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We think most developed market (DM) central banks will look through temporary rises in inflation and leave rates unchanged until at least early 2023. Even so, we expect the yields of 10-year DM government bonds to rise in the next couple of years, …
3rd June 2021
We think that Australia’s GDP expanded by about 0.5% q/q in Q1 (02.30 BST) UK consumer credit data are likely to show that card spending picked up (09.30 BST) Read our highest conviction macro forecasts and their market implications here Key Market Themes …
1st June 2021
We expect US non-farm payroll to have risen by 500,000 this month (Fri.) ISM surveys are likely to suggest that supply constraints in the US intensified (Tue. & Thu.) We think China’s manufacturing and services PMIs edged up in May (Mon. & Thu.) Key …
28th May 2021
We think that US real consumption was unchanged in April (13.30 BST) The EC’s measure of euro-zone consumer confidence probably rose in May (10.00 BST) Read our latest views on currencies on our recently launched FX Markets Service here Key Market Themes …
27th May 2021
We forecast that emerging market (EM) equities will make further gains between now and end-2022 as the global economy recovers further. However, they have lost a bit of ground to developed market (DM) equities recently and we doubt they will perform much …
We expect the S&P 500 to make only small gains over the next few years. But we think some sectors – such as financials – will continue to do better than the index as a whole. The rally in the S&P 500 has lost some steam lately . After gaining ~11% over …
We think US durable goods orders grew by a healthy 4.2% m/m in April (13.30 BST) With inflation subdued, we think the Bank of Korea will leave interest rates unchanged Read our latest views on currencies on our recently launched FX Markets Service here …
26th May 2021
RBNZ likely to leave policy settings on hold despite new housing mandate (03.00 BST) Unemployment in Sweden may have edged down in April (08.30 BST) Read our latest views on currency markets on our recently launched FX Markets Service here Key Market …
25th May 2021
The Ifo Survey in Germany probably rose again in May (07.00 BST) Inflation in Brazil is likely to have jumped, leading to tighter monetary policy (13.00 BST) We expect Hungary’s central bank to leave rates unchanged but update guidance (13.00 BST) Key …
24th May 2021
Sentiment indicators likely to show recovery gaining momentum in Europe US durable goods orders probably rose further in April… (Thu.) … but personal spending may have flat-lined in real terms as stimulus boost faded (Fri.) Key Market Themes The latest …
21st May 2021
Extended delays to vaccine supply from India to the Covax facility will keep rollout in many Frontier Markets stuck in first gear. Social distancing measures will have to stay in place for longer, holding back economic recoveries, and the risk of renewed …
While inflation fears have taken some steam out of the US stock market rally recently, we still think that equities in the US, and elsewhere, will make further gains over the next couple of years. Much of the focus in the markets over the past few weeks …
20th May 2021
Inflation in Japan probably remained negative in April (00.30 BST) UK retail sales probably surged last months as shops reopened (07.00 BST) We think May PMIs improved in Europe and the UK, but they may have fallen a bit in the US Key Market Themes …
South Africa’s central bank is likely to keep its rate at 3.5% due to weak economic growth We expect that higher headline inflation in Saudi Arabia will only last until June We think unemployment in Australia fell to 5.4% in April as wage subsidies ended …
19th May 2021
We expect long-term Treasury yields to rise more decisively before long, driven by long-term real yields. The nominal 10-year Treasury yield has bounced around a bit following some significant data releases lately . (See here .) But the big picture is …
FOMC minutes to be scrutinised for signs that officials are worried about inflation UK CPI inflation likely to have picked up sharply in April (07.00 BST) We suspect policymakers in South Africa will look through temporary spike in inflation Key Market …
18th May 2021
We think that the UK labour market held up quite well in March (07.00) Chile’s GDP probably rose in Q1, although it faces renewed political uncertainty (13.30 BST) US housing starts probably remained strong last month (13.30 BST) Key Market Themes We …
