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Chinese activity data will reveal a sharp slowdown in March … (Mon.) … which reinforces our view that the PBOC will cut the Loan Prime Rate (Wed.) Register for our Drop-In on the key implications of the French election here Key Market Themes While the ECB …
14th April 2022
We expect Korea’s central bank to hike its policy rate by 25bp (02.00 BST) Australia’s unemployment rate may have fallen to a multi-decade low in March (02.30 BST) We think the ECB will leave policy unchanged tomorrow (12.45 BST) Key Market Themes While …
13th April 2022
We expect an above-consensus 50bp rate hike in New Zealand (03.00 BST) UK inflation probably rose even further last month (07.00 BST) Canada’s central bank may also raise rates by 50bp (15.00 BST) Key Market Themes While we think US inflation peaked in …
12th April 2022
We think the UK unemployment rate remained at 3.9% in February (07.00 BST) We forecast US CPI inflation reached a new high of 8.4% in March (13.30 BST) Sign-up for our Drop-In on global inflation here Key Market Themes Even if the US earnings season – …
11th April 2022
US CPI inflation looks set to have hit a new high in March, but this could be the peak (Tue.) We expect rate hikes in Canada, Korea, New Zealand and Israel next week... ... but think China’s central bank may announce an unscheduled rate cut Key Market …
8th April 2022
We expect India’s central bank to leave rates on hold for now (05.30 BST) We think CPI inflation rose slightly in Brazil and Chile last month... ... while it may have reached nearly 20% in Russia (17.00 BST) Key Market Themes While the gold price has been …
7th April 2022
Euro-zone retail sales probably rose slightly in February (10.00 BST) We think Mexico’s inflation rose further in March, paving the way for a rate hike (12.00 BST) Canada’s federal budget may unveil a small increase in spending Key Market Themes We think …
6th April 2022
FOMC minutes may provide a clearer steer on plans for balance sheet reduction (19.00 BST) We expect Poland’s central bank to hike its policy rate by 75bp Sign up for our Drop-In on the global inflation outlook here Key Market Themes The recent polling …
5th April 2022
We expect Australia’s central bank to keep its policy rate at 0.1% (05.30 BST) The US trade deficit is likely to have narrowed in February... (13.30 BST) ...while the ISM services index may have rebounded in March (15.00 BST) Key Market Themes Although …
4th April 2022
FOMC minutes may shed more light on the Fed’s plans to shrink its balance sheet (Wednesday) We think the Reserve Bank of Australia will keep its policy settings unchanged… (Tuesday) …whereas central banks in Poland, Romania and Peru will probably hike …
1st April 2022
Euro-zone inflation probably rose to around 7.5% in March (10.00 BST) We anticipate a headline rise in US payrolls of 450,000… (13.30 BST) …and expect the ISM manufacturing index to have rebounded (15.00 BST) Key Market Themes We think China ’s stock …
31st March 2022
China’s official manufacturing PMI may have fallen below 50 this month (02.30 BST) We think euro-zone unemployment declined to a record low in February (09.30 BST) Clients can now view our US Recession Trackers here Key Market Themes While the sell-off in …
30th March 2022
The Bank of Thailand will probably stand pat, despite higher inflation (08.00 BST) We suspect business confidence in the euro-zone has fallen sharply this month (10.00 BST) Sign-up for our Drop-In on how the war is affecting the euro-zone economy here Key …
29th March 2022
We think retail sales in Australia rebounded strongly in February (01.30 BST) Consumer confidence in the US probably fell further this month (15.00 BST) We expect Chile’s central bank to deliver another 150bp rate hike (22.00 BST) Key Market Themes Even …
28th March 2022
Virus restrictions probably caused China’s PMIs to drop back in March (Thursday) We suspect that US non-farm payrolls rose by 450,000 this month (Friday) Headline inflation in the euro-zone may have picked up to 6.7% in March (Friday) Key Market Themes …
25th March 2022
We think Mexico’s central bank will hike its policy rate by 75bp (19.00 GMT) The rising cost of living probably weighed on UK retail sales in February (07.00 GMT) Clients can view our new China Activity Proxy dashboard here Key Market Themes While not our …
24th March 2022
We expect Norway’s central bank to raise its policy rate by 25bp… (09.00 GMT) …and anticipate a 75bp hike from Mexico’s central bank (19.00 GMT) Clients can view our new China Activity Proxy dashboard here Key Market Themes The yield of 10-year Gilts …
