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Do high valuations signal a crash in asset prices?

The valuations of many assets now look stretched in a historical context. For example, the price/earnings ratio of the US stock market is now far above its very long-run average, and the spreads of emerging market (EM) speculative-grade corporate bonds are well below their average of the past two decades. However, we don’t think that this means a major sell-off is imminent.

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