2024
RBA to stay put at its June meeting Inflation remains high, but spare capacity is starting to open up in the economy Forthcoming easing cycle will be modest in scope, with rates returning to neutral We expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to leave rates …
11th June 2024
Underlying inflation remains stubborn, labour market still running hot RBA to hand down a final 25bp hike to mitigate upside risks Rate cuts unlikely before early next year, with only limited room for easing We expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to hike …
30th April 2024
Inflationary pressures have eased further, while labour market slack has risen Economy not falling off a cliff, but interest rates are biting households As the flow of data remain soft, Bank will pivot to policy easing in August We expect the Reserve Bank …
12th March 2024
The RBA will hold its fire at its meeting next week With inflation falling rapidly, the Bank is likely to dial back its hawkish bias Rate cuts will be on the agenda sooner than most anticipate We expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to leave rates on hold …
31st January 2024
Bullock has continued to sound hawkish, leaving the door open for another rate hike Trimmed mean inflation still stubbornly high, but set to slow further Bank’s next move will be a rate cut, perhaps as early as Q2 next year We expect the Reserve Bank …
29th November 2023
Recession still looking likely and labour market weakening as expected Bank will probably signal that inflation will return to 2% target earlier than thought Quicker disinflation opens the door to rate cuts in the second half of next year The labour …
22nd November 2023
RBA will hike by 25bp next week as inflation and labour market continue to run hot But there will be a high bar for additional tightening further down the road As the economy takes a turn for the worse, rate cuts still likely in Q2 2024 With inflation …
31st October 2023
Activity is holding up better than expected, while disinflation is stalling Another 25bp rate hike now seems more likely than not Policy easing pushed back to mid-2024 Stronger-than-expected GDP and inflation data should cement the case for the RBA to …
27th September 2023
RBNZ to reassert its tightening bias as activity surprises on the upside Given the noise in the recent data, we don’t expect further rate hikes However, policy will remain restrictive for longer, with rate cuts only in Q3 2024 Although economic activity …
26th September 2023
Rapid fall in inflation and weaker-than-expected wage growth mean RBA is done hiking Looming recession should prompt the Bank to ease policy earlier than most expect We’re moving forward our forecast for the first rate cut from Q2 2024 to Q1 All of the …
30th August 2023
RBNZ to remain on hold Although inflation and wage growth remain strong, they are showing signs of cooling As recession deepens, rate cuts will be on the table in Q1 2024 With inflation coming off the boil and labour market conditions starting to …
9th August 2023
Economic activity slowing and inflation weakening faster than anticipated However, labour market still very tight and services inflation still accelerating Bank to hike to 4.35% next week, but September rate hike is a close call With inflation …
26th July 2023
RBNZ will leave rates unchanged next week With economy in recession and inflation expectations falling, tightening cycle is over But resilient labour market conditions will delay rate cuts until early-2024 Having raised rates more aggressively than any …
5th July 2023
Labour market still very tight and unit labour cost growth surging Inflation plunged in May but underlying measures moderating less rapidly Bank will deliver 25bp rate hikes at each of its next three meetings While headline inflation plunged in May, …
28th June 2023
Economy softening, but not collapsing Inflation overshooting Bank’s forecasts and upside risks abound We now expect two more 25bp hike in June and July; rate cuts unlikely until Q2 2024 With inflation set to overshoot the Reserve Bank of Australia’s …
31st May 2023
The RBNZ will lift its OCR by 25bp next week. With upside risks to inflation persisting, we’ve pencilled in another 25bp hike in July. However, we still think the Bank will pivot to rate cuts by year-end. The latest data don’t tell a compelling story as …
17th May 2023
Inflation moderating, but still far too strong to be consistent with RBA’s target Further tightening needed to return inflation to target by mid-2025 Rate cuts will start a bit later than most expect; our forecast is Q2 2024 Note: We’ll be discussing the …
26th April 2023
The RBNZ will temper rate rises, but continue hiking to 5.25%. The Bank will look past the disruption to activity driven by Cyclone Gabrielle. Even so, recession-induced disinflation will pave the way for rate cuts by year-end. With the latest economic …
29th March 2023
RBA has signalled that it will consider pausing its tightening cycle next week On balance, the economic data are consistent with a pause Final 25bp rate hike in May to be followed by cuts in Q2 2024 The RBA has signalled a pause in its tightening cycle at …
Data a touch softer than expected, but not soft enough for RBNZ to back away We still expect rates to peak at 5.5% by the middle of this year Looming recession will prompt looser policy by year-end The incoming data have been a touch softer than the RBNZ …
15th February 2023
Consumption remains resilient and labour market still very tight With inflation still accelerating, we expect the cash rate to reach 3.85% by April However, sharp slowdown in activity and inflation will prompt rate cuts by year-end The incoming data …
31st January 2023
