Filtered by Subscriptions: Africa Economics Use setting Africa Economics
Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) is not completely immune to the continuing crisis in the euro-zone and the effects of weakening growth elsewhere in the developed world, but strong domestic demand and scope for policy easing in the region’s larger economies …
17th October 2012
Sub-Saharan African (SSA) eurobond markets hit the headlines in September when Zambia’s debut $750mn 10yr bond issue, which was 15 times oversubscribed, became the most successful ever in the region. Looking ahead, we think that there are opportunities …
12th October 2012
The 2013 budget proposal unveiled by President Goodluck Jonathan today is predicated on reasonableassumptions of economic growth and contains sensible measures to rebalance spending away fromsubsidies and towards investment. Nonetheless, we suspect the …
10th October 2012
The South African rand has sold-off sharply in the past few days, but we think a combination of domestic political unrest, a challenging external environment, and a widening current account deficit could lead to further losses in the coming months. …
8th October 2012
It is still too early to calculate the full economic impact of labour unrest in South Africa, but our initial estimates suggest that it could knock around 1.5%-pts off GDP in the second half of 2012. … What is economic cost of South Africa’s mining …
4th October 2012
The Bank of Uganda lowered its benchmark interest rate by 200bps to 13.00% today and, while the easing cycle still has further to run, we think the pace of rate cuts may slow in the months ahead. … Pace of monetary easing to slow in …
2nd October 2012
On the face of it, South Africa’s manufacturing PMI for September appears consistent with a contraction in GDP in Q3. And while we would be hesitant to read too much into one month’s figures, the outlook for the sector is remains challenging, as …
1st October 2012
Weaker-than-expected second quarter growth in Kenya reinforces the case for further rate cuts at the central bank’s next meeting in November. While we expect a slight pick-up in the second half of the year, our below-consensus forecast for full-year …
28th September 2012
The economies of sub-Saharan Africa have so far proved resilient in the face of mounting global headwinds. Q2 GDP data released over the past month have shown a pick-up in growth in several of the region’s major economies, driven for the most part by …
26th September 2012
Q2 GDP data for Kenya, due to be released this week, are likely to show a pick-up in growth from Q1, and we expect further acceleration in the second half of the year. However, the country remains extremely vulnerable to a sudden deterioration in the …
24th September 2012
Although the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) kept its benchmark repo rate on hold at 5.00% today, we think that rate cuts could be back on the agenda as early as November this year. … South African rate cut still possible in …
20th September 2012
The recent sharp widening of South Africa’s current account deficit adds to mounting concerns over the direction of the economy and is another reason to expect the rand to weaken over the next six months. … Widening current account deficit adds to …
19th September 2012
The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) kept interest rates on hold at 12.00% today and is likely to stay in wait and see mode over the coming months as the effects of a spike in global food prices feed through to domestic inflation. But below-potential GDP …
18th September 2012
The Nigerian economy picked up pace in the second quarter of this year, but problems in the oil sector mean that it is still growing below its potential. Nonetheless, with inflation remaining above target, the Central Bank is likely to leave interest …
17th September 2012
The recent spike in global agricultural prices is likely to feed through to a pick-up in food inflation in most African economies in early 2013. But the shock to food inflation should be much smaller than in 2011 and is unlikely to prevent further rate …
14th September 2012
The ongoing unrest in South Africa’s mining sector has led many to question the medium-term economic outlook for sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), but we still believe the region has huge growth potential. In this Watch we explain why. … Positive medium-term …
13th September 2012
The structural problems in South Africa’s mining sector have been brought starkly into focus by the ongoing bout of labour unrest. Although it is difficult to predict to how events will pan out from here, we think that, ultimately, the sector will …
10th September 2012
Recent events in South Africa’s mining sector, while tragic, are also symptomatic of wider economic problems that are likely to mean the country falls short of achieving its significant growth potential over the next decade. We believe that South Africa …
6th September 2012
