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After some brief respite, US Treasuries have come under fire again. Indeed, the 10-year yield has now rebounded to its highest level since last spring. We expect its rise to continue this year, as the Fed tightens policy by more than investors are …
18th January 2018
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Is investors’ growing optimism on equities misplaced? …
17th January 2018
Sentiment towards emerging market (EM) dollar bonds has remained remarkably positive recently. The spread of the JP Morgan EMBI Global is around its lowest since 2014. Issuance has surged. And flows into EM debt funds have hit record levels. However, we …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Good times may soon be over for EM dollar bonds …
16th January 2018
South Korea’s announcement that it plans to ban cryptocurrency exchanges has coincided with rumours that China is planning to enforce a complete ban on Bitcoin mining. Could this new wave of regulatory pressure be the trigger that finally bursts the …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Is the good news on US corporate earnings fully discounted? …
15th January 2018
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Could the IT sector spoil the party in equity markets? …
12th January 2018
Although the MSCI Emerging Markets (EM) Index of equities has hit the ground running again in 2018, we think that the rally will fizzle out before long. … Flying start to 2018 for EM equities not likely to …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Rally in EM equities likely to run out of steam this year …
11th January 2018
We expect the dollar to stage a modest rebound against most other developed market currencies this year, as the contrast in the monetary policies of the Fed and other major central banks generally proves to be a bit starker than investors are …
We are forecasting that the Fed will be a bit more hawkish this year than the markets appear to be envisaging. In our view, the US economy, which is already close to full capacity, will start to slow in the second half of 2018 as monetary tightening takes …
10th January 2018
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Do Treasury yields really have a lot further to rise? …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Decline in credit spreads not likely to last a lot longer …
9th January 2018
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Is there any life left in the US dollar? …
8th January 2018
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Will this late-cycle surge in US equity prices continue? …
5th January 2018
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Global composite PMI underlines boost from growth to equities …
4th January 2018
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Euro unlikely to remain on the front foot for long …
3rd January 2018
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Good news from China for EM equities unlikely to last …
2nd January 2018
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … 2018 unlikely to be another barnstorming year for risky assets …
21st December 2017
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Is the outperformance of EM equities over? …
20th December 2017
Frontier markets have enjoyed a recovery in 2017, with aggregate GDP growth set to reach close to 3%, up from a seven-year low of 2.3% in 2016. Frontiers in Latin America and Sub-Saharan Africa have exited recession, while growth has strengthened among …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Another conundrum in the Treasury market …
19th December 2017
Shiller’s cyclically-adjusted price/earnings (CAPE) ratio for the S&P 500 has climbed to around 32. The last time it rose to such a high level was in the late 1990s, shortly before equity prices in the US plunged. Nonetheless, we don’t think that they …
18th December 2017
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Is there a bubble in the US stock market now? …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … What to expect from emerging markets in 2018 …
15th December 2017
Although EM currencies are much stronger on average against the dollar now than they were at the start of 2017, most of them still do not appear significantly overvalued. … EM currencies do not appear …
14th December 2017
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Monetary policy hasn’t lost its capacity to surprise …
Despite the prospect of more monetary tightening in the US than investors are anticipating next year, we think that local factors will have more of a bearing on monetary policy in emerging markets (EMs) then. Reflecting this, we would not be surprised to …
13th December 2017
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Does monetary policy still matter for euro/sterling? …
It is possible that there will be very little reaction in the Treasury market after the end of the FOMC meeting today. After all, the implied probability of a 25bp rate hike has been close to 100% for a while. But there may be a bigger impact if …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Are Treasuries braced for any change to the Fed’s projections? …
12th December 2017
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Fed policy not the key for EM local currency bonds …
11th December 2017
We think that investors are still underestimating the extent to which the Fed will tighten policy next year. As a result, we forecast that the dollar and Treasury yields will rise in 2018. We don’t think that this will take a big toll on US equities, …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … How worrying is the bubble in bitcoin? …
8th December 2017
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … What’s in store for developed markets in 2018? …
7th December 2017
A couple of years ago, worries about China caused the last major correction in stock markets around the world. With the MSCI China Index plunging recently, could something similar be around the corner? Possibly. But because the latest drop is not …
Volatility in the US Treasury market remains very low by the standards of the past. Although we expect it to rise next year as the Fed catches investors a bit off guard, we doubt that it will surge. … Will volatility in the Treasury market pick up in …
6th December 2017
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … How worrying is the recent slide in the MSCI China Index? …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … How hard would the collapse of Brexit talks hit sterling? …
5th December 2017
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Is US tax reform a double-edged sword for EM equities? …
4th December 2017
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … How will OPEC’s decision affect financial markets? …
1st December 2017
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … What would the fallout be from another slump in IT shares? …
30th November 2017
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … What does the future hold for sterling, Gilts and the FTSE 100? …
29th November 2017
For most of this year, the dollar’s value against other “majors” has tracked the gap between 10-year government bond yields in the US and the countries where these other currencies are issued. However, this relationship has broken down over the past …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Some reasons for optimism on UK banks’ shares …
28th November 2017
Even though emerging market (EM) credit spreads are generally very low by past standards, we do not think that a surge is around the corner. … Low EM credit spreads may last a while …
The US stock market has now bounced back from a recent wobble. However, with the S&P 500 around a record high, it is still worth asking when the next significant and sustained correction might materialise, and what impact that would have on stock markets …
27th November 2017
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … We find the dollar’s recent slide mystifying …
Frontier markets have been gripped by political upheaval in recent weeks. In the largest frontier economy, Saudi Arabia, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (known as MbS) has overseen a high-profile anti-corruption crackdown. Tackling corruption is clearly …
24th November 2017
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Would a setback for the US stock market be contagious? …