17th May 2021
While we don’t think there is much scope for corporate credit spreads generally to narrow much further from here, in our view spreads in the euro-zone could fall a bit more than those in the US or the UK. Despite the wobble in equity markets over the past …
13th May 2021
US producer prices figures may provide further signs of inflationary pressure (13.30 BST) Central banks of Mexico and Chile likely to keep policy rates on hold Our new FX Markets Service launches today – click here to find out more Key Market Themes We …
12th May 2021
We think UK GDP grew about by 1.5% m/m in March, marking the start of a rapid rebound E-Z industrial production likely to have grown by around 0.5% m/m in March (10.00 BST) US headline CPI inflation may have risen close to 4% last month (13.00 BST) Key …
11th May 2021
NFIB and JOLT surveys likely to point to growing labour shortages in the US We think that China’s headline inflation jumped from 0.4% to 1.3% in April… (02.30 BST) … and that Brazil’s headline rate remained well above the central bank’s target (13.00 BST) …
10th May 2021
We expect equities in the euro-zone to outperform those in the US between now and the end of 2022 even as the economic recovery in the former continues to lag that in the latter . After underperforming the MSCI USA Index for the most part of 2020, the …
We don’t think stock markets in emerging Asia will come roaring back to life any time soon, and forecast relatively small increases in equity indices there over the next few years. Having been among the best performers during the earlier stages of the …
7th May 2021
We think that US non-farm payrolls rose by about 1.2m in April (13.30 BST) China’s export volumes probably remained very high last month Germany’s industrial production likely to have risen by around 2% m/m in March (07.00 BST) Key Market Themes Despite …
6th May 2021
Despite tentative signs of improvement in the euro-zone economy recently and our expectation that long-term US Treasury yields will rise significantly over the next couple of years, we forecast that the yields of 10-year euro-zone government bonds will …
Retail sales probably surged in Germany, but fell in France (10.00 BST) BoE likely to revise forecasts up, but push back against expectations of rate hikes (12.00 BST) We expect US jobless claims to confirm that the labour market is rebounding fast (13.30 …
5th May 2021
The final reading for Euro-zone PMIs for April likely to be revised down a touch (09.00 BST) ADP report may point to stronger US employment growth in April (13.15 BST) We expect Brazil’s central bank to hike its policy rate by 75bp (22.30 BST) Key Market …
4th May 2021
We expect Brazil’s central bank to hike its policy rate by 75bp, to 3.50% (Wed.) China’s Caixin services PMI will probably point to growth momentum waning (Thu.) US employment report likely to show continued acceleration in the pace of recovery (Fri.) Key …
30th April 2021
We continue to forecast that a strong recovery in the global economy and ongoing policy support will drive further increases in developed market (DM) and emerging market (EM) equities over the next couple of years. But given our view that the yields of …
The Fed is likely to leave its current policy settings unchanged this evening… … but we think data tomorrow will show Q1 US GDP growth hit 7.0% annualised (13.30 BST) Euro-zone economic sentiment was probably unchanged in April (10.00 BST) Key Market …
28th April 2021
Fed likely to strike an optimistic tone but maintain its dovish stance (19.00 BST) Biden due to unveil details of $1.5tn American Families Plan Read our highest conviction macro forecasts and their market implications here Key Market Themes We do not …
27th April 2021
We expect risk premia on emerging market (EM) bonds to diverge over the coming years even if appetite for “risky” assets generally continues to increase . To recap, after rising sharply in February-March last year, risk premia on EM bonds declined …
Higher inflation in Brazil may set the stage for further rate hikes (13.00 BST) We think that US consumer confidence continued to recover in April (15.00 BST) Bank of Japan & Sweden’s Riksbank will probably both keep policy settings unchanged Key Market …
26th April 2021
