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This Briefing is a reference guide with our latest views and forecasts for Brazil’s economy, including the prospects for key macroeconomic and financial market variables such as gross domestic product, wages, the exchange rate and interest rates. … …
16th April 2019
Rising automation, excellent infrastructure and the migration of some productive capacity into the cheaper interior mean that China is likely to remain a highly competitive export manufacturing centre over the coming years. This will make it much harder …
15th April 2019
Compared to previous slowdowns, the recent resilience of labour markets in advanced economies hasn’t been that unusual. While we expect subdued economic growth to take the shine off the performance of labour markets in the coming months, unemployment …
12th April 2019
This Briefing is a reference guide with our latest views and forecasts for Australia’s economy, including the prospects for key macroeconomic and financial market variables such as gross domestic product, wages, the exchange rate and interest rates. … …
10th April 2019
A detailed breakdown of global exports suggests that the US-China trade war cannot be blamed for the slowdown in world trade. Instead, the underlying slowdown has featured a wide range of goods, with a drop in exports of electricals and materials causing …
9th April 2019
5th April 2019
World GDP growth seems to have slowed sharply in Q1, but the latest business surveys suggest that growth has bottomed out in some parts of the world at least. March’s unchanged global manufacturing PMI masked a stark divergence between the advanced and …
3rd April 2019
Contrary to the mainstream view that China will keep growing at fairly rapid rates, we expect GDP growth there to slow to 2% by 2030. This slowdown need not in itself be bad for the rest of the world, especially if slower growth continues to be …
This Briefing is a reference guide with our latest views and forecasts for Canada’s economy, including the prospects for key macroeconomic and financial market variables such as gross domestic product, wages, the exchange rate and interest rates. … …
This Briefing is a reference guide with our latest views and forecasts for Japan’s economy, including the prospects for key macroeconomic and financial market variables such as gross domestic product, wages, the exchange rate and interest rates. … …
2nd April 2019
It’s still far too early to say for sure, but March’s manufacturing PMIs offer some hope that the worst is over for the downturn in global manufacturing, at least outside the euro-zone. … Global manufacturing downturn starting to bottom …
1st April 2019
The flattening of yields curves over recent weeks has raised fears of a sharp economic slowdown to come. Central banks are unlikely to be led by the views of bond markets, not least because their actions and comments have driven at least part of the …
28th March 2019
The pick-up in world trade in January is little to cheer about. A partial rebound was always likely after the dreadful end to last year. Leading indicators suggest that world trade volumes will remain subdued in the near term, and sluggish global economic …
27th March 2019
Some have warned that the recent inversion of the US yield curve signals that a recession is coming, while others have warned against reading too much into the inversion. Our view is that the answer lies somewhere in the middle; we don’t expect a …
26th March 2019
The delay granted by the EU last night has pushed back Brexit by at least two weeks, from 29th March to 12th April, but four options remain on the table – deal, no deal, no Brexit or another delay. So it still makes sense to have different scenarios for …
22nd March 2019
March’s flash PMIs add to evidence that GDP growth was subdued in the three largest advanced economies in Q1, with Germany continuing to take the brunt of the global manufacturing slowdown. … Manufacturing malaise shows no signs of …
We expect headline inflation to fall further below 2% in the coming months, largely due to a renewed decline in oil prices and an associated fall in energy inflation. The previous strength of economic activity has caused some price pressures to emerge, …
20th March 2019
The length of any delay to Brexit beyond 29th March could have a fairly large bearing on the performance of the economy and the path taken by official interest rates. A delay of 12 months or more could even open the door to interest rate hikes within the …
15th March 2019
The broad tailwinds that lifted growth across the emerging world over the past two decades won’t be repeated and, as a result, GDP growth will be around two percentage points weaker over the next twenty years. Income convergence with the developed world …
13th March 2019
The second defeat of Theresa May’s Brexit deal in the UK Parliament has increased the risks to the UK economy by prolonging uncertainty and leaving a no deal a possibility. But for the world as a whole, we still expect the impact of even a no deal Brexit …
In contrast to the crisis of 2008/09, the recent decline in world GDP growth appears to have been due to a combination of national factors rather than a single global shock. While the slowdown has further to run, we expect it to resemble a normal cyclical …
World trade weakened much more than we had anticipated last year. As the global economy loses further momentum this year, world trade growth is likely to continue to be sluggish, regardless of whether the US and China broker a lasting deal on tariffs. … …
7th March 2019
World GDP growth was little changed at 3.1% annualised in Q4 as the euro-zone posted another modest expansion, US growth slowed from a strong pace and a pick-up in Japanese GDP offset part of Q3’s decline. But hard data for January have been disappointing …
6th March 2019
The key takeaway from today’s policy announcements at the opening of the National People’s Congress in China is that the leadership are still trying to balance efforts to support growth with concerns about financial risks. Officials pledged some moderate …
