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We think UK GDP rebounded in July but recession looms (Mon.) US headline inflation probably fell further in August (Tue.) The PBOC will probably leave the MLF rate unchanged again this month (Thu.) Key Market Themes We suspect the positive correlation …
9th September 2022
Notwithstanding the big policy announcements in the UK this week, we still think that the pound and the UK stock market will struggle over the rest of this year, but expect 10-year Gilts to rally. We set out what we think the “Energy Price Guarantee” …
Despite the rise in volatility lately, compensation for risk across several major asset classes still seems quite low relative to history. That means, in our view, that if volatility were to remain high, it could spark further selloffs across asset …
We think consumer price inflation in China edged lower in August … (02.30 BST) … and inflation data out of Brazil will also show a further fall last month (13.00 BST) Clients can view our latest dashboards and proprietary indicators here Key Market …
8th September 2022
We expect the ECB to raise its policy rate by 75bp ... (13.15 BST) ... while Malaysia’s central bank is likely to hike by 25bp (08.00 BST) Inflation in Mexico and Chile probably edged higher in August (11.00 BST) Key Market Themes We think 10-year …
7th September 2022
We expect Chile’s central bank to hike by 75bp… (Tue 21.00 BST) …and we think the Bank of Canada will do likewise (Wed 15.00 BST) Poland’s central bank may end its tightening cycle with a 50bp hike Key Market Themes Even though we expect the RBA to …
6th September 2022
We expect Australia’s central bank to hike by 50bp (04.30 BST) We think the ISM Services Index fell back a bit in August (15.00 BST) Chile’s central bank could raise its policy rate by a further 75bp (21.00 BST) Key Market Themes The indefinite closure of …
5th September 2022
The UK’s next prime minister will be announced on Monday US ISM services survey probably remained at a healthy level last month (Tuesday) We expect interest rate hikes in the euro-zone, Australia, Canada and several major EMs Key Market Themes With …
2nd September 2022
We think US non-farm payrolls rose by 350,000 in August… (13.30 BST) … and will be discussing the release in a drop-in tomorrow at 15.00 BST Clients can also sign up for Monday’s drop-in on the UK outlook under the new PM here Key Market Themes We …
1st September 2022
While European prices for natural gas have retreated in recent days, the widely tracked TTF benchmark has still risen by more than 20% in August, and remains at a level about ten times higher than was typical prior to last year. Europe’s energy crisis …
31st August 2022
Caixin manufacturing PMI likely to suggest that China’s recovery lost steam (02.45 BST) Euro-zone unemployment rate may have risen for the first time in two years (10.00 BST) US ISM manufacturing survey will probably point to sluggish growth in August …
We think official PMIs will show China’s economy continued to lose momentum (02.30 BST) Inflation in the euro-zone probably rose further in August (10.00 BST) Clients can register for our Drop-In about macro risks across emerging markets here Key …
30th August 2022
While we think that US REITs have further to fall over the rest of this year, we doubt that they will fare nearly as badly as they did during the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), nor underperform ordinary US equities significantly, like they also did back …
In this Focus , we make the case that mid-and large-cap equities in the US will not, in general, continue to outperform those in other developed markets, despite the fact that such outperformance has been virtually relentless since the Global …
26th August 2022
August euro-zone inflation data likely to reinforce the case for further ECB rate hikes (Wed.) Power shortages likely to mean falls in China’s manufacturing PMIs (Wed. & Thu.) We expect another healthy rise in US non-farm payrolls in August (Fri.) Key …
US spending data are likely to show consumption accelerated in July (13.30 BST) Powell’s speech likely to emphasise the need to keep rates high for some time (15.00 BST) We think GDP growth in Nigeria slowed markedly last quarter Key Market Themes …
25th August 2022
We expect the spread between the yields of 10-year German and Swiss government bonds to widen further over the remainder of this year. The spread between 10-year German and Swiss government bond yields has widened sharply this year , with the former …
