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October was a month of two halves. The rally in risky assets that has been fuelled by central bank liquidity and signs of growth continued during the first two weeks before a significant bout of profit-taking set in. We do not expect the sell-off to turn …
5th November 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Is the party over? …
The news that the Reserve Bank of India has bought gold from the IMF has been interpreted as very bullish for gold prices and bearish for the dollar. Neither is necessarily true: holdings of US currency and of gold have simply been swapped between two …
4th November 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Monetary stimulus still has not done its job …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … More monetary tightening from the RBA …
3rd November 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Don’t expect any change from the Fed …
2nd November 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … The party is not over for Russian equities – at least not yet …
30th October 2009
Stock markets have fallen sharply around the world this week, but Russian equities have performed particularly badly. We think renewed gains are likely in the near term, but Russian stocks are likely to come under significant pressure next year. The …
29th October 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Treasuries won’t suffer just because the Fed stops buying …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Treasuries – who will fill the Fed’s shoes? …
28th October 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Rally in emerging market equities probably has further to go …
GDP growth in emerging markets is likely to outpace that of developed economies over the coming quarters. This, in turn, should ensure that emerging equities continue to outperform high-income country stocks. Somewhat paradoxically, given the …
27th October 2009
Asset markets have continued to perform strongly across the board, underpinned by exceptionally loose monetary policy and signs of economic growth. The favourable backdrop should persist over the next few quarters. However, many riskier asset classes are …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Indian bonds are best avoided …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … GDP data should confirm an end to US downturn …
26th October 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Gold 2,300? …
23rd October 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … When will China break the renminbi peg? …
22nd October 2009
A shift in rhetoric from China’s government suggests that a change in monetary and currency policy may not be far behind. But when it comes, the change will be gradual. In particular, the renminbi will move away from the dollar next year only at a slow …
21st October 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … EMBI spread to narrow further …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … UK inflation outlook poses no lasting threat to gilts …
20th October 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … How much further will the dollar fall against the euro? …
19th October 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Growing Fed divisions cloud outlook for US rates …
16th October 2009
The new highs seen in recent weeks are unlikely to mark the resumption of the sustained bull market that saw gold prices quadruple between 2001 and 2008. Assuming at least a partial recovery in the dollar in the coming months, we expect gold prices to …
15th October 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … More to exchange rates than monetary policy …
Expectations have been growing that the central banks of Canada, Norway and New Zealand will soon join Australia on what is thought to be a prolonged tightening cycle. This has been supporting the ongoing rally in the currencies of these high-income …
14th October 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Bank of Japan to withdraw emergency measures? …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Re-pricing of oil would have little impact on the dollar …
13th October 2009
The re-pricing of oil in some unit other than the dollar should, on its own, have no direct effect on the value of the US currency. It might accelerate the rebalancing of official reserves away from US assets and would presumably be symbolic of a more …
12th October 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … The sweet spot for equities will eventually turn sour …
The authorities in Asia may be protesting recent strong FX gains but there is little evidence they are intervening directly. Indeed, appreciation reflects both dollar weakness and local economic strength and, while central banks will continue to challenge …
9th October 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Are US earnings expectations realistic? …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Little margin for error …
8th October 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Real yields in a world of expected inflation …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Real yields – how far could they fall? …
7th October 2009
The US equity market enjoyed another good month in September. The good times may roll on for a while as the incoming data improve. But as risk appetite starts to taper off, there may be trouble ahead. … Stocks still strong, but for how long? (Sep …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Tory spending cuts are just the beginning …
The price of gold has finally risen above the previous record intra-day high of $1034/oz hit on 17th March 2008, raising hopes that the bull market that saw prices more than quadruple from a low of $255 in 2001 is back on again. Indeed, three factors …
6th October 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … The EMBI rally is pretty much over …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Farewell to the G7? …
5th October 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Best days look over for emerging debt and the EMBI …
2nd October 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Dollar still the world’s favourite reserve currency …
The recent slide in the dollar’s share of global foreign exchange reserves greatly exaggerates the extent to which reserve managers are losing faith in the dollar. The dollar is still entrenched as the world’s dominant reserve currency. … End of the …
1st October 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Yen strength is here to stay …
Speculation that there has been a change in Japan’s policy toward FX market intervention misses the point. The yen is not expensive in real trade-weighted terms, and has mainly climbed on Japan’s relatively strong economic recovery and the increasing use …
30th September 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Recovery in US house prices continues …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Sterling is not fundamentally overvalued …
29th September 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Sterling is fundamentally fine …
28th September 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Pace of US job losses to continue easing …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Treasury yields have plenty of room to fall …
25th September 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … What is the Baltic Dry Index telling us? …
24th September 2009
