Filtered by Subscriptions: The Long Run Use setting The Long Run
Artificial intelligence (AI) is still not being used very widely outside of the ICT sector. But we remain confident that, in time, it has the potential to be used across all sectors and industries. Surveys of firms in the US and EU show that AI usage is …
19th November 2024
A year ago, we developed our proprietary AI Economic Impact Index, which ranks major economies according to their ability to realise the benefits of AI. (See our CE Spotlight on the economic and market impact of AI here .) We have updated that index, and …
11th October 2024
This summer’s falls in the share prices of companies involved in producing AI chips have prompted some to question whether the AI revolution will be quite the game-changer it has been built up to be. But it is important to separate the impact of AI on …
26th September 2024
Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 reform programme has resulted in major societal and cultural changes, but many of the economic reforms are currently not on track to hit their targets. That is not to say Vision 2030 should be dubbed a failure. But officials …
23rd September 2024
Several advanced economies have raised tariffs on imports of green technologies and semiconductors from China to address their growing trade deficits in these goods and tackle a perceived strategic weakness. As long as the process is gradual, this …
3rd September 2024
In its new urbanisation plan, China’s government is setting its targets low . The goal of reaching a 70% urbanisation rate in five years’ time could be met with far smaller increases in the urban population than have been seen in the past few years. And …
2nd August 2024
In detailed analysis last year, we concluded that equilibrium nominal interest rates would settle at between 3% and 4% in advanced economies in the next ten years. We maintain that opinion and in fact some of the forces boosting equilibrium rates seem to …
30th July 2024
As well as adversely impacting the growth of the workforce, ageing populations may also have a small negative impact on productivity. There is plenty of scope for this to be offset by a positive boost to productivity from the adoption of AI. However, …
29th July 2024
We think the capital market reforms announced as part of China’s Third Plenum won’t be enough to reinvigorate China’s equities, which we still think will provide disappointing long-run returns. It’s been a tough few days for China’s equities, which had …
26th July 2024
The downward revisions to global population growth in the UN’s latest projections won’t have a major bearing on our long-term GDP growth forecasts. That’s because a lot of the revision was driven by lower population projections in China, where we had …
16th July 2024
Exports from Taiwan, Korea and Vietnam have surged over the past 18 months, thanks to strong demand for AI-related products and friendshoring. In contrast, shipments from the rest of the region have struggled. We expect this divergence to continue over …
10th July 2024
There is huge uncertainty about whether fertility rates have reached a floor in those countries with the lowest rates. But even if they start to rise again, it is almost unavoidable that a rising number of countries will experience falling populations …
24th June 2024
The metals-intensive nature of green technologies will add to demand for a host of industrial and battery metals, with green demand for copper and aluminium likely to grow twice as quickly as traditional demand for both metals has in the past. That said, …
23rd May 2024
India is benefitting economically from maintaining its historical non-aligned stance in response to tensions between the West and Russia, and Iran to a lesser extent. But notwithstanding a potential universal tariff on all US imports under a second Trump …
16th May 2024
Increased immigration would be the easiest way for Singapore to offset a decline in the working age population. However, such a move would be politically controversial, and deciding how many foreign workers to allow into the country will be one of the …
14th May 2024
This interactive dashboard presents long-run total return forecasts for 22 headline indices covered on our Asset Allocation service. These are expressed in local-currency, USD, EUR, and GBP terms. If you have subscriber access to the data underlying this …
You can use the "Table of Contents" feature, found on the top right of the webpage, to navigate this publication quickly. Summary: The rally in equities over the past year or so, driven in no small part by hype around AI, has left stock markets looking …
24th April 2024
The slump in the yen has resulted in Germany overtaking Japan as the world’s 3 rd largest economy at market exchange rates. We expect Japan to overtake Germany yet again in the early 2030s as the yen strengthens and Japan benefits from higher productivity …
9th April 2024
One of the key problems for countries with ageing populations is how to tackle the associated fiscal costs. Those countries which have a good record for structural reform and/or scope to raise taxes should be able to mitigate or absorb those costs. But …
26th March 2024
Sub-Saharan Africa’s enormous demographic tailwind means the region will see the fastest GDP growth rates (4-5%) of any region between now and 2050. By the middle of the century, the region’s overall GDP will probably be larger than any single economy bar …
21st March 2024
There are so many uncertainties that it remains unwise to get carried away by the potential economic boost from the latest wave of weight loss drugs. Nonetheless, if use of the drugs continues to grow rapidly, it could ultimately give a significant boost …
14th March 2024
EMs will account for over half of global GDP within the next decade and almost 60% by 2050. Headlining this, India will become the world’s third-largest economy as soon as 2026. More generally, EMs with rapid population growth, the potential to develop …
11th March 2024