We expect Korea’s central bank to hike by another 25bp August Ifo Business Climate Indicator may imply a recession in Germany (09.00 BST) Second estimate of US Q2 GDP likely to be revised up (13.30 BST) Key Market Themes Defensive sectors of the S&P 500 …
24th August 2022
We think August mid-month figures will show inflation fell sharply in Brazil (13.00 BST) Core durable goods orders in the US probably edged up last month (13.30 BST) Clients can register for our upcoming Drop-In on the outlooks for China and Japan …
23rd August 2022
We suspect the Composite PMI fell further below 50 in August in the euro-zone… (09.00 BST) … while crossing this boundary for the first time since last lockdown in the UK (09.30 BST) Higher US mortgage rates may have pushed new home sales further down …
22nd August 2022
We expect a 50bp rate hike from Israel’s central bank (Monday) August Flash PMIs for the euro-zone and UK may point towards recession (Tuesday) We doubt that Fed Chair Powell will spring a surprise at Jackson Hole (Friday) Key Market Themes Dividend …
19th August 2022
In the UK, we suspect retail sales volumes declined for the fifth time in six months in July … … and the fiscal position was probably a bit worse than the OBR’s forecast (07.00 BST) Clients can catch-up on our Drop-In on Europe and the impact of …
18th August 2022
Fed’s July meeting minutes likely to emphasise commitment to further hikes (Wed. 19.00 BST) We expect the Norges Bank to raise its policy rate by 50bp to 1.75% (09.00 BST) Turkey’s central bank will probably leave its one-week repo rate on hold at 14% …
17th August 2022
We think the macroeconomic backdrop that we envisage is consistent with certain “defensive” sectors of the S&P 500 – utilities, healthcare and consumer staples – outperforming over the rest of this year. Notwithstanding its rebound over the past few …
UK CPI inflation probably rose further in July (07.00 BST) We think euro-zone economic growth remained positive in Q2 (10.00 BST) US retail sales probably edged higher in July (13.30 BST) Key Market Themes We think equity and commodity prices will …
The UK unemployment rate probably remained flat in June (07.00 BST) Canada’s CPI inflation may have dropped back in July (13.30 BST) We think US industrial production edged higher last month (15.15 BST) Key Market Themes We expect external and domestic …
15th August 2022
US activity data are likely to show the economy began the third quarter in decent health … … but activity data for China will probably show the recovery losing some steam (Mon.) UK Inflation probably rose to nearly 10% last month (Wed.) Key Market Themes …
12th August 2022
We think that UK GDP contracted in June due to temporary working day effects (07.00BST) Euro-zone industrial output probably rose in June, but prospects look gloomy (10.00 BST) Easing inflationary pressures likely aided US consumer confidence this month …
11th August 2022
We expect Mexico’s central bank to hike by 75bp (19.00 BST) Sign up here for our Drop In on the challenges facing economies in Emerging Europe... ...and here for a replay of today’s Drop In on the July US CPI data Key Market Themes Despite dropping on the …
10th August 2022
We held a Drop In yesterday outlining our latest forecasts for global financial markets. This Update answers some questions that we received during that Drop In but didn’t have time to address. What would have to go right for bond and equity markets to be …
We think CPI inflation in China edged higher in July … (02.00 BST) … while headline inflation in the US probably fell back a bit (13.30 BST) Policymakers in Thailand are likely to hike rates for the first time this year (08.00 BST) Key Market Themes …
9th August 2022
Although the spreads of many “risky” bonds have risen significantly this year, some aren’t currently at levels that have typically been followed by substantial future outperformance of their “safe” counterparts. Credit spreads have generally increased on …
We think that inflation rose in Mexico last month, but dropped back in Brazil Clients can register for Tuesday’s Drop-Ins on oil prices and the Gulf economies here … … and on whether the recent rallies in equity and bond markets will last here Key Market …
8th August 2022
