While our bullish year-end forecast of 7,000 for the S&P 500 assumes the index’s absolute valuation will approach its dotcom-era peak, that forecast is comparatively conservative based on relative valuation. If the equity risk premium reached its level in …
20th February 2025
We still think the PBOC will allow the renminbi to depreciate against the US dollar, perhaps quite significantly, by the end of the year. We suspect there are a few reasons that China’s central bank declined to cut its benchmark Loan Prime Rates today …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Hot jobs report will keep the RBA vigilant The tight labour market reinforces our view that the RBA will deliver a shallow easing cycle. We expect the Bank to hand down only two …
Fed in no hurry to resume cutting rates The minutes of the Fed’s late-January policy meeting underline that, having cut rates by a cumulative 100bp, officials are in no hurry to resume loosening monetary policy, even though most still thought the current …
19th February 2025
It may seem odd that tech firms are likely to make further layoffs in 2025, while at the same time being one of the leading sectors for hiring intentions. But this broadly reflects cutbacks in less profitable areas to free up capital to invest in …
We expect Korea’s economy to grow by just 1.0% this year, with the political crisis and the downturn in the property sector set to weigh heavily on demand. Our forecast is well below both the consensus expectation and our estimate of trend growth. We …
The Bank of Canada has downplayed the recent stronger monthly increases in its preferred CPI-trim and CPI-median core measures, but we are not convinced by the Bank’s claim that these measures are overstating underlying inflation pressures. While the GST …
Although long-term government bond yields in developed markets (DM) have moved in tandem with those of US Treasuries in recent months, we think they will diverge in the coming months. 10-year government bond yields have risen across the board this week – …
Overview – The economic outlook has worsened over the past couple of months, which supports our call that the recovery in commercial property will be modest by past standards. Admittedly, interest rates are set to fall back. But with the spread over gilts …
Weather partly to blame for decline in housing starts The decline in housing starts in January is not a major concern, as it comes after a surge in starts in December and appears partly driven by the unseasonably harsh weather. Encouragingly, permit …
The eleventh-hour unprecedented postponement of South Africa’s 2025 Budget due to disagreements within the Government of National Unity on tax policy, suggest that it is domestic rather than foreign policy where the cracks in the coalition lie. The delay …
South Africa’s hard activity data for December were generally disappointing but it’s still likely that the economy rebounded in Q4 of last year following a surprise contraction in Q3. We expect the recovery to continue this year and have pencilled in …
Europe Commercial Property Valuation Monitor (Q1 2025) …
Whereas political pushback against the cost of climate action is hindering policy in North America and Europe, the tailwinds from China’s low-cost green technology exports are becoming more concentrated in emerging markets more aligned with China. The …
Saudi Arabia’s real estate sector is in the midst of a boom and affordability among Saudi citizens for housing is becoming increasingly stretched, which may tempt the authorities to loosen lending criteria in a bid to meet their Vision 2030 targets for …
Rates on hold, but further easing likely later in the year Bank Indonesia today left its main policy rate unchanged (at 5.75%) but hinted that further easing was likely later in the year. We are maintaining our view the central bank will cut rates …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Climb in inflation to 3% will be uncomfortable for the BoE CPI inflation took another step up from 2.5% in December to 3.0% in January (consensus, BoE, CE 2.8%) and will probably …
Having handed down a third consecutive 50bp rate cut at its meeting today, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand is likely to slow the pace of easing going forward. That said, we still think there’s a compelling case for a lower terminal rate than most are …
RBNZ to cut further than most expect Having handed down its third consecutive 50bp cut today, the RBNZ is likely to slow the pace of easing going forward. That said, we still think there’s a compelling case for a lower terminal rate than most are …
Wage pressures continue to soften Although the RBA will welcome the continued slowdown in wage growth, we still think it will deliver only a shallow easing cycle. The 0.7% q/q rise in the wage price index last quarter was a touch softer than most had …
The decision by the US and Russia to “lay the groundwork” to end the war in Ukraine marks a potentially significant turning point after three years of conflict. Negotiations will take time and the macroeconomic implications will depend on the features of …
18th February 2025
Nigeria’s headline inflation rate came in at 24.5% y/y in January after the national statistics office made substantial methodological changes and, while we do not yet have the full information to predict the exact path for inflation going forward, fading …
Chinese stocks have generally outperformed those elsewhere in recent weeks amid signs that investors’ enthusiasm over AI is (belatedly) benefiting stocks there. While we agree that the outlook for equities in China has improved, we still think that they …