The green transition will deal a significant blow to EM oil producers that have failed to save their windfalls (Nigeria, Colombia, Angola), but boost the export revenues of economies such as Chile and South Africa that are endowed with the raw materials …
4th March 2024
The AI revolution should deliver substantial productivity gains in the coming decade, particularly in advanced economies. But with working age populations falling in key areas and China’s economy in structural decline, we expect global growth to slow …
20th February 2024
Although the recent transition to a higher interest rate climate has not caused any lasting or systemic financial flare ups, it is probably too soon to sound the all-clear. And while a higher interest rate climate in the medium-term will reduce …
8th February 2024
The high profile announcements from COP28 around renewable capacity pledges and fossil fuel usage are ambitious, but strike us as either overly optimistic or vague. While we think renewable energy consumption will increase markedly, fossil fuel usage is …
21st December 2023
Most major DMs need to shrink their primary budget deficits significantly and, for various reasons, most are likely to find it hard to do so. This will exacerbate growing worries about fiscal sustainability. Fiscal deficits increased significantly in …
20th December 2023
In this Global Economics Update , we describe eight of the biggest risks to our economic forecasts for 2024. The unusual nature of this cycle and uncertainties surrounding the transmission of monetary policy mean that the biggest risks relate to central …
30th November 2023
During the past decade, the global economy has transitioned out of an era in which globalisation was the key driver of economic and financial relationships into one shaped by geopolitics. Previously, most governments had believed that closer economic …
16th November 2023
Our Long Run Returns Monitor provides our updated long-term projected returns for major asset classes. All projections in this publication are as of 1st November 2023. Our latest projections have been influenced by the recent body of work that we’ve done …
2nd November 2023
The full report is available to download from the button at the top right to Global Economics, Global Markets, Asset Allocation and The Long Run subscribers, as well as to CE Advance clients. If this is outside of your current subscription and you would …
17th October 2023
Chapter 4: Financial market implications …
Chapter 3: Where will inflation (and nominal rates) settle? …
Chapter 2: How will the savings/investment balance affect r*? …
Chapter 1: Will stronger potential growth boost r*? …
Introduction and framework …
r* and the end of the ultra-low rates era: executive summary …
The sell-off in bond markets has taken a breather today, helped in part by softer data on the US labour market. However, the scale of the moves over the past week has invoked comparisons to previous financial crises that have been caused by sharp moves in …
4th October 2023
Saudi Arabia’s labour market has strengthened markedly in its post-pandemic recovery and the headline figures mask a dramatic shift in the size and composition of the labour force. In particular, social reforms have helped the female participation rate to …
Investment in the green transition is unlikely to rise quickly enough this decade to help achieve net zero by 2050. But a greater focus on areas including renewables and electric vehicles will still probably push up investment’s share of global GDP by …
25th September 2023
The G20 summit which concluded yesterday in New Delhi supported our view that the global economy is fracturing into US and China-led blocs, and that India still leans to the former. While the statement was light on explicit policies, calls to increase …
11th September 2023
China’s push to develop the BRICS bloc into a geo-political counterweight to the G7 is likely to be thwarted by the competing interests and priorities of other member states. Nonetheless, positioning ahead of this week’s BRICS summit will provide some …
21st August 2023
The message from electric vehicle sales data is now clear: the EV revolution is alive and kicking and poses important implications for oil demand. We are slightly more optimistic on the pace of EV adoption than other forecasters and suspect the drag on …
31st July 2023
Egyptian policymakers’ commitment (or lack of) to economic orthodoxy continues to provide cause for concern and, while we don’t share the view that sovereign default is a serious risk, the near-term economic outlook is challenging. Over a longer …
20th July 2023
Our Long Run Returns Monitor provides our updated long-term projected returns for major asset classes. All projections in this publication are as of 7th July 2023. We publish more detailed explanation of our views in our annual Long Run Asset Allocation …
11th July 2023
EMs will account for over half of global GDP within the next decade and almost 60% by 2050. India will become the world’s third-largest economy before 2030. More generally, EMs with rapid population growth, with potential to develop into manufacturing …
26th June 2023
A series of high-level diplomatic meetings this week have raised hopes that strains in US-China relations will start to ease. But the politics of fragmentation was never likely to proceed in a linear direction. And even if there is a thaw in political …
20th June 2023
Note: We’re talking inflation and the BOJ, slowing Indian growth, and regional monetary easing in our Asia Drop-In on Thursday, 22 nd June. Register now . The female participation rate has surged over the past decade but more favourable attitudes among …
19th June 2023
How low Fed and ECB policy rates will go, when they are eventually normalised, is at least as important for financial markets as the precise timings of the ends of tightening cycles, in our view. We think both central banks will cut deeper than investors …
16th June 2023
In theory, there is plenty of scope for those countries set to age most rapidly over the coming few decades to cushion the impact on their workforces via migration and a rise in both female and older participation rates. However, in many cases, this will …
4th May 2023
