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Germany’s industrial orders for April are likely to have slumped (07.00 BST) US non-farm payrolls probably fell by 9 million in May (13.30 BST) We think that inflation in Russia picked up a bit, but remained below target (14.00 BST) Key Market Themes The …
4th June 2020
We think the ECB will expand its asset purchases under the PEPP (12.45 BST) US jobless claims figures could point to the labour market turning a corner (13.30 BST) Deflation in Switzerland probably deepened in May (07.30 BST) Key Market Themes The …
3rd June 2020
We think that the euro-zone’s unemployment rate jumped in April, despite retention schemes Bank of Canada may announce an expansion to its corporate bond purchases (15.00 BST) US ISM non-manufacturing index likely to have bounced back only slightly in May …
2nd June 2020
May PMIs likely to show activity is recovering in most economies, albeit slowly (Mon.-Wed.) We expect the ECB to agree a further €500bn of asset purchases and an extension of the PEPP US non-farm payrolls may have fallen by a further 9 million in May …
29th May 2020
We think US real personal spending fell by about 14% m/m in April (13.30 BST) We expect euro-zone headline inflation to have held steady at 0.3% in May (10.00 BST) Japan’s unemployment rate is likely to have risen from 2.5% to 2.8% in April (00.30 BST) …
28th May 2020
The EC’s economic sentiment indicator probably rebounded in May (10.00 BST) We think that policymakers in Poland and Korea will cut their policy rates further US initial jobless claims may have declined to around 2 million last week (13.30 BST) Key Market …
27th May 2020
European Commission set to publish its proposal for an EU joint fiscal stimulus package The central bank of Korea may launch quantitative easing (Thursday) We think economic sentiment in the US and the euro-zone started to recover in May Key Market Themes …
22nd May 2020
China’s National People’s Congress set to announce 2020 economic targets We think UK retail sales contracted by 30% m/m (07.00 BST) Japan’s headline inflation probably fell to 0.0% in April (00.30 BST) Key Market Themes A lot has been made of the …
21st May 2020
FOMC meeting minutes to provide further insight into the Fed’s crisis response (19.00 BST) Flash PMIs may indicate what effect the gradual easing of lockdown measures is having We think that Turkey’s central bank will cut rates by a further 50bp (12.00 …
20th May 2020
China’s one-year loan prime rate likely to be lowered by 10bp, to 3.75% (02.30 BST) Euro-zone consumer confidence probably remained depressed in May (15.00 BST) We think UK headline inflation fell below 1% in April (07.00 BST) Key Market Themes While the …
19th May 2020
Fed Chair Powell to speak before the Senate and in a virtual “Fed Listens” event UK public finances data may give an early indication of the fiscal cost of the pandemic We think that central banks in Turkey, South Africa and Thailand will cut rates …
15th May 2020
US industrial production and retail sales probably fell by 10-15% m/m in April In contrast, both IP and retail sales are likely to have recovered further in China (03.00 BST) We think Germany’s GDP contracted by 2% q/q in the first quarter (07.00 BST) Key …
14th May 2020
US initial jobless claims data likely to highlight that unemployment is still rising (13.30 BST) We expect the central bank of Mexico to cut its policy rate by 100bp to 5.0% (19.00 BST) Australia’s unemployment rate is likely to have risen from 5.2% to …
13th May 2020
UK Government is providing further details on its roadmap for reopening the economy We think that headline consumer price inflation fell sharply in both the US and China in April India’s industrial production is likely to have slumped in March (13.00 BST) …
11th May 2020
We think US non-farm payrolls fell by a record 22.5 million in April (13.30 BST) We expect the central bank of Mexico to cut it policy rate by 100bp to 5.0% (Thursday 14 th ) German GDP is likely to have contracted by 2.0% q/q in Q1 (Friday 15 th ) Key …
7th May 2020
We think US initial jobless declined further last week (13.30 BST) The Bank of England may extend its QE programme (12.00 BST) We expect China’s exports to have fallen by 15% y/y in April Key Market Themes A lot has been made of the divergence between the …
6th May 2020
Brazil’s central bank is likely to cut its policy rate by 50bp, to 3.25% We think that euro-zone retail sales slumped at a double-digit pace in March (10.00 BST) US ADP employment probably dropped by more than 20 million in April (14.15 BST) Key Market …
