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This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Euro-zone should not bank on China to save the day …
29th June 2011
Despite warm words of support from China’s leaders, there is no reason to believe that China has the ability to solve the euro-zone’s debt crisis. We estimate that China has already bought more than €40bn of euro-denominated assets this year, many in …
28th June 2011
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Lower oil prices alone won't rescue the world economy …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Global slowdown sets tone for second half of the year …
25th June 2011
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Greece remains close to the brink …
24th June 2011
Recent data provide tentative evidence that China’s accumulation of foreign exchange reserves has significantly outpaced her net purchases of US government securities in recent months. This development may well lead to increased anxiety about the outlook …
23rd June 2011
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Are markets underestimating the potential fall-out from Greece? …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Emerging equities should outperform in second half of 2011 …
22nd June 2011
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Fed unlikely to bolster expectations of QE3 …
21st June 2011
We continue to expect the 10-year US Treasury yield to hit 2.5% by year-end. Admittedly, the Fed’s second round of quantitative easing (QE2) draws to a close this month, there are concerns that “surplus” global savings may soon dry up, and the US public …
18th June 2011
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Greece close to the edge …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … What next for the dollar? …
17th June 2011
We have revised our expectation of a large rebound in the value of the dollar. Although we still think some appreciation against the other “majors” is likely by the end of next year, we now forecast that the US currency will only rise to $1.30 against the …
16th June 2011
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … A second bail-out would not solve Greece's problems …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Bank of Japan unlikely to ease just to weaken the yen …
15th June 2011
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … US retail sales probably dropped sharply …
14th June 2011
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … ECB takes a tough line …
11th June 2011
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … US equities should fall further without the support of QE3 …
9th June 2011
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Prospects for UK gilts still seem rosy …
8th June 2011
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Oil prices likely to fall, whatever OPEC decides …
7th June 2011
Overseas investors appear to have lost their appetite for Japanese equities after a lengthy buying spree. This has presumably been due to the continued underperformance of Japan’s stock market despite historically attractive valuations. The most plausible …
6th June 2011
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Faltering US labour market gives Treasuries another lift …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … 10-year US Treasury yields should fall further …
3rd June 2011
10-year US Treasury yields dropped sharply in May. The principal catalyst for the decline was a further revision to expectations for short-term interest rates. Admittedly, investors now see little conventional monetary tightening on the horizon. But we …
2nd June 2011
The yield on 10-year Treasuries has fallen below 3% for the first time this year and by more than 60bp since early April. To some, this rally must inevitably come to an end soon. After all, the Fed’s second round of quantitative easing draws to a close …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Voluntary debt rescheduling no panacea for Greece …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Beware the seasonality in China's official PMI …
1st June 2011
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Growth in US payrolls likely to have slowed in May …
30th May 2011
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Outlook for US corporate profits is not rosy …
27th May 2011
US corporate profits expanded at an annualised rate of just over 5% in Q1, following an increase of nearly 10% in the prior quarter. Margins were boosted by renewed downward pressure on unit labour costs. Despite the prevailing high level of unemployment, …
26th May 2011
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … German Bunds should continue to prosper …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Can Belgium side-step the euro-zone's fiscal crisis? …
25th May 2011
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Commodity prices set to fall further …
24th May 2011
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … More discouraging news on the way in the US …
23rd May 2011
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Commodity prices vulnerable to more than just the end of QE2 …
20th May 2011
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Debt re-profiling would not resolve Greece's problems …
18th May 2011
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Breakeven inflation rates have further to fall …
17th May 2011
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … US CPI inflation should peak soon …
16th May 2011
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Fundamentals increasingly negative for industrial commodities …
13th May 2011
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Yen set to come under renewed pressure …
12th May 2011
The renewed appreciation of the yen over the past month has encouraged speculation that the Japanese currency will revisit the post-war record intraday high of 76.25 to the dollar seen on 17th March. However, while further gains are of course conceivable …
11th May 2011
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … China's commodity demand already weakening …
The Federal Reserve’s second round of quantitative easing (QE2) ends next month. Last November, the FOMC announced that the Fed would purchase an extra $600bn in US government bonds by th middle of this year in addition to reinvesting principal payments …
10th May 2011
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Greece's problems continue to mount …
The growth rate of US domestic corporate profits has outstripped the growth rate of the US economy significantly since the end of the Great Recession. However, corporate profits are now coming under pressure. This is another reason to be cautious on the …
9th May 2011
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Oil prices to fall below $90 by year-end …
This week’s sharp falls in commodity prices of all types may have been exaggerated by wild speculation but are mostly consistent with our view of the economic fundamentals. … Inflation fears to fade as commodity prices …
6th May 2011
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Will US Treasuries continue to outperform German Bunds? …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Portugal not off the hook …
5th May 2011
The yield on 10-year US Treasuries declined in April despite concerns about the looming end of QE2 and S&P’s decision to revise its outlook on the longterm credit rating of the US government from stable to negative. We expect the yield to end the year at …
4th May 2011
