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The current pick-up in headline inflation in the major economies is largely due to adverse base effects in energy prices. These base effects will fade soon even if oil prices now simply level out at around $70-75 per barrel (pb). However, we continue to …
16th December 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … 2010 should be a good year for US Treasuries …
Received wisdom has it that 2010 will be a bad year for US Treasuries. We disagree and expect the 10- year yield to drop back to around 2.5%. … Why the Treasury bears have got it …
15th December 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Abu Dhabi rides to Dubai’s rescue …
It is often assumed that the Fed’s monetary expansion has been unambiguously bad news for the dollar and could eventually lead to a collapse in the US currency. The reality is more complicated. We continue to expect the dollar to recover some more ground …
14th December 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … No need for the FOMC to change its tune …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … US companies still in no mood to gear up …
11th December 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Gold prices to fall below $1000/oz in 2010 …
Today’s Flow of Funds report published by the Federal Reserve reveals that the market value of the equity issued by US non-financial companies at the end of the third quarter was 0.91 times the net worth (assets minus liabilities) of those companies at …
10th December 2009
We do not believe that gold prices have risen beyond levels that could ever be justified by fundamentals. However, the absence of a bubble today will not prevent prices from falling back sharply next year as some of the fundamental supports for gold fall …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Are emerging market equities in a bubble? …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … No sign yet of bubbles in emerging markets …
9th December 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Greece feels the pain …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Is the worst now over for the dollar? …
8th December 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … US labour market recovering, but higher rates a long way off …
7th December 2009
The increases in many asset prices since the spring have been spectacular, and most markets chalked up further gains in November. Nonetheless, the rally has begun to look tired. Recent events in Dubai are not likely to mark a new phase in the global …
4th December 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Future still bright for German government bonds …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … How much longer before the US equity market hits a wall? …
3rd December 2009
The rally in the US equity market is nine months old and still going strong. This is not surprising. Equity prices typically start to rise six months or so before the economy emerges from recession. They also tend to go on climbing during the early stages …
2nd December 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Markets underwhelmed by Bank of Japan’s latest move …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Dubai’s worst case fears diminish …
1st December 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … How worried should we be about a default in Greece? …
30th November 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Dubai or sell? …
27th November 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Is China's appetite for commodities fading? …
We believe the surge in global asset prices owes much more to falling risk premiums associated with a fundamental improvement in the economic outlook than to a wave of liquidity created by central banks. Nonetheless, the absence of bubbles does not mean …
26th November 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … The good news on US corporate profits is unlikely to last …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … US corporate profits won’t soar forever …
25th November 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … US investors continue to seek out better returns abroad …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … In search of a home from home …
24th November 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … The last gold bear? …
The latest surge in the price of gold could be justified by the desire for insurance against the risks of inflationary bubbles developing in other assets, as well as a collapse in the US dollar. But as these risks are probably much lower than generally …
23rd November 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Likely downward revision to US Q3 GDP …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Will the sun ever rise on Japan’s stock market? …
20th November 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Expectations of renminbi appreciation already being scaled back …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Capital controls unlikely, but rupiah to strengthen anyway …
19th November 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Bubble trouble? …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Are we really in a bubble? …
18th November 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … What should we make of the widening EMBI spread? …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Is the widening in the EMBI spread a warning sign? …
17th November 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Are central banks creating new asset bubbles? …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Strong US consumption in Q3 was a one-off …
16th November 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Bonds and equities are not breaking up just yet …
13th November 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … A darker outlook for the yen …
12th November 2009
The yield on Japanese government bonds (JGBs) has risen sharply in recent weeks. Admittedly, yields have risen in other countries. But an additional factor has been concern that the new government is loosening the purse strings when Japan can ill afford …
11th November 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … A tough six months ahead for Indian stocks …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Inflation expectations may not have much further to rise …
The recent rise in longer-term government bond yields primarily reflects expectations of higher inflation. These expectations are still relatively low and could climb a little further in the coming months as headline inflation accelerates. However, we …
10th November 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Bank costs to rise, regardless of Tobin tax …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Markets shrug off rise in US unemployment …
9th November 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Rates going nowhere in the majors …
6th November 2009