5th May 2020
After slashing rates to 0.25% and launching QE in March, the RBA will probably stand pat Inflation in Switzerland is likely to have fallen further into negative territory in April We think that the US ISM non-manufacturing index plunged to a record low of …
4th May 2020
We think US non-farm payrolls fell by a record 20-25 million in April (Friday) April PMIs are likely to confirm that lockdowns are weighing heavily on activity (Wednesday) We expect the central bank of Brazil to cut the Selic rate by 50bp to 3.25% …
1st May 2020
ECB unveils more generous TLTRO terms, but will not increase its asset purchases yet Colombia’s central bank likely to cut its policy rate by 50bp, to 3.25%, later on Thursday The US ISM manufacturing index probably plunged in April (Friday, 15.00 BST) …
30th April 2020
Fed may hint at scope to expand support programmes if needed (19.00 BST) China’s official PMIs likely to point to continued recovery in the economy (02.00 BST) We think that the ECB will increase the size of its PEPP to put a lid on peripheral bond …
29th April 2020
Euro-zone economic sentiment indicator probably slumped in April (10.00 BST) We think that US GDP contracted by about 3.5% annualised in Q1 (13.30 BST) Fed may hint at scope to expand support programmes if needed (19.00 BST) Key Market Themes Earnings …
28th April 2020
We expect the BoJ to cut its policy rate by 10bp, to -0.20% (Tuesday) ECB likely to expand its asset purchases, while the Fed and Riksbank leave policy unchanged China’s official PMIs will probably point to further recovery, but at a slow pace (Thursday) …
24th April 2020
Ifo’s Business Climate Indicator for Germany is all but certain to have plunged in April We expect Russia’s central bank to cut its policy rate by 50bp (11.30 BST) US durable goods orders may have dropped by 15% m/m in March (13.30 BST) Key Market Themes …
23rd April 2020
Flash PMIs likely to show that economic activity in DMs weakened even further in April US initial jobless claims probably remained extremely high last week (13.30 BST) We think that Korean GDP fell by about 3.0% q/q in the first quarter (00.00 BST) Key …
22nd April 2020
UK inflation probably dipped in March (07.00 BST) Turkey’s central bank likely to cut rates by 100bp, to 8.75% (12.00 BST) We think consumer confidence in the euro-zone fell even further in April (15.00 BST) Key Market Themes While the widening of the …
21st April 2020
Higher risk of default in Argentina after bondholders reject debt restructuring proposal We forecast that exports in Korea dropped by 25% in the first 20 days of April Germany’s ZEW economic sentiment index probably fell further this month (10.00 BST) Key …
20th April 2020
We expect China’s official GDP to contract in Q1, for the first time in 40 years (03.00 BST) In the US, Congress is set to negotiate an extension to the SBA’s small-business loan program The UK shutdown will probably be extended until 7 th May Key Market …
16th April 2020
PBOC ramps up its monetary stimulus, and more rate cuts are on the cards US initial jobless claims will probably come in only a bit lower than the last reading UK government likely to extend lockdown to 7 th May Key Market Themes Emerging market …
15th April 2020
We think that US retail sales and industrial production fell sharply in March Korea’s Democratic Party expected to win most seats in Wednesday’s parliamentary election The Bank of Canada may add corporate bonds to its asset purchases (15.00 BST) Key …
14th April 2020
US retail sales and industrial production to show how hard consumer spending has been hit We expect central banks in Indonesia and Peru to cut rates (Tue. & Fri.) China’s GDP may have fallen by as much as 16% y/y in Q1 (Fri.) Key Market Themes We have …
9th April 2020
Congress is reportedly considering expanding support to small businesses US consumer confidence index likely to show its biggest ever fall in April (15.00 BST) We expect Korea’s central bank to cut its policy rate to an all-time low of 0.50% Key Market …
8th April 2020
Eurogroup seems set to agree a joint fiscal response to the coronavirus crisis We expect the Polish central bank to cut its policy rate by 50bp to 0.50% We think Norway’s headline inflation fell from 0.9% to about 0.6% in March (09.00 BST) Key Market …
7th April 2020
