Last year’s sharp weakening of the yen hasn’t boosted goods exports, not least because most exports are invoiced in foreign currency and exporters haven’t slashed prices. Instead, it has lifted corporate profits which has encouraged firms to invest more …
13th July 2023
BoK on hold again but conditions now in place for a cut The decision today by the Bank of Korea to leave interest rates unchanged (at 3.5%) for a fourth consecutive meeting came as no surprise. The central bank is due to hold a press conference and …
Bigger falls in US core inflation than in the euro-zone or UK might mean government bond yields decline a bit more quickly in the US over the rest of this year, but ultimately we expect yields to fall in all three economies over time. June’s US CPI data …
12th July 2023
Rate hike on the cards, odds (just) in favour of a 25bp move The rise in Russian inflation to 3.3% y/y last month means the central bank will almost certainly follow through on its recent hawkish rhetoric by hiking interest rates when it meets next month. …
The Bank of Canada’s 25bp hike today, taking the policy rate to 5.0%, is likely to be the last in this cycle. With the labour market loosening, core inflation falling and the survey indicators implying that inflation expectations are normalising, we …
Given our view that a big stock market rally fuelled by enthusiasm about AI is on the way, we expect equities in some IT and industrials subsectors to outperform, which would favour the US market. Equities in the US have fared markedly better than those …
Bank of Japan Asset Purchases Stock (Yen bn) …
Japan Real GDP Growth (%, quarterly since 2021 Q1) …
Japan Job-to-Applicant Ratio and Unemployment Rate …
Euro-zone Job Vacancy Rate (%) …
CE 2024 Headline Inflation Forecast and Mid-Point of Inflation Targets for EM Europe Economies (% y/y) …
Asia (ex. Japan) & EM Headline Inflation (% y/y, period averages) …
US Light Vehicle Sales (millions, annualised) …
UK Employment (thousands, monthly) …
Euro-zone Real Household Disposable Income Growth (% y/y, quarterly since 2015) …
Japan Nominal Total Bank Deposits (Yen bn) …
Japan Railway Usage (2015 = 100) …
Europe Core Inflation (% 3m ann., SA) …
Canada and US Headline Inflation (% 3m ann., SA) …
Euro-zone Headline and Core Inflation (% 3m ann., SA) …
US Headline and Core Inflation (% 3m ann., SA) …
France & Germany National CPI (% y/y, monthly) …
CE Gold & Silver Price Forecasts (US$ per troy ounce, end of quarter, since Q1 2016) …
CE Crude Oil & US Natural Gas Price Forecasts (end of quarter, since Q1 2016) …
UK Mortgage Affordability (%, quarterly) …
Canada CFIB Factors Causing Difficulty (% of firms) …
Canada Employment and Productivity Growth (% y/y, long-term forecast) …
Canada Core and Vehicle Retail Sales (CAD $mn, volumes) …
Canada Household Interest Payments (% of Household Income) …
Euro-zone Consumers' Major Purchases Intentions and Car Registrations …
Euro-zone Big 4 Consumer Confidence …
Euro-zone Big 4 EC Economic Sentiment Indicator …
Germany Industrial Production (2015 = 100) …
Germany Employment Growth (% y/y, long-term forecast) …
Euro-zone Big 4 Unemployment Rates (%) …
US Labour Force (Thousands) …
Switzerland Real GDP (% q/q since 2018) …
Netherlands Real GDP (% q/q since 2018) …
Italy Real GDP (% q/q since 2021) …
Germany Real GDP (% q/q since 2021) …
Table: Commodity Price Forecasts (end of year) …
China Fixed Asset Investment as a Share of GDP (%) …
France Policy Interest Rate and 10Y Bond Yield (%, quarterly) …
Taiwan Real GDP (% q/q since 2018) …
Portugal Real GDP (% q/q since 2018) …
Nominal Policy Rates in Major DMs (%, 1970-2050) …
US Real Consumer Spending and GDP Growth (% y/y) …
CE Composite Model US Recession Probabilities (in 3 & 6 months) …
UK BTL Mortgage Advances For House Purchase (thousands, annual) …
UK Mortgage Arrears (> 2.5% of balance, % share of loans, annual) …
