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The final presidential debate before elections in Ghana next month revealed that neither of the two main candidates are likely to oversee a radical shift away from market-friendly policies. Accordingly, we think the country remains on course to outperform …
28th November 2012
South African GDP growth was worse than expected in Q3, and the outlook for the coming quarters is not very promising either. With strikes continuing to affect the mining sector, and signs of a deepening recession in the euro-zone likely to harm …
27th November 2012
The South African Reserve Bank kept its benchmark repo rate on hold at 5.00% today, but the prospect of subdued growth and easing inflation suggests that a rate cut is likely in 2013. … South Africa holds rates, easing to come next …
22nd November 2012
Discoveries of giant gas fields off the coast of East Africa in the past few months are likely to have a very positive impact on the economies of Mozambique and Tanzania. But while both countries stand to benefit from the finds, there is a need to …
21st November 2012
The Central Bank of Nigeria kept interest rates on hold at 12.00% today, but the outlook for slowing inflation and sub-trend growth means that monetary easing is likely to come onto the agenda in 2013. … Central Bank of Nigeria likely to cut rates next …
20th November 2012
The Capital Economics South Africa GDP Tracker suggests that the economy slowed sharply in the third quarter of this year. We think annualised growth dropped to 1.5% q/q, from 3.2% q/q in Q2. This would leave the economy on course for a full-year …
16th November 2012
The Bank of Ghana kept its benchmark interest rate on hold at 15.00% today and, with inflation decelerating and concerns over the cedi easing, we expect rates to remain unchanged throughout 2013. … Bank of Ghana to keep rates on hold throughout …
14th November 2012
The recent peaceful transitions of power following elections in Senegal and Zambia demonstrate that the threat of voting-related violence in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) has been receding in the past few years. And while it would be foolhardy to rule out any …
13th November 2012
The new weights assigned to components of the South African CPI basket, which are due to come into effect in January 2013, will have only a marginal impact on overall inflation. As such, the implications for monetary policy are limited, and we continue to …
8th November 2012
The Central Bank of Kenya cut its benchmark interest rate by 200bps to 11.00% today but, while there is still room for further easing, rates are unlikely to continue falling so sharply over the next few months. … Kenya cuts rates, pace of easing now set …
7th November 2012
After Nigeria’s banking crisis of 2008/09, some commentators are starting to voice fresh concerns about the recent rapid pace of growth in private sector credit. But while we share some of these concerns, it seems that the pace of credit growth is being …
6th November 2012
The Bank of Uganda lowered its benchmark interest rate by 50bps to 12.50% today and, looking ahead, we think there is scope for one further rate cut before the easing cycle concludes. … Ugandan rate cutting cycle close to an …
1st November 2012
South Africa’s manufacturing PMI slumped further in October, and is now at a level consistent with an outright contraction in GDP. … South African PMI now consistent with GDP …
The widespread mining sector strikes in South Africa over the past few months have focused attention on some of the country’s deeply entrenched socio-economic problems, which will require addressing in order to lift its medium-term growth potential. But …
31st October 2012
The forthcoming rebasing and revision of GDP data in Nigeria will change little on the ground, but it could leave the country on track to overtake South Africa as the region’s largest economy by 2014. … Nigerian economy could be region’s largest by …
29th October 2012
Growth across sub-Saharan Africa continues to hold up well, despite a weak global economic backdrop. Most countries have now released Q2 GDP data, with particularly strong performances recorded in Tanzania and Rwanda. The Nigerian economy is also ticking …
Increased oil and gas production should mean that Ghana outperforms the rest of the region and grows by 8-10% over the next couple of years. But beyond this, the key will be to ensure that energy revenues are spent wisely. In this regard, the outcome of …
26th October 2012
The South African Finance Ministry today nudged up its forecasts for the fiscal deficit over the next three years, but we suspect that the budget shortfall may still surprise on the upside. The good news, however, is that despite fears that this might …
25th October 2012
South African inflation surprised to the upside in September, and we think it is likely to accelerate further to peak at around 6% y/y in early 2013. As such, we now think the Reserve Bank will keep the benchmark repo rate on hold at 5.00% at its next …
24th October 2012
Kenya’s large current account deficit leaves it exposed to a sudden deterioration in the external funding environment, and is one reason to expect a slowdown in the monetary easing cycle in the coming months. … Kenya’s current account deficit remains its …