Although we think that we have now passed this cycle’s peak in long-dated US Treasury yields, we still suspect that investors are underestimating just how far the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates, and how long it will be before inflationary …
5th August 2022
We think credit growth in China slowed on the back of mortgage boycotts in July (Tue.) US headline CPI inflation may have fallen in July, but we think the core rate rose (Wed.) We expect rate hikes in Mexico, Peru, and Thailand Key Market Themes After a …
While China-Taiwan tensions haven’t yet caused ructions in global financial markets, any escalation that threatened to disrupt trade and/or financial flows almost certainly would. This Update explores the potential ramifications of such an event across …
We expect central banks in Romania and India to hike policy rates We think US non-farm payrolls rose by around 250,000 in July… (13.30 BST) … and clients can sign up here for our Drop-In on the Employment Report (15.00 BST) Key Market Themes While the …
4th August 2022
We expect the Bank of England to hike by 50bp... (12.00 BST) ...while the Czech central bank could raise its policy rate by 25bp (13.30 BST) Sign up for our Drop-In on the big themes in EMs, including US-China tensions, here Key Market Themes We think …
3rd August 2022
We think the Caixin Services PMI edged lower last month (02.45 BST) Inflation in Turkey probably exceeded 80% in July (08.00 BST) We expect Brazil’s central bank to hike rates by 50bp (22.30 BST) Key Market Themes Although the US dollar has faltered over …
2nd August 2022
We expect the RBA to hike its policy rate by 50bp, to 1.85% (04.30 BST) Euro-zone retail sales volumes probably declined in May (10.00 BST) Clients can register for this week’s drop ins on EMs , the BoE and July’s US payroll report Key Market Themes We …
1st August 2022
We expect 50bp rate hikes from the RBA (Tue.) and BoE (Thu.) Central banks in Brazil, India, Romania and Czechia also set to hike next week Employment report may ease fears that the US economy is already in recession (Fri.) Key Market Themes The surge in …
29th July 2022
We still expect a higher 10-year Treasury yield, lower S&P 500 and stronger US dollar over the remainder of the year, but have pared back our forecasts for the rise in yields and fall in equities. In particular, we now suspect the 10-year yield is …
Global economic and market analysis from Capital Economics We expect euro-zone GDP probably rose a little bit last quarter … … and intense price pressures kept regional inflation high in July (10.00 BST) We think that Colombia’s central bank will hike its …
28th July 2022
Global economic and market analysis from Capital Economics We expect the Fed to hike the fed funds rate by 75bp, to 2.25-2.50%(19.00 BST) We think the US economy expanded by just above 1% q/q annualised last quarter (13.30 BST) Register for our Drop-In on …
27th July 2022
We expect the Fed to hike rates by another 75bp, to 2.25-2.50% (19.00 BST) We think inflation in Australia accelerated further in Q2 (01.30 BST) Clients can register for our Drop-In on our latest Global Economic Outlook here (15.00 BST) Key Market Themes …
26th July 2022
Global economic and market analysis from Capital Economics Inflation probably edged down in Brazil in the first half of July (13.00 BST) We expect Hungary’s central bank to hike rates by 100bp (13.00 BST) Clients can register here for a Drop-In on our …
25th July 2022
US equities have plunged this year, but the S&P 500’s valuation remains a long way from looking low on most measures, including Shiller’s CAPE. This is a key reason why we expect the returns from US equities over the next decade or so to fall well short …
We think US GDP expanded in Q2 (Thu.) Japan’s industrial output probably bounced back in June (Fri.) Euro-zone headline CPI inflation may have fallen in July (Fri.) Key Market Themes We doubt bad news for the US economy will continue to be good news for …
22nd July 2022
Headline CPI inflation probably eased in Japan in June (00.30 BST) Rising prices probably weighed on June retail sales volumes in the UK (07.00 BST) We expect July’s flash PMIs to show that activity weakened in the euro-zone & the UK Key Market Themes …
21st July 2022
We expect lift-off from the ECB and a rate hike in South Africa too… …but think that central banks in Indonesia, Turkey and Japan will stand pat Gas exports to Europe via NordStream are scheduled to resume tomorrow Key Market Themes The release of strong …
20th July 2022
