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While there could still be more twists and turns to come after this week’s elections in the US, in general we expect equities there to outperform Treasuries between voting day and the end of 2022. The S&P 500 has risen significantly since voting day, even …
6th November 2020
US presidential election hinges on outstanding results in a few key states We doubt that the Fed will announce any major policy changes (19.00 GMT) … … but expect the Bank of England to expand QE, with more to come in 2021 (12.00 GMT) Key Market Themes …
4th November 2020
While the final results are yet to be determined, whoever wins the US presidency probably faces continued gridlock in Congress. That may explain why the moves in markets overall so far have been limited. Admittedly, Treasury yields have fallen as the …
We think that energy commodities will claw back a bit of the ground that they have lost relative to industrial metals over the next two years or so, as some cyclical factors linked to COVID-19 which have weighed more heavily on the former unwind. However, …
3rd November 2020
We think that composite PMIs in Spain and Italy fell in October (08.15 & 08.45 GMT) We expect the ISM Services Index to have remained strong in October (15.00 GMT) The results of the US elections are expected on Wednesday Key Market Themes Unlike after …
Democrats lead in the polls ahead of Tuesday’s vote Central banks of Australia and Malaysia both likely to provide more policy support Switzerland’s inflation probably remained negative in October (07.30 GMT) Key Market Themes Treasury yields may rise …
2nd November 2020
Euro-zone Q3 GDP figures already old news with the risk of another contraction in Q4 rising US personal income likely to have edged lower as fiscal transfers lessened (12:30 GMT) Hong Kong’s economy probably returned to growth for the first time in a year …
29th October 2020
France and Germany to announce further restrictions to activity US GDP probably rose by 30% annualised in Q3, but recovery likely to have slowed since We think that the ECB will signal that more monetary stimulus is coming (12.45 GMT) Key Market Themes …
28th October 2020
We expect TIPS to continue to perform quite well, and better than conventional Treasuries, in the next few years. But we see a risk of higher inflation thereafter. That would, however, probably only cause TIPS to perform poorly, even if not as badly as …
South Africa’s inflation probably still near the bottom of central bank target range (09.00 BST) Bank of Canada likely to sound dovish, may outline options if outlook worsens (14.00 BST) Brazil’s central bank will probably keep policy rate at record low …
27th October 2020
We think that MSCI’s indices of emerging market (EM) equities in Latin America and EMEA will reverse some of their recent underperformance relative to the MSCI EM Asia index over the next few years, just as they did following their sharp falls during the …
26th October 2020
External demand probably helped Korea’s economy to rebound in Q3 (Mon., 22.00 GMT) We suspect that US durable goods orders dropped back in September (Tue., 12.30 GMT) Track the spread of COVID-19 and its impact on economies and markets here Key Market …
US GDP probably rebounded strongly in Q3 (Thursday) We think that the ECB will provide further support for the euro-zone economy (Thursday) China’s leaders will meet to discuss the next Five-Year Plan in the coming week Key Market Themes The fact that …
23rd October 2020
We expect that Turkey’s central bank will its policy rates on hold (12.00 BST) Surge in COVID-19 cases may have weighed on euro-zone consumer confidence (15.00 BST) US Presidential election in focus as Trump and Biden face off in a final debate Key Market …
21st October 2020
We expect Korean trade data to show continued strong demand for electronics (01:00 BST) We think that UK inflation picked up in September (07:00 BST) Canadian retail sales growth probably accelerated a bit in August (13:30 BST) Key Market Themes The past …
20th October 2020
We forecast that the returns from equities will beat those from government bonds in the world after COVID-19. However, we expect the outperformance of large-cap equities in the US to end. We have written extensively on our macroeconomic services about the …
The loan prime rate in China is likely to remain unchanged at 3.85% (09.30 BST) We expect Hungary’s central bank to leave its base policy rate on hold (13.00 BST) Track the spread of COVID-19 and its economic and market impact here Key Market Themes We …
