Belgium Office Yield Forecasts (%, 2023-2027) …
10th August 2023
France Retail Rental Value Growth Forecasts (% y/y, 2023-2027) …
Table: Industrial Capital Value Growth in Ge, Fr, It, Sp, Nl, Cz, Pl, UK (% y/y) …
UK Office Capital Value Growth Forecasts (% y/y, 2023-2027) …
Spain Office Capital Value Growth Forecasts (% y/y, 2023-2027) …
Spain Office Yield Forecasts (%, 2023-2027) …
Germany Office Yield Forecasts (%, 2023-2027) …
France Office Capital Value Growth Forecasts (% y/y, 2023-2027) …
UK Retail Capital Value Growth Forecasts (% y/y, 2023-2027) …
Germany Retail Capital Value Growth Forecasts (% y/y, 2023-2027) …
Belgium Retail Capital Value Growth Forecasts (% y/y, 2023-2027) …
Table: Industrial Net Initial Yield/Prime Yield in Ge, Fr, It, Sp, Nl, Cz, Pl, UK (%) …
Belgium Office Capital Value Growth Forecasts (% y/y, 2023-2027) …
Belgium Office Rental Value Growth Forecasts (% y/y, 2023-2027) …
We think Norges Bank will go through with its plan to raise its policy rate by 25bp next week, to 4.0%, and follow that up with a final hike in September to 4.25%. At its last meeting, in June, Norges Bank raised its policy rate by 50bp, to 3.75%. That …
Bucharest offices have been CEE’s best performing so far this year, as rent growth has accelerated rapidly. Although we expect growth to slow sharply from 2024, constrained supply of prime space and persistently high inflation suggest prime rents will …
The yield of 10-year Japanese government bonds (JGBs) may come closer to the new “just-in-case” cap of 1.0% in the coming months, but we doubt it will settle that high further ahead. Since the Bank of Japan (BoJ) effectively abandoned Yield Curve Control …
After a strong run since April, inflows into EM bond and equity markets have softened markedly in the past few weeks. Inflows into India, in particular, have weakened. Turkey continues to see sizeable foreign inflows, but these are only a fraction of the …
Inflation hits fresh record high, CBE has more work to do Egypt’s headline inflation hit a fresh record high of 36.5% y/y in July and, with a fresh devaluation of the pound on the cards in the coming months, it will remain elevated for some time. The …
Decline in inflation in line with central bank’s expectations July’s decline in inflation in Norway was broadly in line with the central bank’s forecast. So Norges Bank is likely to go ahead with its planned 25bp rate hike next week. The decline in …
Market conditions continue to worsen Given the recent rise in average mortgage rates to their highest level since 2008, we are not surprised by the further deterioration in the RICS headline survey figures. And as we do not expect market conditions to …
The RBI kept the repo rate on hold at 6.50% today as expected and maintained a hawkish tone amid the recent surge in food prices. It’s unlikely that the rate hiking cycle will restart. But there is a significant risk of the easing cycle that we expect to …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. The economy contracted in Q2 and we expect continued weakness in the near-term as elevated interest rates and weak global demand weigh on economic output in the Philippines. …
The data show a small, but limited, divergence in performance between overall class A and classes B and C office space. But that differential appears to have been driven by newly-built trophy space rather than the broader class A grouping. We expect this …
9th August 2023
Inflation pressures picking up, tightening cycle has only just begun The jump in Russian inflation to 4.3% y/y in July provides firmer evidence that the recent build-up of inflation pressures, including from the weakening of the ruble, are now showing up …
Despite oil prices hitting new year-to-date highs, other factors seem to be dominating the effect of rising oil prices on equity, bond, and FX markets. Even if, as we expect, oil prices edge lower over the next couple of years, we think the link between …
Recent interest rate cuts in Brazil and Chile have fuelled talk of a broad-based EM easing cycle and we expect most EM central banks to start cutting rates in Q4 or Q1. We expect those with the highest policy rates (above 10%) to deliver 500bp or so of …
Angola’s recent 40% devaluation of the kwanza will add to inflation pressures and prompt the central bank to tighten monetary policy aggressively, all of which will weigh on near-term growth. The large share of public debt in foreign currency, means that …
Weak economic activity in developed economies and a stronger dollar will temper gains in most commodity prices over the rest of the year. In oil markets, Saudi Arabia’s output cuts have kept supply constrained while demand in the US and China has held up. …
