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It is becoming clear that President Trump’s actions are driven by both his fixation on reducing the US trade deficit and his transactional approach to dealing with other countries. So, even though the Trump administration’s ideas to transform the entire …
25th March 2025
The rise in defence spending that looks likely in many countries over the next few years will boost demand and output, albeit by less than the headline-grabbing figures might suggest. Meanwhile, higher defence spending could give a significant boost to …
13th March 2025
The Shape of the Fractured World in 2025 The share of the fracturing global economy that is accounted for by China and its geopolitical allies contracted in 2024, leaving it under a third the size of the US bloc at the start of 2025. This fall was in part …
17th January 2025
Donald Trump’s second term could redraw the global geopolitical map. A sustainable “Grand Bargain” with China, warmer relations with Russia, or a breakdown in the relationship between the US and its traditional allies could each reshape supply chains and …
7th January 2025
Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 reform programme has resulted in major societal and cultural changes, but many of the economic reforms are currently not on track to hit their targets. That is not to say Vision 2030 should be dubbed a failure. But officials …
23rd September 2024
There is huge uncertainty about whether fertility rates have reached a floor in those countries with the lowest rates. But even if they start to rise again, it is almost unavoidable that a rising number of countries will experience falling populations …
24th June 2024
The metals-intensive nature of green technologies will add to demand for a host of industrial and battery metals, with green demand for copper and aluminium likely to grow twice as quickly as traditional demand for both metals has in the past. That said, …
23rd May 2024
One of the key problems for countries with ageing populations is how to tackle the associated fiscal costs. Those countries which have a good record for structural reform and/or scope to raise taxes should be able to mitigate or absorb those costs. But …
26th March 2024
Sub-Saharan Africa’s enormous demographic tailwind means the region will see the fastest GDP growth rates (4-5%) of any region between now and 2050. By the middle of the century, the region’s overall GDP will probably be larger than any single economy bar …
21st March 2024
The green transition will deal a significant blow to EM oil producers that have failed to save their windfalls (Nigeria, Colombia, Angola), but boost the export revenues of economies such as Chile and South Africa that are endowed with the raw materials …
4th March 2024
Although the recent transition to a higher interest rate climate has not caused any lasting or systemic financial flare ups, it is probably too soon to sound the all-clear. And while a higher interest rate climate in the medium-term will reduce …
8th February 2024
During the past decade, the global economy has transitioned out of an era in which globalisation was the key driver of economic and financial relationships into one shaped by geopolitics. Previously, most governments had believed that closer economic …
16th November 2023
The full report is available to download from the button at the top right to Global Economics, Global Markets, Asset Allocation and The Long Run subscribers, as well as to CE Advance clients. If this is outside of your current subscription and you would …
17th October 2023
Chapter 4: Financial market implications …
Chapter 3: Where will inflation (and nominal rates) settle? …
Chapter 2: How will the savings/investment balance affect r*? …
Chapter 1: Will stronger potential growth boost r*? …
Introduction and framework …
r* and the end of the ultra-low rates era: executive summary …
Saudi Arabia’s labour market has strengthened markedly in its post-pandemic recovery and the headline figures mask a dramatic shift in the size and composition of the labour force. In particular, social reforms have helped the female participation rate to …
4th October 2023
The message from electric vehicle sales data is now clear: the EV revolution is alive and kicking and poses important implications for oil demand. We are slightly more optimistic on the pace of EV adoption than other forecasters and suspect the drag on …
31st July 2023
Egyptian policymakers’ commitment (or lack of) to economic orthodoxy continues to provide cause for concern and, while we don’t share the view that sovereign default is a serious risk, the near-term economic outlook is challenging. Over a longer …
20th July 2023
The global energy market is in the early days of a radical redesign due to the need to cut greenhouse gas emissions. In this Focus , we introduce our long-term energy market forecasts, which are characterised by continued growth in energy consumption and …
27th April 2023
As countries age, falling working-age populations will make it harder to sustain growth in the size of the labour force. Lessons from countries that are already advanced in the ageing process suggest that the drag can be offset by raising female labour …
28th March 2023
If it isn't already, India will soon be the world’s most populous nation. But this doesn’t mean that policymakers can simply wait for the economic benefits to arrive. The key to unlocking India’s demographic potential is to develop the manufacturing …
15th February 2023
The energy crisis in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) has lost some of its bite as natural gas prices have slumped and countries have made good progress in replacing Russian energy supplies. This has brightened the near-term outlook and reduced the risk …
6th February 2023
The Ukraine war has sent the risk of Russian cyberattacks on the West soaring up the agenda, with an attack on critical infrastructure potentially bringing whole economies to a halt. In most cases, a few days of disruption would not actually put much of …
22nd November 2022