19th October 2020
Activity data likely to highlight the strength of China’s economic recovery (Mon.) Biden and Trump set to face each other in final Presidential debate (Thu.) October PMIs to shed light on the economic impact of the rise in virus cases in Europe (Fri.) Key …
16th October 2020
Outlook for UK and euro-zone economies worsens as new restrictions are put in place Euro-zone inflation data to shed some light on core rate fall in September (10.00 BST) US retail sales & industrial production likely to confirm that the pace of activity …
15th October 2020
A renewed rise in longer-dated Treasury yields in response to growing expectations of a large US post-election fiscal stimulus would test the Fed’s resolve to keep monetary conditions extremely loose. We suspect that it would want to keep those yields …
We expect consumer prices in China fell due to lower food prices (02.30 BST) US jobless claims likely to show elevated level of layoffs (13.30 BST) Track the spread of COVID-19 and its economic and market impact here Key Market Themes While the S&P 500 is …
14th October 2020
We think that Singapore’s GDP rebounded strongly in Q3 (01.00 BST) Bank of Korea unlikely to change policy, with second COVID-19 wave fading (02.00 BST) Euro-zone industrial production probably edged up in August (10.00 BST) Key Market Themes Although the …
13th October 2020
We think that China’s trade surplus grew in September (Tuesday) US CPI inflation probably rose in September (Tuesday) US retail sales and industrial production likely to have recovered further last month (Friday) Key Market Themes Investors’ recent …
9th October 2020
We think that UK GDP rose by about 5.0% m/m in August (07.00 BST) Canada’s unemployment rate probably fell below 10% in September (13.30 BST) Brazil’s headline inflation likely to have risen to around 3.2% last month (13.00 BST) Key Market Themes EM Asia …
8th October 2020
Our current views of many assets and the US dollar are influenced by our forecast that the yields of conventional Treasuries will remain firmly anchored, even as expected inflation increases. We are sticking to that forecast for now, despite this week’s …
7th October 2020
Industrial production in Germany probably increased in August (07.00 BST) The Fed’s September minutes may clarify its forward guidance (19.00 BST) We expect Poland’s central bank to leave its policy rate on hold Key Market Themes If the recent rise in the …
6th October 2020
We expect a surprise rate cut from Australia’s central bank to 0.10% (01.30 BST) The US trade deficit probably grew in August (13.30 BST) Russia’s inflation may have ticked up in September (17.00 BST) Key Market Themes The resilience of the US stock …
5th October 2020
The market movements of recent weeks are a timely reminder of the importance of the main near-term risks – coronavirus cases rising in major economies as winter approaches, and uncertainty about the forthcoming US election. Both could continue to weigh on …
2nd October 2020
We expect the RBA to cut its policy rate and launch a second round of QE (Tuesday) The US trade deficit probably widened further (Tuesday) We think that UK GDP rose by around 5.0% in August (Friday) Key Market Themes The negative reaction in equity …
Euro-zone core inflation probably fell in September (11:00 BST) Brazil’s industrial production data likely to show the country’s recovery is slowing (13:00 BST) We think that US non-farm payrolls rose by about 800,000 in September (13:30 BST) Key Market …
1st October 2020
PMIs likely to show that most major economies continued to recover in September … … but rising case numbers in parts of Europe pose a threat to the economic outlook there We expect the Philippines’ central bank to resume its easing cycle after a pause …
30th September 2020
We expect GDP data to highlight the resilience of Vietnam’s economy this year (03.00 BST) UK consumer credit probably grew strongly in August, but that may not last (09.30 BST) Euro-zone economic sentiment indicator likely to have risen further in …
28th September 2020
The fallout from COVID-19 will probably keep inflation subdued in the near term . But there is a risk of significantly higher inflation further ahead if earlier policy stimulus starts to push prices up sharply and central banks either fail to nip it in …