Labour market remains very tight but consumption moderating and inflation peaking Risks to our above-consensus cash rate forecast are shifting to the downside With GDP growth slowing sharply next year, we still expect rate cuts from late-2023 With …
30th November 2022
Broad-based strength in labour market and inflation to prompt 75bp hike next week Rates to peak at 5.0% by April With inflation set to drop back, RBNZ will cut rates in late-2023 With the labour market and inflation going from strength to strength and …
16th November 2022
Bank won’t make a U-turn and will opt for another 25bp hike next week But the upside surprise in Q3 inflation points to a higher peak in interest rates With GDP growth slowing sharply next year, we still expect rate cuts from late-2023 While the …
26th October 2022
Resilient activity and faster food inflation point to another 50bp hike next week Inflation set to remain stubbornly high We now expect rates to peak at 4.5% by April 2023; first rate cut only by end-2023 With GDP growth holding up and food inflation …
28th September 2022
Early signs that tighter policy is working but RBA will hike by 50bp next week Consensus catching up to our long-held view that rates will reach 3.6% Absence of wage-price spiral means RBA will be able to loosen policy next year Other analysts are …
27th September 2022
Australia consumers going from strength to strength while inflation remains high Bank to hike rates by 50bp in September before reverting to smaller 25bp hikes Slump in house prices and slowdown in inflation to prompt cuts next year With the …
30th August 2022
Tight labour market and faster inflation point to another 50bp hike next week However, higher interest rates are taking their toll on housing market We expect two more 25bp hikes in October and December, but rate cuts next year Rising interest rates are …
10th August 2022
Labour market surprising to the upside, but inflation in line with expectations Bank to keep hiking by 50bp until October Rates to peak at 3.6%, but housing downturn will prompt rate cuts next year While the labour market has surprised to the upside, …
27th July 2022
Inflation is still rising and labour market still tightening We expect the Bank to hike rates by a further 50bp in July But as the housing downturn weighs on activity, RBNZ will reverse course next year Rising interest rates have started to weigh on house …
7th July 2022
Strength in consumption and labour market points to 50bp hikes in July and August Bank to slow tightening in H2, rates will peak above 3% Housing downturn to prompt rate cuts next year The Reserve Bank of Australia will probably lift the cash rate by …
28th June 2022
Mediocre labour market data point to another 25bp rate hike in June However, further upside surprises in inflation should prompt faster hikes in Q3 Rates to peak at 3.0% by early-2023, rate cuts to come in 2024 The Reserve Bank of Australia will probably …
31st May 2022
The economy is still running too hot We expect the Bank to hike rates by a further 50bp in May But as the housing downturn intensifies, the RBNZ will reverse course next year The New Zealand economy was running hot even when the Omicron variant was …
19th May 2022
RBA has not kicked off tightening cycle with 50bp hike since early 1990s But inflation now on track to reach levels last seen in early 1990s Bank to lift cash rate to 0.50% in June, rate to peak at an above-consensus 2.5% The surge in inflation would …
27th April 2022
Evidence is mounting that more rate hikes will be needed Bank to hike rates by 50bp in April and May, 3.0% by end 2022 But we think the Bank will eventually have to reverse course, cutting rates next year Inflation is set to exceed the RBNZ’s forecasts …
7th April 2022
Strong Q1 inflation to overcome RBA’s reluctance to tighten policy Bank to allow bond holdings to shrink in line with maturities, first hike in June Markets are pricing in a peak in rates above 3%, we expect a lower 1.75% With Governor Lowe warming to the …
30th March 2022
Inflation set to surge further; first rate hike will come in June. High household debt is a concern, but high savings rate means households have buffers. We expect rates to reach 1.75% by mid-2023. We now expect the RBA to start hiking in June in response …
23rd February 2022
Strong data will keep the RBNZ’s hiking cycle on track The Bank will hike rates to 2.0% by August But we think the Bank will eventually have to reverse course, cutting rates next year The New Zealand economy remained hot at the end of last year. And while …
16th February 2022
Labour market tightening rapidly, inflation surging Omicron is disrupting activity but will only add to the upward pressure on prices RBA to end QE next week, start hiking in August The rapid tightening of the labour market coupled with the acceleration …
25th January 2022
Economy rebounding rapidly from lockdowns Inflation and wage growth set to surprise to the upside RBA to end QE in August; first rate hike in early-2023 The rapid rebound in activity from the recent lockdowns coupled with a further pick-up in underlying …
30th November 2021
New Zealand economy is running red hot RBNZ will hike by 50bps next week OCR will rise to 2.0% by the middle of next year The New Zealand economy is clearly overheating. Measures of underlying inflation are mostly above the ceiling of the RBNZ’s target …
17th November 2021
Underlying inflation strongest in years, but wage growth has yet to pick-up RBA to shift forward guidance for first rate hike to 2023 in February, ditch yield target We think the first hike will happen in early-2023 The acceleration in underlying …
27th October 2021
New Zealand has eased its strict lockdown RBNZ still keen to lift rates in October Rates will be gradually raised to 1.50% by the middle of next year New Zealand has slowed the spread of the Delta variant and eased its lockdown, which stopped the RBNZ …
29th September 2021
