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Our Interactive Markets Chart Pack gives you a comprehensive and timely view of the latest developments in financial markets, and how we expect them to perform in 2025 and beyond. The Chart Pack can be downloaded in PDF form using the Download button on …
13th March 2025
Weaker-than-expected US data and a dovish shift from the FOMC have led to a sharp fall in interest rate expectations in the US, driving the dollar down as the market turmoil at the start of August has largely unwound. The yen has continued to rally, as …
30th August 2024
The US dollar has remained rangebound against most other major currencies in July, even as expected interest rates have fallen sharply in the US in the wake of softer inflation and employment data. That reflects falling interest rate expectations …
2nd August 2024
The US dollar has fallen back across the board in May as expected interest rate differentials have shifted against the US vis-à-vis many other economies, and risk sentiment has recovered. Overall, the greenback remains caught in something of a crosswind. …
31st May 2024
The US dollar has made further gains against most major currencies over the past month or so. Interest rate expectations have continued to pick up in the US and in most places outside Asia, weighing particularly on that region's currencies (prompting …
30th April 2024
The US dollar has made further gains against most major currencies over the past month or so. Interest rate expectations have edged higher in the US and in most places outside Asia, weighing particularly on that region's currencies. While we no longer …
28th February 2024
After its sharp fall at the end of 2023, the US dollar has risen against most major currencies so far this year. Interest rate expectations have rebounded a bit in the US and in most places outside Asia, weighing particularly on the region's currencies. …
30th January 2024
This is a special Global Economics Chart Pack that provides clients with key analysis to make sense of the macro and market impact of the disruptions to maritime shipping. The charts in this document come from our brand-new shipping dashboard , which …
25th January 2024
Despite a rebound over recent days, the dollar fell sharply in November and, in aggregate, is now roughly flat on the year as a whole. With interest rate expectations shifting down decisively in the US and most other major economies, we expect the rebound …
30th November 2023
The dollar stayed strong in October but failed to add much to its broad-based rally since July. We think elevated US yields are likely to keep the greenback on the front foot, particularly if risk sentiment continues to deteriorate. However, while we …
31st October 2023
The dollar has rebounded in August but remains broadly unchanged on the year so far. We continue to think that it (and the yen) will rally over the second half of the year as the long-anticipated recessions finally take hold in the US and other advanced …
31st August 2023
FX Markets Chart Pack (Jul. 2023) …
31st July 2023
The US dollar has rebounded in recent weeks as resilient US economic data and renewed hawkish noises from the FOMC have revived the “higher for longer” narrative, shifting relative interest rate expectations back in favour of the US. There is probably …
31st May 2023
The US dollar has weakened again over the past month or so, leaving it only somewhat higher in trade-weighted terms since the start of its rally at the start of 2022. In other words, the greenback has nearly reversed all of its gains from the Fed …
26th April 2023
Stronger-than-expected data out of the US have pushed up US yields more than elsewhere and drove the greenback higher against most currencies for the first time since its cyclical peak in October of last year. While US economic resilience may keep the …
23rd February 2023
Optimism around China’s rapid re-opening and stronger-than-expected data out of Europe have put continued pressure on the US dollar over the past month or so. In turn, we have revised down our forecasts for the greenback against major currencies. But we …
26th January 2023
The dollar has stabilised over the past month after its sharp fall in November, and we continue to think that a slowing global economy and worsening risk sentiment will lead to another (possibly final) leg up in the dollar over the first half of 2023. …
21st December 2022
Renewed optimism in global markets – in large part tied to hopes for a Fed “pivot” – pushed the US dollar down against most major currencies last month. But with a global recession on the horizon, we continue to think that the dollar rally will resume …
1st December 2022
While the dollar has dropped back sharply over the past week, we continue to think that its rally has further to run as the global economy slows further and safe-haven demand intensifies. After a strong run since the middle of August, during which the …
4th October 2022
While the euro, sterling, and most other European currencies have already fallen significantly against the dollar over the past year or so, we now expect them to weaken further over the next twelve months as the economic slowdown and the terms of …
1st September 2022
While the strength of the US dollar already reflects expectations that the Fed will continue its aggressive policy tightening, we think that disappointing global growth and weak risk sentiment will underpin further strength in the greenback this year. …
30th June 2022
While the US dollar has fallen back over the past couple of weeks after a strong run, we think that the key underlying drivers of the greenback’s appreciation this year remain in place. Although there has been a small rebound this week, the past month or …
27th May 2022
The rally in the dollar seems to have paused this month, and indeed the greenback has fallen against some major currencies – especially those in Europe – this month. We think this largely reflects the rebound in risk sentiment, the stabilisation of …
31st March 2022
The dollar has generally strengthened since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, while European currencies have generally been the hardest hit by the war. But unlike in most risk-off episodes, the currencies of commodity exporters have benefitted from a spike in …
4th March 2022
While the dollar has not made much further headway this month, despite the Fed’s hawkish message at its latest policy meeting, we think the key underlying drivers of the greenback’s rally – the relative strength of the US recovery and the Fed’s shift …
17th December 2021
The dollar has risen to its strongest level in more than a year and, though it is not our central forecast, we think the risk of a more sustained dollar bull market is increasing. The incoming economic data – in particular, continued well-above-target …
19th November 2021
The US dollar has rallied to its strongest level since November 2020, and we think it will remain strong on the back of the Fed’s hawkish shift and ongoing uncertainty around the global recovery. While it has fallen back a little this week, on a …
11th October 2021
We think that the US dollar will continue to trend higher through the end of this year as commodity prices fall further and long-term government bond yields increase by more in the US than elsewhere. Over the past month, the dollar has had the largest …
27th August 2021
We continue to think that the US dollar will rise further in the second half of the year as the divergence between the US and other major economies in terms of growth and, especially, inflation persists. The US dollar’s initial sharp rise after the June …
27th July 2021
The sharp rise in the US dollar following last week’s FOMC meeting reinforces our view that the greenback will appreciate further against most currencies this year. After a period of remarkable stability, the US dollar rose sharply after the June FOMC …
24th June 2021