The post-pandemic recovery in travel and tourism still has some way to go in parts of the world that have been slower to lift restrictions, such as in Asia. And China’s reluctance to move away from its zero-COVID approach means tourism for leisure …
15th September 2022
The Indian rupee has continued its long-run trend of depreciation against the US dollar this year, taking it to a record low of 80/$. It may still weaken further in the near term. However, there are reasons to think that that the rupee will reverse …
31st August 2022
Substantial fiscal support helped to prevent a big rise in income inequality within developed economies during the pandemic. But inequality was rising in many DMs before then and could revert to that trend if technological advances disproportionately …
3rd May 2022
One possible upside of the current labour market shortages in developed economies is that they could push firms towards expanding output by raising investment and productivity instead of relying on cheap labour. However, any gains in productivity may not …
2nd December 2021
The pandemic’s most significant economic legacy in India will be a heavily-damaged banking sector that is likely to constrain investment over the years ahead. This underpins our view that the economy could be 5% smaller over the long run than it would …
17th November 2021
The pandemic is likely to inflict lasting damage on potential growth in economies in much of Latin America, Africa and South and Southeast Asia, adding to the structural headwinds that they already faced. However, the risk of permanent scarring in many …
9th September 2021
We expect some major central banks to issue digital currencies later this decade, with those in countries where cash is rarest proceeding the fastest. The first generation of central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) will be purposely designed not to shake …
6th July 2021
Global migration has ground to a halt over the past year or so, but we doubt that the pandemic will have any major lasting impact. Moreover, there is potential for migration to get a fresh impetus from a big rise in the number of people leaving Africa …
15th June 2021
The downward trend in average working hours in advanced economies has slowed or stalled in the past few decades. Yet there are reasons to think that the decline will resume, at least in some sectors and some countries. Other things equal, fewer hours …
13th May 2021
There is evidence that the pandemic has accelerated technology use, partly through increased equipment investment but mainly through a change in the way that people work. The effects on productivity might not be immediate or huge, but they will be …
16th April 2021
The equilibrium level of real interest rates in the global economy may not remain quite as low as of late, but we expect any rise to be gradual and small. With policymakers at the same time taking a more tolerant attitude towards inflation, actual real …
24th February 2021
Climate change will be more costly to EMs than developed countries, with parts of Africa, as well as South and South East Asia most vulnerable to rising global temperatures. That said, some EMs could benefit as investments to mitigate climate change …
19th November 2020
The pandemic has increased the odds that the US will eventually experience a period of high inflation, principally because we expect the Fed to be less committed to ensuring price stability in the future. The higher public debt burden, slower global …
16th November 2020
Financial repression – defined in the current context as measures that artificially lower the cost of government borrowing – will become an increasingly used tool to cope with higher public sector debt burdens post COVID-19. After all, it is more …
10th November 2020
We forecast that the returns from equities will beat those from government bonds in the world after COVID-19. However, we expect the outperformance of large-cap equities in the US to end. We have written extensively on our macroeconomic services about the …
20th October 2020
The state has taken on a much greater role in G7 countries during the pandemic and there is no guarantee that it will relinquish all its new powers when the coronavirus threat fades. The pandemic could accelerate the backlash against capitalism that had …
13th October 2020
In this Focus , we argue that the medium-term impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on both global economic growth and consumer behaviour has brought forward “peak oil demand” to around 2030 . As a result, we expect that real oil prices will be falling for much …
8th October 2020
The immediate costs of the COVID crisis will be shouldered more by governments than the private sector. However, as fiscal support recedes in the coming years, a greater share of the costs will be borne by households and firms, and ultimately by their …
30th September 2020
Global supply chains have functioned well this year despite the disruption of social distancing and lockdowns, and people in many places appear more appreciative of migrants. But the pandemic is widening the rift between China and the rest of the world. …
22nd September 2020
Although low inflation is likely to be the story over the next couple of years, the huge amount of policy stimulus could push up inflation further ahead. Central banks, in theory, have the tools to nip any rise in the bud. So the bigger risk is if there …
10th September 2020
It is by no means inevitable that the coronavirus crisis puts a big permanent hole in the supply capacity of economies (i.e. their ability to produce goods and services). With the right government policies, many economies should be able more or less to …
29th June 2020
As long as social distancing isn’t practised for many years, then those behavioural changes triggered specifically by the coronavirus crisis will probably prove temporary. But those changes that were already underway and which have been supercharged by …
23rd June 2020
We side with the optimists regarding the chances of another major technological step forward, although we can only guess at the timing. We expect the US to remain at the forefront of these advances for now, but it will not lead in all areas of new …
13th February 2020