19th October 2012
On the face of it, yesterday’s announcement from Angolan President José dos Santos that the country has launched a sovereign wealth fund is a positive step towards better management of oil revenues. But more can be done, including introducing …
18th October 2012
Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) is not completely immune to the continuing crisis in the euro-zone and the effects of weakening growth elsewhere in the developed world, but strong domestic demand and scope for policy easing in the region’s larger economies …
17th October 2012
Sub-Saharan African (SSA) eurobond markets hit the headlines in September when Zambia’s debut $750mn 10yr bond issue, which was 15 times oversubscribed, became the most successful ever in the region. Looking ahead, we think that there are opportunities …
12th October 2012
The 2013 budget proposal unveiled by President Goodluck Jonathan today is predicated on reasonableassumptions of economic growth and contains sensible measures to rebalance spending away fromsubsidies and towards investment. Nonetheless, we suspect the …
10th October 2012
The South African rand has sold-off sharply in the past few days, but we think a combination of domestic political unrest, a challenging external environment, and a widening current account deficit could lead to further losses in the coming months. …
8th October 2012
It is still too early to calculate the full economic impact of labour unrest in South Africa, but our initial estimates suggest that it could knock around 1.5%-pts off GDP in the second half of 2012. … What is economic cost of South Africa’s mining …
4th October 2012
The Bank of Uganda lowered its benchmark interest rate by 200bps to 13.00% today and, while the easing cycle still has further to run, we think the pace of rate cuts may slow in the months ahead. … Pace of monetary easing to slow in …
2nd October 2012
On the face of it, South Africa’s manufacturing PMI for September appears consistent with a contraction in GDP in Q3. And while we would be hesitant to read too much into one month’s figures, the outlook for the sector is remains challenging, as …
1st October 2012
Weaker-than-expected second quarter growth in Kenya reinforces the case for further rate cuts at the central bank’s next meeting in November. While we expect a slight pick-up in the second half of the year, our below-consensus forecast for full-year …
28th September 2012
The economies of sub-Saharan Africa have so far proved resilient in the face of mounting global headwinds. Q2 GDP data released over the past month have shown a pick-up in growth in several of the region’s major economies, driven for the most part by …
26th September 2012
Q2 GDP data for Kenya, due to be released this week, are likely to show a pick-up in growth from Q1, and we expect further acceleration in the second half of the year. However, the country remains extremely vulnerable to a sudden deterioration in the …
24th September 2012
Although the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) kept its benchmark repo rate on hold at 5.00% today, we think that rate cuts could be back on the agenda as early as November this year. … South African rate cut still possible in …
20th September 2012
The recent sharp widening of South Africa’s current account deficit adds to mounting concerns over the direction of the economy and is another reason to expect the rand to weaken over the next six months. … Widening current account deficit adds to …
19th September 2012
The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) kept interest rates on hold at 12.00% today and is likely to stay in wait and see mode over the coming months as the effects of a spike in global food prices feed through to domestic inflation. But below-potential GDP …
18th September 2012
The Nigerian economy picked up pace in the second quarter of this year, but problems in the oil sector mean that it is still growing below its potential. Nonetheless, with inflation remaining above target, the Central Bank is likely to leave interest …
17th September 2012
The recent spike in global agricultural prices is likely to feed through to a pick-up in food inflation in most African economies in early 2013. But the shock to food inflation should be much smaller than in 2011 and is unlikely to prevent further rate …
14th September 2012
The ongoing unrest in South Africa’s mining sector has led many to question the medium-term economic outlook for sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), but we still believe the region has huge growth potential. In this Watch we explain why. … Positive medium-term …
13th September 2012
The structural problems in South Africa’s mining sector have been brought starkly into focus by the ongoing bout of labour unrest. Although it is difficult to predict to how events will pan out from here, we think that, ultimately, the sector will …
10th September 2012
Recent events in South Africa’s mining sector, while tragic, are also symptomatic of wider economic problems that are likely to mean the country falls short of achieving its significant growth potential over the next decade. We believe that South Africa …
6th September 2012
