Filtered by Subscriptions: Bonds & Equities Use setting Bonds & Equities
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … What impact will commodity prices have on inflation? …
7th January 2011
Despite some hopes to the contrary, China is unlikely to be able or willing to do much to solve the debt crisis in the euro-zone. China was presumably already buying a significant amount of peripheral government bonds last year and yet this has not …
6th January 2011
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … What should we read into the strong ADP employment report? …
The surge in US Treasury yields in December was prompted largely by the announcement of further fiscal stimulus, which nurtured expectations of economic growth; increased anxiety about the budget deficit; and reduced the (perceived) onus on the Fed to …
5th January 2011
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … What is the link between economic growth and bond yields? …
One approach to forecasting long-term government bond yields is to assume that they should normally match the rate of growth of nominal GDP. For example, this approach is currently being used by some to support forecasts that 10-year US Treasury yields …
4th January 2011
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Global growth is set to slow …
23rd December 2010
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … US corporate bonds should have another good year in 2011 …
22nd December 2010
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Gold to maintain its allure despite fading inflation fears …
21st December 2010
The improvement in the near term prospects for the global economy has prompted us raise our end- 2011 price forecasts for industrial commodities. However, our new forecasts of $75 per barrel for oil and $7,500 per metric tonne for copper remain (well) …
20th December 2010
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … EU statement does little to address investors' uncertainties …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … EU Council meeting set to disappoint …
17th December 2010
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … China's demand for commodities is set to wane …
16th December 2010
Based on a plausible scenario for the evolution of the sustainable growth rate of the economy and the commodity-intensity of activity, China’s commodity demand in 2025 could be half the level that a simple extrapolation of the recent trends would suggest. …
15th December 2010
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … The US equity market is likely to struggle next year …
The US equity market is ending the year with a flourish. The S&P 500 has risen by about 5% so far in December, and is not far shy of our year-end target of 1250. Nonetheless, we are sceptical the rally is built to last. … 2011 looks less promising for the …
14th December 2010
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Better days should lie ahead for US Treasuries …
We do not believe that the recent jump in Treasury yields marks the start of a prolonged bear market. Provided, as we expect, the economic recovery ultimately disappoints and the Fed keeps short-term interest rates near zero, 10-year yields are likely to …
13th December 2010
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … No need to panic about inflation in China …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … The US equity risk premium is likely to rise again next year …
10th December 2010
Aside from this week’s fiscal stimulus proposals, one explanation being provided for the sell-off in US government bonds is that they look expensive relative to US equities. We agree, but we don’t expect to see the equity risk premium shrink any further. …
9th December 2010
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … What does further US fiscal stimulus mean for asset markets? …
The unexpected scale of the fiscal stimulus agreed by the Obama administration and Republican leaders has caught the markets off guard. We think the rally in the dollar makes sense, and that investors are right to be sceptical about the implications for …
8th December 2010
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Common euro-zone bond issuance probably a long way off …
The establishment of a market for euro-zone government bonds that are guaranteed by all Member States is seen by some as an important contribution to a resolution of the region’s fiscal crisis. We are sceptical, however, that the idea will get off the …
7th December 2010
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … How big a risk is a global trade war? …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … US labour market remains in the doldrums …
6th December 2010
The dollar bounced back sharply in November, especially against the euro, as anxiety about the health of government finances increased dramatically in the peripheral economies of the euro-zone. US Treasury yields rose substantially in response to signs of …
3rd December 2010
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Better times ahead for US Treasuries …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … ECB unlikely to save the day …
2nd December 2010
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Downward pressure on the euro is unlikely to abate …
1st December 2010
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Euro-zone peripheral government debt to remain under pressure …
30th November 2010
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … US labour market on the mend, but still not well …
29th November 2010
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … China heading for a soft landing …
26th November 2010
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Would a ceiling on Treasury yields make much difference? …
25th November 2010
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Euro's decline likely to gather steam …
24th November 2010
The significance of the crisis in Ireland and the problems in other economies on the fringes of Europe is potentially far wider than their small size would suggest. The exposure of global financial institutions to the likes of Ireland is relatively …
23rd November 2010
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Irish bailout only a partial solution to the euro's problems …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … China roils global markets - and Bernanke …
22nd November 2010
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Central banks have another chance to explain themselves …
19th November 2010
We expect the Japanese yen to weaken further against the US dollar, to 90 next year and 100 in 2012 (from around 83 today), despite a steady grind higher in most other Asian currencies. In contrast to the rest of the region, Japan faces a long period of …
18th November 2010
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Global inflation worries overdone …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Too soon to conclude the Fed’s got it wrong …
17th November 2010
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Pressures on Greece and Ireland continue to mount …
16th November 2010
The fact that Treasury yields have risen rather than fallen since the Fed announced the launch of QE2 is not necessarily evidence that the policy is failing, especially when the US central bank has not yet even started to buy the additional bonds. …
15th November 2010
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … G20 statement - more style over substance …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … What next for Ireland? …
12th November 2010
The first day of the G20 Summit has been overshadowed by fresh accusations that the US is deliberately engaging in a policy of weakening the dollar and that this is somehow underhand or reprehensible. A lot of this criticism appears to be muddled. If, as …
11th November 2010
US nonfarm, nonfinancial companies have enjoyed a rapid increase in their return on equity (ROE). This does not, however, imply that the stock market is attractively valued. For one thing, the absolute level of firms’ ROE is likely to fall. For another, …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Food for reflection as agricultural commodities soar …