23rd March 2022
Hopes for a large support package from UK Chancellor Sunak may be disappointed… …even though inflation in the UK probably reached a 30-year high last month (07.00 GMT) Sign up for our Drop-In on the impact of war in Ukraine on commodity markets here Key …
22nd March 2022
We expect Hungary’s central bank to raise its base rate by 75bp (13.00 GMT) Read our latest research on the macro and market impacts of the war in Ukraine here Clients can view our new Oil Market Monitor dashboard here Key Market Themes The post-FOMC …
21st March 2022
Flash PMIs for March to give first steer on how the war in Ukraine has impacted DM economies UK chancellor may announce a small support package for households in the spring statement We expect Mexico’s central bank to raise its policy rate by 75bp on …
18th March 2022
Bank of Japan may push back against speculation about policy tightening We suspect that Russia’s central bank will stand pat (10.30 GMT) Strong growth in Q4 may be as good as it gets for Chile’s economy (11.30 GMT) Key Market Themes The pound gave back …
17th March 2022
The Fed is widely expected to begin its tightening cycle (18.00 GMT) We think the BoE will continue its own hiking cycle with another 25bp rate rise (12.00 GMT) US industrial production data may show output rose fairly strongly in February (13.15 GMT) Key …
16th March 2022
We think that US retail sales rebounded in February (12.30 GMT) The Fed is widely expected to deliver its first rate hike of this cycle (18.00 GMT) Brazil’s central bank may hike its policy rate by another 100bp (21.30 GMT) Key Market Themes With several …
15th March 2022
We expect the PBOC to cut its Medium-term Lending Facility Rate by 10bp We think unemployment in the UK continued to edge lower in January (07.00 GMT) Producer price inflation in the US probably remained elevated last month (12.30 GMT) Key Market Themes …
14th March 2022
We expect the Fed and the BoE to raise their policy rates by 25bp… (Wed. & Thu.) … and Brazil’s central bank to hike interest rates by 100bp, to 11.75% (Wed.) In contrast, policymakers in Japan, Russia and Turkey will probably leave rates unchanged Key …
11th March 2022
We think UK GDP will have reversed all of December’s drop in January (07.00 GMT) Higher oil prices probably weighed on US consumer confidence this month (15.00 GMT) Clients can view our new Oil Market Monitor dashboard here Key Market Themes While the ECB …
10th March 2022
We estimate that US headline inflation reached 7.7% last month (13.30 GMT) Lagarde will probably try to strike a reassuring tone after tomorrow’s ECB meeting Korea’s presidential election too close to call ahead of final results tomorrow morning Key …
9th March 2022
Consumer price inflation in China probably remained subdued last month (01.30 GMT) … … while we think headline inflation in Mexico rose to almost 8% (12.00 GMT) Clients can view our new Oil Market Monitor dashboard here Key Market Themes We doubt that …
8th March 2022
We expect a 50bp rate hike in Poland, but there is a risk of a larger increase Clients can view our new Oil Market Monitor dashboard here Read our latest research on the economic impact of the war in Ukraine here Key Market Themes History suggests that …
7th March 2022
China’s FX reserves data may reveal PBOC intervention (Mon.) We think the Russia-Ukraine war will mean the ECB delays its plans to normalise policy (Thu.) Core consumer prices in the US may have risen by less in February than January (Thu.) Key Market …
4th March 2022
Omicron outbreak probably weighed on euro-zone retail sales in January (10.00 GMT) We think US non-farm payrolls rose by 600,000 last month (13.30 GMT) Read our latest research on the economic impact of the war in Ukraine here Key Market Themes So far, …
3rd March 2022
We think Euro-zone unemployment fell to its lowest recorded level in January (10.00 GMT) The US ISM services index probably declined further in February (15.00 GMT) Read our latest research on the economic impact of the war in Ukraine here Key Market …
2nd March 2022
Euro-zone inflation may have risen to almost 6% in February (10.00 GMT) We expect the Bank of Canada to hike rates by 25bp and begin QT (15.00 GMT) Read our latest reports on the Russia-Ukraine crisis here Key Market Themes While the war in Ukraine has …
1st March 2022
