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It is becoming clear that President Trump’s actions are driven by both his fixation on reducing the US trade deficit and his transactional approach to dealing with other countries. So, even though the Trump administration’s ideas to transform the entire …
25th March 2025
The Shape of the Fractured World in 2025 The share of the fracturing global economy that is accounted for by China and its geopolitical allies contracted in 2024, leaving it under a third the size of the US bloc at the start of 2025. This fall was in part …
17th January 2025
Donald Trump’s second term could redraw the global geopolitical map. A sustainable “Grand Bargain” with China, warmer relations with Russia, or a breakdown in the relationship between the US and its traditional allies could each reshape supply chains and …
7th January 2025
We discussed the global impact of higher tariffs in a Drop-In on Tuesday, 26th November. Click here to watch the 20-minute online briefing. In this Focus, we construct a framework to explore the channels through which an import tariff works, which we use …
25th November 2024
Several EMs have reached provisional agreements with creditors to restructure their sovereign debts in recent months, including Zambia, Ukraine, Sri Lanka and Ghana. In principle, restructurings should pave the way for improved fiscal positions, stronger …
17th October 2024
This page brings together our analysis of how Donald Trump's return to the White House will affect the outlook for emerging economies. Use the Table of Contents on the right to navigate. All of our analysis on the election, including the implications for …
28th June 2024
South Africa’s upcoming election looks set to herald a new era of coalition government. There are lots of permutations ranging from a centrist ANC-DA coalition to a so-called ‘doomsday coalition’ in which the ANC teams up with the left-wing EFF (although …
23rd May 2024
A key concern around South Africa’s upcoming election is that the left-wing Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) could get into government as part of what’s being dubbed in some quarters as a “doomsday coalition” with the ANC. This Focus takes a closer look at …
14th May 2024
All the signs suggest that a second Trump administration would take a more protectionist approach to trade. Export demand in Mexico, East Asia and ASEAN would be particularly hard hit by a universal US import tariff or a dollar devaluation, and those …
29th April 2024
Sub-Saharan Africa’s enormous demographic tailwind means the region will see the fastest GDP growth rates (4-5%) of any region between now and 2050. By the middle of the century, the region’s overall GDP will probably be larger than any single economy bar …
21st March 2024
We hosted an online briefing to discuss EM financial risks in more detail. Watch the recording here . Our risk indicators are presented as an interactive EM dashboard on our website here . The past few years have sharpened investors’ focus on assessing …
20th March 2024
During the past decade, the global economy has transitioned out of an era in which globalisation was the key driver of economic and financial relationships into one shaped by geopolitics. Previously, most governments had believed that closer economic …
16th November 2023
South Africa’s economy has one of the weakest growth records of any EM over the past decade and its post-pandemic recovery has been particularly disappointing. At the heart of the problem are major structural impediments to growth that stretch far beyond …
6th September 2023
The removal of fuel subsidies and the devaluation of the naira are likely to push inflation in Nigeria towards 35% y/y, which will prompt further interest rate hikes by the central bank and weigh on GDP growth over the coming quarters. Our growth …
27th June 2023
Amidst sky-high oil prices, a stream of downbeat comments from Nigerian government officials on the state of the economy may seem mind-boggling. In this Focus , we outline what’s behind the country’s struggles, their economic implications and whether …
11th July 2022
This week’s Budget in South Africa will probably see the government reaffirm its commitment to fiscal consolidation. But we think that officials will struggle to stay on this path in the next couple of years, leaving the debt-to-GDP ratio on an upwards …
22nd February 2022
Nigeria’s government has turned to the central bank to plug ever larger budget deficits in recent years and policymakers are unlikely to kick their deficit monetisation habit, particularly if the fiscal position worsens next year (as we expect). This will …
14th June 2021
There has been much less progress towards debt relief for African economies than many had hoped. And governments’ diverse array of creditors means that the “Common Framework” recently unveiled by the G20 to help debt distressed EMs will struggle to gain …
16th November 2020
It is by no means inevitable that the coronavirus crisis puts a big permanent hole in the supply capacity of economies (i.e. their ability to produce goods and services). With the right government policies, many economies should be able more or less to …
29th June 2020
South Africa’s public debt burden is not too high, but the direction of travel is very worrying. While the structure of the country’s debts and its deep local capital markets make an acute crisis unlikely, the growing debt pile is another factor pushing …
21st November 2019
Hopes that President Cyril Ramaphosa can quickly revive South Africa’s economy are fading. The real problems are all structural, so even if he does make bold policy changes – far from guaranteed, given political obstacles – these would take years to take …
7th August 2019