Polar vortex freezes market The plunge in the sales-to-new listings ratio in January is a downside risk to our view that house prices will recover this year, particularly amid anecdotal evidence that US tariff threats are weighing on demand. Developers …
We doubt that Donald Trump’s reciprocal tariff threat, nor his broader protectionist agenda, are priced in markets fully. We expect US Treasury yields and the dollar to edge up as these tariffs come into effect. In our view, this, alongside continued …
The economy continues to do well with GDP growing strongly and employment growth solid. We are concerned, however, that the Trump administration’s policies will weigh on GDP growth over the course of this year. Nonetheless, with downward progress on core …
Five years on from start of the pandemic, one of the big economic legacies in India is the adoption of digital payments, driven by mobile apps and the Unified Payments Interface (UPI). This increased digitalisation broadens the tax base, expands lending …
We think the window for further Fed interest rate cuts has closed, so mortgage rates should remain near their current 7% level this year, before a little more relief arrives in 2026. There will still be room for sales to improve, aided by less restrictive …
Underlying inflation pressures too strong beneath the surface The GST holiday meant that headline inflation remained below the 2% target in January, but there is clear evidence that underlying inflation pressures are building. Given the tariff threat …
Colombia’s economy strengthened at the end of last year, with GDP expanding at its fastest pace in more than two years. But the combination of tight fiscal and monetary policy, alongside lower oil prices, means that growth is likely to disappoint in 2025. …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Weak employment, but wage growth still too high for BoE’s liking While there was a small improvement in labour market activity in December and January, employment growth remains …
When the Reserve Bank of Australia handed down its inaugural 25bp cut today, it indicated that any further withdrawal of monetary restriction would be limited, given residual inflationary pressures. Accordingly, we’re comfortable with our view that the …
RBA starts easing, but tempers expectations for further cuts When the Reserve Bank of Australia cut rates by 25bp at its meeting today, it signalled that any further withdrawal of monetary restriction would be gradual. Accordingly, we’re comfortable with …
Increased defence spending in Europe would in our view point not only to higher bond yields but also to wider spreads with German bonds. While industrial equities would presumably benefit, they might not keep outpacing their US peers. For decades, defence …
17th February 2025
European governments are poised to further scale up their plans for defence spending in the coming years which should benefit the equity prices of European defence companies, but the boost to GDP is likely to be small. As things stand we think the bulk of …
With return-to-office policies again hitting the headlines in the last week we are highlighting our recent notes on the outlook for remote work across the markets we forecast. In the first two of those, we pushed back against the idea that in the next few …
Some major Latin American economies are among the most exposed to the steel and aluminium tariffs (Mexico and Brazil) and reciprocal tariffs (Argentina and Brazil) announced recently by US President Trump. But neither Brazil nor Argentina are heavily …
A weaker economy than we previously thought could mean housing demand is a bit more subdued than we expect. But our forecast for mortgage rates to fall further than is widely anticipated suggests transactions will continue to recover and house prices can …
Economy struggling ahead of Hamas ceasefire The slowdown in Israeli GDP growth, to 2.5% q/q annualised, in Q4 suggests the drag on activity from rising tensions with Hezbollah last quarter was a bit larger than we expected. The recent ceasefires with …
The outcomes of central bank meetings over the last few weeks underscore the point that Asia will lead the next phase of the EM monetary easing cycle this year, alongside Mexico. Meanwhile, there are a handful of EM central banks (particularly in Central …
While household incomes are rising the most since the early 1990s, households are saving rather than spending the bulk of those gains. And with real income growth set to slow this year, we expect consumption growth to remain solid rather than …
GDP growth in Thailand slowed in Q4, but we are expecting a better year ahead, with loose fiscal policy and further recovery in tourism spending set to be the key drivers. However, downside risks remain high. The 3.2% y/y rise in Q4 GDP was below …
GDP growth should settle around trend this year Even though the jump in Q4 GDP wasn’t broad-based, it supports our view that the Bank of Japan will tighten policy more aggressively this year than most anticipate. According to the preliminary estimate …
Bank of Canada navigating without tariff roadmap The Summary of Deliberations from the Bank of Canada’s January policy meeting confirmed that tariff uncertainty had a hand to play in its decision to cut interest rates by 25bp. In particular, members of …
14th February 2025
Despite Wednesday’s hotter than expected US CPI report, the greenback remains on the backfoot as the dollar “Trump trade” has gone into reverse. Between news on President Trump’s tariffs plans, his steps towards an apparent rapprochement with Russia, and …