The Fed is likely to stick its dovish policy stance despite a brightening economic outlook (Wed.) We think a surge in consumption will have driven US GDP growth to 7.0% in Q1… (Thu.) … while we expect the euro-zone and Czech economies contracted in Q1 …
23rd April 2021
We doubt that the recent fall in long-term Treasury yields will persist, and are sticking with our view that they will rise a fairly long way by the end of the year. To recap, after increasing significantly in the first quarter of this year, long-term …
22nd April 2021
While the valuation of the MSCI Emerging Markets (EM) Latin America Index is now low both by past standards and on a relative basis, we think that further gains in the index will be driven mostly by expectations for strong earnings. To recap, the forward …
UK government borrowing probably hit a peacetime record in March (07.00 BST) We expect Russia’s central bank to hike its policy rate by 50bp (11.30 BST) Strong April PMIs look likely in the US & UK, but they may have declined in Europe Key Market Themes …
Higher energy prices probably pushed up inflation in the UK in March (07.00 BST) We think inflation in South Africa rose to 3.5% y/y, primarily due to base effects (09.00 BST) We expect the Bank of Canada to reduce the pace of its asset purchases (15.00 …
20th April 2021
We no longer expect the MSCI Switzerland Index to outperform the MSCI USA Index over the next couple of years and have lowered our end-2021 and end-2022 forecasts accordingly. Back in August, we predicted that the MSCI Switzerland Index would outperform …
Euro-zone bank lending survey likely to reinforce ECB’s resolve to keep policy loose UK unemployment rate probably remained around 5.0% in February (07.00 BST) Read our highest conviction macro calls, and their market implications here Key Market Themes …
19th April 2021
ECB may explain reasons behind the limited rise in PEPP purchases since its last meeting (Thu.) We expect PMI surveys to have rebounded in the UK, but fallen in the euro-zone in April (Fri.) Russia’s central bank likely to hike rates in response to high …
16th April 2021
We think the IMF’s anticipated $650bn Special Drawing Rights (SDR) allocation is unlikely to have a major market impact, although it might provide countries with falling exchange rates and low levels of reserves – such as Argentina and Turkey – some scope …
15th April 2021
We think China’s Q1 GDP growth slowed in q/q terms (03.00 BST) Euro-zone inflation probably remained low in March, but it could pick up soon (10.00 BST) April US consumer confidence may have been boosted by stimulus & reopening (15.00 BST) Key Market …
In our view, changes to the economic and policy outlook since the pandemic mean that corporate credit spreads in the US may remain lower than in their recent past for some time. Nonetheless, we see limited scope for them to fall much further from here. …
We think that US retail sales surged by 8.5% m/m in March… (13.30 BST) …and US industrial production rebounded by 2.8% m/m. (14.15 BST) We expect Turkey’s central bank to cut the policy rate by 200bp. (12.00 BST) Key Market Themes Although the stock …
14th April 2021
We think that transitory factors pushed inflation in Sweden above 2% in March (08.30 BST) Industrial production in the euro-zone probably fell due to supply shortages (10.00 BST) We expect March retail sales in the US surged following weaker sales last …
13th April 2021
US headline CPI likely to have jumped above 2% in March (13.30 BST) We think that the UK economy grew by 0.5% m/m in February (07.00 BST) Strong foreign demand probably continued to boost China’s exports last month Key Market Themes Although the euro has …
12th April 2021
US retail sales & industrial production probably surged last month (Wed.) We think that Turkey’s central bank will cut rates by 200bp, to 17.00% (Thu.) Read our highest convictions macro calls and their market implications here Key Market Themes The …
9th April 2021
We expect higher government bond yields in the US than in other developed markets (DMs) to push the US dollar up, as has generally been the case since the Global Financial Crisis. Admittedly, the relationship between the government bond yield gap and the …
Energy price effects may have boosted inflation in China, Brazil and Sweden last month We think that Germany’s industrial production rose strongly in April (07.00 BST) Canada’s employment probably grew in March, but is unlikely to do so this month (13.30 …
8th April 2021
