Filtered by Subscriptions: Bonds & Equities Use setting Bonds & Equities
With the noise around US tariffs and war in the Middle East fading, at least for now, we think the stage is set for some further decent returns from “risky” assets – especially US equities – over the next couple of years. But we suspect commodities will …
26th June 2025
Our base case is that the turmoil across financial markets in the wake of President Trump’s “Liberation Day” announcement will continue to stabilise. As such, we assume that most asset prices and the dollar will recover some ground, with equities faring …
17th April 2025
We think US equities will fare better in 2025 than the other major asset classes we monitor, as the AI bubble inflates further. But we expect equities elsewhere generally to lag those in the US and provide worse returns than “safe” sovereign bonds. We …
17th December 2024
We expect equities to fare best among the major asset classes we track through the end of 2025, as the AI bubble reinflates. We suspect government and corporate bonds will generally do less well, despite monetary easing. But we still think they’ll provide …
25th September 2024
We continue to expect equities to outperform most other assets through the end of next year, as the hype around AI builds and lower inflation facilitates more monetary easing in some places than investors are discounting. The tech-heavy US stock market …
1st July 2024
We expect equities to outperform most other assets as a bubble fuelled by AI-enthusiasm continues to inflate, supported by a backdrop of resilient economic growth and monetary easing cycles. In particular, we expect US equities to continue to lead the …
4th April 2024
We think the rally in developed market (DM) government bonds will continue for a while yet, as some major central banks, including the Fed, ultimately cut by more than investors seem to expect. But we anticipate that yields will generally settle at much …
11th December 2023
We think the “higher-for-longer” narrative that has taken hold in the market won’t last through 2024. We suspect that central banks will generally cut faster than investors seem to expect and that, as a result, the bond market sell-off will turn into a …
28th September 2023
We continue to expect risky assets to struggle over the second half of this year, as major developed market (DM) economies slip into recessions. Meanwhile, we think DM sovereign bonds will rally; that’s partly due to safe-haven demand, and partly because …
26th June 2023
The recent turmoil in the global banking sector have sent ripples through financial markets. So far, a full-blown financial crisis doesn’t seem likely to us, although clearly any escalation would add to risky assets’ worries. But even if that is avoided, …
31st March 2023
We think the recent rallies in government bond markets will gain steam next year as inflationary pressures ease and central banks, especially the Fed, turn less hawkish. But, while rising real yields have probably been the biggest headwind for “risky” …
28th October 2022
We doubt the recent rallies in global bond and equity markets will be sustained over the remainder of the year. While we no longer think the 10-year US Treasury yield will exceed its June peak, we still expect it to rise as the Fed delivers a bit more …
3rd August 2022
We think the rises in global government bond yields – and falls in equity prices – have not run their course yet. Yields have typically peaked only shortly before the ends of central bank tightening cycles and we doubt this one will be different. We …
29th April 2022
Although government bond yields have already risen sharply this year, we think that they will continue to increase as central banks press ahead with monetary tightening this year and next. Higher yields will, in our view, weigh further on developed market …
28th January 2022
While long-dated government bond yields have risen quite a bit in recent months, we suspect that continued inflationary pressure and the prospect of tighter monetary policy means they still have some way to climb. We expect yields to rise by the most in …
27th October 2021
While long-dated government bond yields have plummeted in recent months, we suspect that high inflation and the prospect of tighter monetary policy will see them turn a corner before long. We forecast long-term yields to rise across most major economies, …
30th July 2021
We continue to forecast that a strong recovery in the global economy and ongoing policy support will drive further increases in developed market (DM) and emerging market (EM) equities over the next couple of years. But given our view that the yields of …
30th April 2021
We continue to forecast that risky assets generally will fare well over the next couple of years as the global economy recovers and monetary policy remains accommodative. Despite their rapid rise since the start of November, we don’t think that equity …
29th January 2021
We continue to think that risky assets will gain more ground and that the US dollar will weaken against a backdrop of a recovering global economy and continued accommodative monetary policy. In our view, the outcome of the recent US elections and the news …
13th November 2020
While risky assets have already rebounded a long way since their lows in March, we think that they will generally make further ground over the coming months, albeit at a slower pace. That view is underpinned by our forecast that the global economy will …
7th August 2020
We forecast further gains in most risky assets between now and the end of next year. This reflects our expectation of a rebound in economic activity starting in the second half of 2020, alongside the continuation of massive monetary and fiscal policy …
30th April 2020
After a stellar 2019 for most risky assets, we think that they will generally make only small gains in 2020. Admittedly, our forecasts assume that the effects of the coronavirus outbreak on markets will eventually unwind, since we simply don’t know how it …
27th January 2020
We have revised up our end-2019 forecasts for equities, which previously pointed to a large correction. But even without this big pothole, we continue to think that the road ahead for them will be bumpy. Admittedly, we had underestimated the extent to …
31st October 2019
The strong performance of both equities and government bonds this year reflects a view that monetary easing will put the global economy back on track very soon – an outlook that seems too benign to us. Central banks around the world are likely to loosen …
1st August 2019