Inflation may have reached 5.5% in Germany in January (13.00 GMT) The US ISM Manufacturing Index probably fell back a bit this month (15.00 GMT) Read our latest reports on the Russia-Ukraine crisis here Key Market Themes Aside from Russia , most major …
28th February 2022
We expect the Bank of Canada to kick off its tightening cycle next week (Wednesday) Fading of Omicron virus wave probably boosted US non-farm payrolls in February (Friday) Read our latest reports on the Russia-Ukraine crisis here Key Market Themes After a …
25th February 2022
President Biden is expected to announce new sanctions on Russia later on Thursday You can watch a recording of our latest Drop-In event on Russia-Ukraine developments here Also see here for all of our reports on the economic and market implications of the …
24th February 2022
Raft of speeches by Fed officials may shed more light on the likely size of the first rate hike We think Mexico’s headline inflation edged down to 7.0% in mid-February (12.00 GMT) Read our latest reports on the Russia-Ukraine crisis here , and sign up for …
23rd February 2022
We expect New Zealand’s central bank to raise its policy rate by 25bp (02.00 GMT) Sign up to hear our take on South Africa’s upcoming budget here Read our latest reports on the Russia-Ukraine crisis here Key Market Themes While continued escalation of …
22nd February 2022
The German IfO Survey is likely to show continued price pressures (09.00 GMT) We expect Hungary’s central bank to raise its base rate by 50bp (13.00 GMT) Read our latest reports on the Russia-Ukraine crisis here Key Market Themes We doubt that the rise in …
21st February 2022
We think that policymakers in New Zealand will hike interest rates by another 25bp … (Wed.) … but Korea’s central bank is likely to pause its tightening cycle (Thu.) Read our latest reports on the Russia-Ukraine crisis here Key Market Themes While …
18th February 2022
UK retail sales probably rebounded in January as the Omicron wave eased (07.00 GMT) We think Sweden’s CPIF inflation dropped back last month (07.00 GMT) Read our latest reports on the Russia-Ukraine crisis here Key Market Themes While investors have now …
17th February 2022
FOMC minutes later on Wednesday may provide clues on the pace of rate hikes (19.00 GMT) The recovery in Australia’s labour market may have stalled in January (01.30 GMT) We think Turkey’s central bank will leave rates on hold on Thursday (11.00 GMT) Key …
16th February 2022
We think that Chinese consumer price inflation dropped back in January … (01.30 GMT) … but headline inflation in the UK and Canada probably held steady We expect US retail sales rebounded fairly strongly last month (13.30 GMT) Key Market Themes We expect …
15th February 2022
We expect the PBOC to cut its Medium-term Lending Facility rate by 10bp Employment in the UK probably fell by 75,000 in December (07.00 GMT) We think that Q4 GDP in Japan rebounded by 1.8% q/q (23.50 GMT) Key Market Themes Two unfamiliar and (largely) …
14th February 2022
Fed minutes may shed more light on the likelihood of a 50bp rate hike in March (Wednesday) We think the UK labour market remained tight in December (Tuesday) We expect the PBOC to cut the rate on its medium-term lending facility by 10bp (Monday) Key …
11th February 2022
The Omicron outbreak probably weighed on UK GDP in December (07.00 GMT) We think Russia’s central bank will hike interest rates by 100bp, to 9.5% (10.30 GMT) We expect US consumer confidence to have ticked up in early February (15.00 GMT) Key Market …
10th February 2022
US headline inflation probably remained above 7% in January (13.30 GMT) We expect central banks in Mexico and Peru to hike their policy rates by a further 50bp… … and the Reserve Bank of India to raise its revere repo rate by 15bp to 3.5% (04.30 GMT) Key …
9th February 2022
Romania’s central bank may raise its policy rate by 25bp, to 2.25% We expect Thailand’s central bank to stand pat throughout 2022 (07.00 GMT) Brazil’s inflation probably rose further last month (12.00 GMT) Key Market Themes Despite recent increases, we …
8th February 2022
We expect Poland’s central bank to raise its policy rate by 50bp to 2.75% We think that the US trade deficit widened in December (13.30 GMT) Find our macro forecasts in our latest Global Economic Outlook here Key Market Themes We don’t think government …
7th February 2022
China’s FX data could provide clues on PBOC exchange rate intervention (Mon.) US CPI inflation may have been close to its peak in January (Thu.) We expect rate hikes in Russia, Mexico, Poland and Romania next week Key Market Themes Today’s …
4th February 2022
