Filtered by Subscriptions: FX Use setting FX
The US dollar has risen against most currencies since the start of the year, while most of our estimates of the greenback’s “fair value” are little unchanged. Taken together, this leaves the dollar somewhat overvalued in our assessment. At this point, we …
15th March 2024
12th October 2023
While the US dollar has fallen against most currencies since the start of the year, our estimates of the greenback’s “fair value” are broadly unchanged, leaving it only somewhat overvalued in our assessment. The valuations of most G10 currencies …
21st July 2023
While banking sector strains have become less acute over recent weeks, core money markets remain tense as uncertainty grows around the potential fallout from even a temporary default on US Treasuries. Despite the recent failure of First Republic and …
18th May 2023
Improved economic fundamentals outside the US have coincided with the dollar’s sharp fall since last September, narrowing the greenback’s substantial overvaluation. But we still think that it remains somewhat stronger than warranted by fundamentals. …
6th April 2023
Even after the US dollar’s recent pullback, we estimate that the greenback is now more overvalued than it was at its last peak in the early 2000s. (See Chart 1.) This suggests to us that the dollar is set to weaken against most currencies over the …
28th October 2022
As the recent breakdown of the UK Gilt market illustrates, policymakers face an increasingly difficult trade-off between combating inflation, supporting economic growth and maintaining financial stability. With core bond and currency markets facing very …
26th October 2022
We estimate that, in aggregate, the US dollar has become more overvalued over the past few months. (See Chart 1.) In our view, this is because fundamentals in the US relative to other major economies have not improved to the same extent that the greenback …
29th July 2022
So far, the sell-off across bond and equity markets this year has not triggered major signs of systemic risk. If that were to change, central banks would probably have to step in to prevent a destabilising cycle of panic selling and money market distress …
20th May 2022
We estimate that, on balance, the US dollar’s “fair value” has risen alongside an appreciation of the greenback against most major currencies. This increase in fair value largely reflects the relative strength of the economic recovery in the US as well as …
25th March 2022
While Russia’s financial markets have unravelled since the country’s invasion of Ukraine, global markets have so far held up relatively well. But the mood seems to have turned a bit in recent days, and there are now some early signs of financial stress …
3rd March 2022
The recent rally in the US dollar has been driven by strong economic fundamentals in the US relative to other major economies and a favourable shift in yield differentials, leaving the greenback only a bit above our estimates of “fair” value. We expect …
17th December 2021