Even though the financial strains that emerged after SVB’s collapse have dissipated, interest rate hikes have left overall financial conditions in major advanced economies close to their tightest since the GFC, posing downside risks to activity. As …
Sticky services inflation to keep Banxico in hawkish mood Mexico’s headline inflation rate continued to drop back in July, to 4.8% y/y, but with services inflation proving to be sticky, we doubt that Banxico will turn to interest rate cuts until the turn …
Our latest UK commercial property valuation monitor is embedded below: A small rise in property yields in Q2 was not enough to offset a surge in alternative asset yields, particularly the 10-year gilt, and as a result valuations worsened. Looking ahead …
Energy prices will remain historically high over the remainder of this year, albeit significantly lower than their peak in 2022. Supply in the oil market is constrained and demand appears to be holding up well. The natural gas market appears comfortably …
RBNZ to remain on hold Although inflation and wage growth remain strong, they are showing signs of cooling As recession deepens, rate cuts will be on the table in Q1 2024 With inflation coming off the boil and labour market conditions starting to …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication . Services inflation hits 17-month high CPI joined PPI in deflationary territory last month. But this was due to a sharp drop in food inflation caused by base effects. More …
The share prices of US banks have recovered some ground since a low point in May, as concerns about further failures in the industry have abated; Treasury yields have rebounded; and the economy has remained resilient. Even so, we’re sceptical banks will …
8th August 2023
We expect targeted stimulus in China to put a floor under base metals prices in the remainder of 2023. But the slowdown in developed economies (DMs) will prevent significant gains. Prices should start to pick up in 2024 as monetary easing takes hold in …
China’s commodity import volumes fell in July compared to June. Policy support should help lift metals imports over the next few months. And although crude oil imports fell sharply, we think that rising international aviation to and from China will …
Net trade weighed on second-quarter GDP growth Weaker global demand and the fading boost from easing supply shortages took a toll on exports in June, confirming that net trade weighed on second-quarter GDP growth. While the surveys point to further …
Exports set for renewed weakness soon The narrowing in the trade deficit to $65.5bn in June, from $68.3bn, mainly reflected a further slide in imports, with exports little changed. But with the survey evidence suggesting that renewed weakness in exports …
While Paris rents have been flat for some time, there are signs that the post-pandemic rebound in tourism is starting to boost high street luxury retail. And the upcoming Paris Olympics in 2024 will also add to demand, meaning retail rental growth should …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication . Exports have further to fall Chinese exports contracted in July by the most since the start of the pandemic. But the recent declines mostly reflect lower prices rather than …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Wage growth should slow as labour market slackens Wage growth remained strong in June as summer bonuses rose, but regular pay growth slowed and is unlikely to become strong …
We think the 10-year/2-year Treasury yield spread will become less inverted over the next year or so, but doubt this will come primarily via a continued rise in the 10-year yield like we saw last week. A striking part of last week’s Treasury sell-off was …
7th August 2023
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. NBR to stand pat until early 2024 The National Bank of Romania (NBR) left its main policy rate on hold again today, at 7.00%, and we think that it will continue to leave rates …
The appreciation in the Swiss franc this year has been largely at odds with moves in many of the factors which typically drive the currency. We believe this is mostly due to intervention from the Swiss National Bank (SNB) in foreign currency markets. …
With CPI inflation soon to fall below average earnings growth, the cost of living crisis appears to be coming to an end. But households won’t suddenly stop feeling the pinch. We suspect the level of real household disposable income will remain below where …
Economies in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) have experienced large and persistent net migration outflows in recent decades, but the tide has shifted in the past five years or so as outflows have dropped sharply. This is likely to continue, with net …
