Filtered by Subscriptions: Africa Economics Use setting Africa Economics
Overview – Economies across Sub-Saharan Africa are amongst the least affected EMs by the protectionist shift that the US is embracing. And growth in the region is set for a modest pick-up on the back of lower inflation and easing monetary policy. But …
28th March 2025
Overview – Falling inflation and looser monetary policy will help GDP growth to accelerate across Sub-Saharan Africa next year. A shift towards trade protectionism in the US will hurt certain sectors in certain countries, but is unlikely to have a …
17th December 2024
Overview – A combination of falling inflation and looser monetary policy should help growth to accelerate across Sub-Saharan Africa from early next year. But tight fiscal policy will constrain the recovery and our growth forecasts sit below the consensus. …
25th September 2024
Overview – Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa is set to accelerate over the next couple of years, helped by a more favourable external environment as well as falling inflation and interest rates. But tight fiscal policy will constrain the recovery and our …
27th June 2024
Overview – Sub-Saharan Africa will record a pick-up in growth over the coming years, helped by an improving external environment reducing the threat of further large currency falls as well as sovereign defaults. Monetary and fiscal policy will generally …
27th March 2024
Overview – Economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa is set to strengthen over 2024-25 as the external backdrop turns more favourable and, in most places, the drag from high inflation eases. But growth will be constrained by tight fiscal and monetary policy …
7th December 2023
Overview – Economic growth across Sub-Saharan Africa is likely to pick up over the coming quarters, but a challenging external environment means that balance of payments positions will remain under strain and fiscal and monetary policy will need to stay …
27th September 2023
Click here to read full text. Overview – Sub-Saharan Africa is set to record its weakest growth this year, outside of the pandemic, since 2016 as the drags from domestic headwinds are exacerbated by a less favourable external environment. Our GDP growth …
13th June 2023
Overview – Homegrown problems in Sub-Saharan African economies exacerbated by external headwinds are likely to curtail growth this year. We think that regional GDP will expand by 2.3%, which is well below the consensus. Public debt problems will remain …
31st March 2023
Click here to read the full report. Overview – The challenging external backdrop means that growth across Sub-Saharan Africa is likely to slow in 2023, and by much more than most expect. Currencies are likely to weaken and public debt fears will grow, …
19th December 2022
Overview – Sub-Saharan Africa has suffered particularly heavily from the pandemic and then spillovers from the war in Ukraine, and the global recession will only add to the headwinds. Taken together with tight fiscal and monetary policy, we hold a …
27th October 2022
Overview – Sub-Saharan African economies are suffering heavily from the spillovers from Fed tightening and the war in Ukraine. Policy in the region is likely to tighten further as a result, weighing on growth. Indeed, our growth forecasts for this year …
26th July 2022
Overview – Sub-Saharan Africa’s recovery is likely to remain slow going and our growth forecasts are generally below the consensus. While spillovers from the war in Ukraine will boost a handful of economies – notably Angola and Nigeria – in others, the …
4th May 2022
Overview – Sub-Saharan Africa’s economic recovery from the pandemic is likely to remain one of the weakest of any region over 2022-23 and our GDP growth forecasts are generally below the consensus. The latest virus waves already seem to be ebbing, but low …
28th January 2022
Overview – Extremely low vaccine coverage continues to cast a dark cloud over recovery prospects in Sub-Saharan Africa and this will be compounded by deteriorations in the terms of trade and tighter fiscal policy. As a result, rebounds in most economies …
27th October 2021
Overview – Vaccination campaigns across Sub-Saharan Africa will continue to struggle, leaving the region vulnerable to renewed virus outbreaks. This, combined with tight fiscal policy, a slow return of tourists and falls in commodity prices means that …
5th August 2021
Overview – Slow vaccine rollouts, tight fiscal policy and weakness in tourism sectors will hold back recoveries across Sub-Saharan Africa. Virus containment measures will probably remain in place for some time, depressing activity. Meanwhile, some …
28th April 2021
Overview – The second waves of COVID-19 currently ripping through Sub-Saharan Africa will keep economic activity depressed over the coming months and, even once vaccines belatedly reach the region, recoveries will remain sluggish. The three largest …
28th January 2021
Overview – Recoveries across Sub-Saharan Africa will be weak, with the region’s three largest economies – Nigeria, South Africa and Angola – set to fare particularly badly. A rebound in tourism sectors has been delayed, low oil prices will weigh on growth …
22nd October 2020
Overview – South Africa, the oil producers (Angola and Nigeria) and tourism-dependent economies (Mauritius, Namibia and Botswana) are all likely to suffer particularly weak recoveries over the coming quarters. Many of the smaller economies in the region …
29th July 2020
Overview – Sub-Saharan Africa is set for one of its worst downturns in decades this year. The hardest hit economies are likely to be South Africa (due to its stringent lockdown measures), the large oil producers (Nigeria and Angola), and tourism dependent …
24th April 2020
Overview – Economic growth in Africa is likely to come in at just 3% this year, as the slump that began in 2015 drags on. The limit on regional growth will, again, come from South Africa where hopes for a meaningful rebound this year look too optimistic. …
30th January 2020
Overview – Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa will probably pick up in 2020, but we think that it will be much slower than most expect. The key reason for our downbeat view is South Africa, where we think that weak investment spending, tight policy, and …
23rd October 2019
Overview – Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa weakened in early 2019, but activity should strengthen in the second half of the year and into 2020 as policy across the region loosens. Even so, our forecasts are below consensus for most African economies. We …
11th July 2019