Eurogroup set to discuss the use of the ESM in response to the coronavirus crisis We expect the RBA to keep its policy rate unchanged at 0.25% (05.30 BST) Mexico’s headline inflation likely to have fallen from 3.7% to 3.5% in March (12.00 BST) Key Market …
6th April 2020
US initial claims data likely to point to another 5 million job losses this week (Thursday) We think that US consumer confidence dropped to levels last seen during the GFC (Thursday) Interest rates likely to be cut in Korea and Poland, but left unchanged …
3rd April 2020
PMIs in the euro-zone and the UK likely to be revised down from their flash estimates US non-farm payrolls unlikely to capture much of the hit to employment from coronavirus ISM non-manufacturing index could prove a more useful gauge of the effect on US …
2nd April 2020
US initial jobless claim may have surged to 5 million last week (13.30 GMT) India’s manufacturing PMI probably plunged in March (05.00 GMT) We expect Egypt’s central bank to cut its deposit rate by 100bp (18.00 GMT) Key Market Themes Although both …
1st April 2020
China’s Caixin manufacturing PMI probably rebounded in March (01.45 GMT) ADP employment data to give more insight on the state of the US labour market (13.15 GMT) We expect a sharp fall in the US ISM manufacturing index in March (15.00 GMT) Key Market …
31st March 2020
China’s PMIs are likely to show that activity started to recover in March (01.00 GMT) Germany’s unemployment rate probably rose to a 20-month high of 5.2% in March (8.55 GMT) We expect the central bank of Chile to lower its policy rate by 50bp to 0.5% …
30th March 2020
Track the spread of COVID-19 and its economic impact on our dedicated page here We think that manufacturing output recovered in China in March, but plunged elsewhere Huge policy response won’t prevent economic activity from falling sharply in Q2 Key …
27th March 2020
ECB will not be bound by issuer limits in its Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme EU leaders to hold press conference on joint fiscal response to the crisis later on Thursday US $2tn coronavirus relief bill likely to be passed by the House on Friday Key …
26th March 2020
EU leaders set to discuss the use of “corona bonds” to fund the fiscal response to COVID-19 Singapore’s advanced estimate of Q1 GDP is likely to show a slump in activity (00.00 GMT) We expect the Czech central bank to cut its policy rate by 75bp to 1.00% …
25th March 2020
Track the spread of COVID-19 and its economic impact on our dedicated page here Flash PMIs should show the huge scale of the economic damage caused by the outbreak More central banks likely to loosen monetary policy after Fed announces raft of new …
23rd March 2020
Many central banks have eased policy further, and more loosening appears to be on the cards We think that China’s 1-Year Loan Prime Rate fell by another 10bps this month (01.30 GMT) US senators to release details of stimulus plan to fight the coronavirus …
19th March 2020
Despite their latest fiscal measures, we think that euro-zone policymakers need to do more US data for March may show early signs of the economic hit from the virus (12.30 GMT) Switzerland’s central bank is likely to cut its policy rate by 25bp to -1.00% …
18th March 2020
More central banks to join the Fed in loosening monetary policy You can track the spread of COVID-19 and its impact on our dedicated page here US NAHB homebuilder confidence index should give some idea of the hit to housing activity Key Market Themes The …
16th March 2020
FOMC likely to cut rates by 50bp, but 100bp possible (Wednesday) We think that the Bank of Japan will cut its deposit rate to minus 0.2% (Thursday) A fall in the real means Brazil’s central bank is likely to stand pat (Wednesday) Key Market Themes …
13th March 2020
Global markets rout deepens as fears over the economic impact of pandemic mount The UK is expected to move from a “contain” to a “delay” strategy for countering COVID-19 University of Michigan survey to show how the virus is weighing on US consumer …
12th March 2020
We expect the ECB to announce new stimulus, including a 10bp rate cut (12.45 GMT) India’s CPI inflation is likely to have dropped sharply in February (12.30 GMT) Peru’s central bank will probably lower its policy rate to 2% (23.20 GMT) Key Market Themes …
11th March 2020
Financial market meltdown raises the probability of more Fed easing before long … … but falls in MXN and RUB have all but removed the possibility of cuts in Mexico and Russia See our dedicated page for all the latest on the coronavirus outbreak Key Market …
9th March 2020
