One approach to forecasting long-term government bond yields is to assume that they should normally match the rate of growth of nominal GDP. For example, this approach is currently being used by some to support forecasts that 10-year US Treasury yields (now around 3.5%) will rise to between 4% and 5% this year and then settle there. In contrast, we continue to expect the yield on 10-year Treasuries to fall back later this year and to average around 2.5% in 2012.
Become a client to read more
This is premium content that requires an active Capital Economics subscription to view.
Already have an account?
You may already have access to this premium content as part of a paid subscription.
Sign in to read the content in full or get details of how you can access it
Register for free
Sign up for a free account to:
- Unlock additional content
- Register for Capital Economics events
- Receive email updates and economist-curated newsletters
- Request a free trial of our services