5th March 2019
Recent moves to tighten restrictions on foreign e-commerce firms are more a reflection of the Indian government wanting to boost popular support ahead of the general election than a fundamental shift in attitudes towards FDI. If the Modi government wins …
4th March 2019
We do not expect the trade deal that is taking shape between the US and China to transform the outlook for the world economy, not least because we always argued that the adverse effects of new and threatened bilateral tariffs would be small. But the …
Central bank independence seems to be increasingly under attack, raising fears that the success of central banks in anchoring inflation and inflation expectations in recent years could be reversed. We think that these fears are misplaced for developed …
February’s manufacturing PMIs suggest that the industrial downturn in advanced economies has worsened. Even the US is showing signs of succumbing to the widespread deterioration in industrial output. … Industrial downturn …
1st March 2019
A look at recent figures on stockbuilding and inventories provide another reason to think that the economic cycle has turned downwards. … Inventories data also hint at a …
The latest communications from advanced economy central banks imply that they have shifted away from a normalisation path towards closely monitoring incoming data to ascertain whether additional policy stimulus might be needed. Here, we outline the data …
28th February 2019
This Update cuts through the Brexit quagmire by highlighting four things we now know about Brexit, four things we don’t, and four implications for the economy and the financial markets. … The knowns and the unknowns of …
The computer revolution is positive for economic growth, but it also means that technological risks must be added to the threats facing the global economy. While the economic impact of the internet “going down” for a few days would actually be very small, …
26th February 2019
Since major euro-zone economies are more globalised than most, they are more sensitive to turns in the global business cycle. This partly explains why, having outperformed in 2017, they have underperformed during the past year while growth in the US has …
22nd February 2019
The economic cycle in most EMs has passed its peak and a combination of domestic headwinds and a slowdown in the global economy means growth will be weaker than most expect across the emerging world. One consequence is that monetary tightening cycles will …
21st February 2019
February’s flash PMIs show that the manufacturing downturn has deepened throughout advanced economies. The one comfort is that the surveys reported a pick-up in services sector activity. … Manufacturing sector has lost more momentum in …
We think that tariffs imposed in the past year can account for only a small part of the slowdown in global trade growth over the same period. The threat of future tariffs might also have hit trade through its effect on business confidence and investment. …
20th February 2019
Concerns that policymakers in developed countries do not have the tools to fight the next downturn are generally misplaced. There is plenty more they could do. The constraints will instead be reluctance to prolong the adverse side-effects from the use of …
15th February 2019
The recent contrast between a weakening euro-zone and resilient US seems to reflect the former’s higher exposure to world trade and the relative weakness of real disposable incomes growth there. We expect the gap to narrow as the US feels the effects of …
14th February 2019
The slowdown in growth in the emerging world this year is likely to be unusually broad-based. That will set a downbeat mood for EM assets over the course of this year. … EM slowdown to be …
13th February 2019
We expect financial conditions to tighten further this year in major advanced economies reflecting, but also exacerbating, slower economic growth. To monitor levels of stress in the financial system and the ease with which finance can be accessed, we have …
8th February 2019
Amid growing fears about the outlook for the global economy, it is worth highlighting where we and the consensus might be positively surprised. Possibilities include resilient US growth, a boost to consumer spending from falling oil prices and a pick-up …
7th February 2019
World GDP growth held up well in Q4, but there is clear evidence in surveys and other timely indicators that the global economy took a turn for the worse at the start of 2019. The weakness has been most acute in the euro-zone, where industrial production …
6th February 2019
Even if the Fed has stopped hiking interest rates sooner than we originally envisaged, we doubt that will prevent a marked economic slowdown this year. After all, that dovishness was partly prompted by the more severe than expected downturn in global …
The weakness of German consumption growth last year resulted partly from problems in the auto industry and partly from slowing real household income growth. Spending growth will probably accelerate a bit in the coming months, but not enough to prevent …
4th February 2019
Markit’s manufacturing PMIs for January add to evidence that the world economy is in the midst of a considerable slowdown and that the risk of a euro-zone recession is rising. The US remains a relative bright spot, but its resilience is unlikely to last …
1st February 2019
In advanced economies, monetary and credit conditions remain supportive. But bond issuance has been declining sharply in recent months, and credit growth in China is still slowing. … Monetary Indicators Monitor …
Signs of weakness in the global economy seem to have prompted a significant change of tack from central banks. Even in the US, where growth has so far held up well, the Federal Reserve appears reluctant to raise interest rates again and we are …
31st January 2019
A new strand of economics called “Modern Monetary Theory” (MMT) is seen by its advocates as a solution to the flawed economic thinking that contributed to the financial crisis. The ideas behind it could be a useful addition to the possible toolkit if …