China’s PMIs will probably show growth in the services sector slowing (Wednesday) The UK’s savings rate may have reached a record high in Q2 (Wednesday) We expect euro-zone inflation to have fallen close to zero in September (Friday) Key Market Themes On …
25th September 2020
The central bank of Mexico is likely to cut its policy rate later on Thursday (19.00 BST) We also expect policymakers in Colombia to cut interest rates on Friday (21.00 BST) The ECB may reduce interest rates on TLTROs as early as next month Key Market …
24th September 2020
We are not convinced the Fed is sowing the seeds of the next crisis by pursuing very easy monetary policy, even if this contributes to higher asset prices. Instead, history suggests the main factors inflating bubbles that pose serious risks to the economy …
Germany’s Ifo Survey may have risen in September (09.00 BST) We think central banks in Switzerland and Norway will stand pat (08.30 & 09.00 BST)… …but expect Mexico’s central bank to cut its policy rate by 25bp (15.00 BST) Key Market Themes We doubt that …
23rd September 2020
BoE’s Bailey may provide hints about when negative rates would be used in the UK Euro-zone consumer confidence probably declined in September (15.00 BST) Rising coronavirus cases across Europe likely to trigger tighter restrictions Key Market Themes …
21st September 2020
We expect flash PMIs to show the euro-zone’s economic recovery slowing this month Policymakers in Mexico and Colombia likely to cuts rates at their forthcoming meetings … … while the central banks of Switzerland, Sweden and Turkey stand pat Key Market …
18th September 2020
Inflation in Japan probably fell further last month (00:30 BST) We expect UK retail sales to have risen slightly last month (07:00 BST) Surprise interest rate cut may be on the cards in Russia (11:30 BST) Key Market Themes Gilt yields have declined …
17th September 2020
UK CPI inflation may have fallen in negative territory in August (07.00 BST) Fed’s updated projections likely to underline that rates will not rise for years (19.00 BST) Brazil’s central bank will probably keep its policy rate on hold (22.00 BST) Key …
15th September 2020
US industrial production likely to have increased only marginally in August (14.15 BST) We think that the unemployment rate in the UK was unchanged at 3.9% in July (07.00 BST) China’s retail sales probably rose above pre-pandemic levels last month (03.00 …
14th September 2020
The FOMC will probably make only limited changes to its forward guidance (Thursday) Bank of Japan likely to keep its policy settings unchanged (Thursday) Russia’s central bank may surprise with an interest rate cut (Friday) Key Market Themes The recent …
11th September 2020
The two asset classes that we track which have seen by far the most action since the last edition of the Asset Allocation Chart Book on 5 th August are US equities and energy commodities. Not only have they been the best and worst performers respectively …
10th September 2020
Peru’s central bank is likely to keep its policy rate on hold (00.00 BST) We expect US CPI data to show another strong rise in prices in August (13.30 BST) Track the latest high-frequency data on COVID-19 cases and economic recoveries here Key Market …
Malaysia’s central bank will probably cut its policy rate further (08.00 BST) We expect the ECB to maintain its current policy stance (12.45 BST) Political developments in the UK could damage trade negotiations with the EU Key Market Themes While the …
9th September 2020
US fiscal negotiations resume but chances of a bipartisan deal remain slim for now Inflation in China probably slowed in August (02.30 BST) We expect the Bank of Canada to keep its policy settings unchanged (15.00 BST) Key Market Themes While the US …
8th September 2020
8 th round of UK-EU post-Brexit trade talks due to commence (Mon.) US fiscal negotiations set to resume as lawmakers return from August recess (Tue.) ECB likely to deliver a dovish message, but keep its policy settings unchanged (Thu.) Key Market Themes …
4th September 2020
Although we think a further shift in real yields in the US vis-à-vis other major economies will keep the dollar under pressure, we expect the overall move to be far smaller than those of the 1980s which were accompanied by big swings in the greenback. So, …
We think that the ISM non-manufacturing index was broadly stable last month (15.00 BST) We expect euro-zone retail sales to have risen marginally in July (10.00 BST) Turkey’s headline inflation probably edged up in August (08.00 BST) Key Market Themes …
2nd September 2020
