Filtered by Subscriptions: Bonds & Equities Use setting Bonds & Equities
Although our China Activity Proxy suggests that growth in China’s economy has picked up significantly over the past year, we expect growth to slow in the coming quarters as policy support is withdrawn. However, we still think that the MSCI China index – …
24th March 2017
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Is the Trump trade over? …
23rd March 2017
The valuations of many assets have rarely been as high as they are now. When they have reached such levels in the past, sharp falls have often followed. This suggests that there is a significant risk of a collapse in prices. … Do stretched valuations …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Investors long, but probably not wrong, on the US dollar …
22nd March 2017
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Is a major correction in asset prices around the corner? …
21st March 2017
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Is this just another temporary setback for the US dollar? …
20th March 2017
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Will the strength of emerging market currencies be sustained? …
17th March 2017
Although Treasury yields have fallen back a bit after this week’s anticipated tightening of US monetary policy, we think that the bear market in bonds will resume soon. If history is a guide, the 10-year yield is likely to peak shortly before the federal …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Twin supports for Euro may not last …
16th March 2017
After raising rates yesterday, we expect the Fed to continue tightening the screws and hike by more than investors are expecting over the next couple of years. However, we think that few emerging market (EM) central banks will follow suit. If we are …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Will the Fed spring any surprises on the markets? …
15th March 2017
We think that the outlook for monetary policy in the US and Japan is consistent with an even stronger dollar against the yen. We are therefore sticking to our forecast that the exchange rate will rise further, from around ¥115/$ now to ¥130/$ by the end …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Yen likely to fall further against the dollar …
14th March 2017
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Should shareholders be more fearful of the Fed? …
13th March 2017
The strong US Employment Report for February has all but sealed the deal for an interest rate rise at this week’s FOMC meeting. Risky asset markets seem relatively unfazed by the prospect, given how they have reacted as the chances of a March hike have …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Risky assets likely to weather future Fed tightening …
10th March 2017
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Sell-off in German Bunds unlikely to gather momentum …
9th March 2017
Emerging market (EM) assets have fared quite well over the past month, despite investors expecting the Fed’s next hike to arrive sooner than they did previously. But we doubt that the resilience of markets will last for long. … Bond markets still …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Treasuries remain vulnerable to tighter Fed policy …
8th March 2017
The absence of a further sell-off in the US Treasury market so far this year has called into question our forecast that the 10-year yield will rise by a percentage point during the remainder of 2017. Nonetheless, we continue to think that …
7th March 2017
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … What next for US government bonds? …
Recent market movements have left the valuations of many assets looking stretched. But emerging market (EM) equities are an exception – their valuations still look low relative to those of EM bonds and developed market equities. Admittedly, the valuations …
The fate of the US stock market tends to be determined by economics rather than by politics. As a result, it should not be surprising that shareholders have shrugged off both Trump’s recent spat with the judiciary and the various malpractices that are …
6th March 2017
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Will politics eventually take a toll on US equities? …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … How unusual are late-cycle surges in stock prices? …
3rd March 2017
The valuations of many assets now look stretched in a historical context. For example, the price/earnings ratio of the US stock market is now far above its very long-run average, and the spreads of emerging market (EM) speculative-grade corporate bonds …
The gap between the yields of 10-year government bonds in the US and the UK has grown to its largest level in more than thirty years. Even so, we continue to forecast that it will get bigger. … The underperformance of Treasuries is likely to …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Gap between Treasury and Gilt yields likely to get even bigger …
2nd March 2017
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Are high valuations the harbinger of a collapse in asset prices? …
1st March 2017
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … The relief rally in US Treasuries is unlikely to last much longer …
28th February 2017
Although US equities have surged and US government bonds have rallied since Donald Trump entered the White House, we don’t expect this pattern to continue. … What next for US equities and …
27th February 2017
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Are equities ignoring the message in bonds? …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Will the Dow’s winning streak soon be over? …
24th February 2017
The recent improvement in the global economic backdrop has been mirrored by a pick-up in growth across frontier markets. National accounts data released by early-reporting frontiers over the past month showed most economies recorded stronger growth in the …
Having lost ground against the dollar in the aftermath of the US elections, emerging market (EM) currencies have staged a recovery since President Trump’s inauguration. Nonetheless, we still expect that most of them will weaken this year. … Rebound in EM …
An overhaul of the US corporate tax code would probably provide a net boost to S&P 500 earnings. Nonetheless, we suspect that it would be small and that it has now been largely discounted in equity prices. For the time being we continue to forecast that …
23rd February 2017
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Has the US stock market got too excited about tax reform? …
Having traded sideways in January, strong economic data and growing anticipation of major tax reform have since driven the S&P 500 higher. Indeed, the index has risen by more than 3% since the start of the month, despite a mildly hawkish Senate testimony …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Euro likely to slide even further …
22nd February 2017
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … PMIs suggest near-term outlook for equities remains favourable …
21st February 2017
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Will US equities shrug off a renewed rise in Treasury yields? …
20th February 2017
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Euro’s resilience may not last much longer …
17th February 2017
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Will equity markets continue welcoming a more hawkish Fed? …
16th February 2017
While US break-even inflation rates have recently risen, this appears primarily to reflect increased uncertainty about the inflation outlook. As actual expectations for inflation rise and investors reassess the prospects for Fed policy accordingly, US …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … What next for UK gilt yields? …
15th February 2017
The latest rise in industrial metals prices has provided a welcome fillip to emerging market equities, which are now at their highest level for more than a year and a half. However, we think that this boost will soon fade, because we expect the prices of …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Fed likely to raise rates more than expected, but not before June …
14th February 2017
The news that Japanese investors have been selling large amounts of US Treasuries reinforces our view that reduced appetite from overseas investors will play a role in driving up their yields this year. Our end-2017 forecast for the 10-year yield is 3.5%, …
13th February 2017
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Will rising metals prices continue to boost EM equities? …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Dollar’s resurgence likely to continue …
10th February 2017
