Surveys suggest recovery is petering out Data released this week suggest that the euro-zone recovery is fizzling out and leave us comfortable with our below consensus forecasts. Data released on Wednesday showed that the Composite PMI fell in July for the …
26th July 2024
Core PCE inflation data strengthen case for September rate cut Core PCE prices increased by 0.18% m/m in June, largely as expected and, although May's increase was revised up slightly to 0.13%, from 0.08%, that still means inflation has been running at a …
CBR delivers bumper hike, leaves door open for further tightening Russia’s central bank (CBR) stepped up to the plate with a 200bp hike to its key policy rate today, to 18.00%, in response to the overheating economy and a renewed surge in inflation. While …
Korea’s unbalanced economy Figures published earlier this week showed that GDP in Korea contracted in the second quarter of the year. While the outturn was below analyst expectations, it was exactly in line with our own estimate. The figures also …
Budget shows focus on employment for Modi 3.0 The government presented the FY24/25 Union Budget on Tuesday, in which it managed to further lower the deficit target while largely fulfilling the spending demands of the BJP’s new coalition partners. We …
We think the capital market reforms announced as part of China’s Third Plenum won’t be enough to reinvigorate China’s equities, which we still think will provide disappointing long-run returns. It’s been a tough few days for China’s equities, which had …
Weak Tokyo CPI may prompt BoJ inaction While we expect the Bank of Japan to lift its policy rate to 0.3% at next week’s meeting (see our BoJ Watch ), only one-third of analysts polled by Refinitiv expect a rate hike at that meeting. The financial markets …
Strong public investment growth alongside overall fiscal prudence have contributed to the rallies in India’s bond and stock markets over the past couple of years. However, we don’t see much in the latest budget to revise our view that gains in the coming …
Case for RBNZ to ease strengthens According to a new survey released by Retail NZ this week, things are going from bad to worse for the domestic retail industry. Indeed, more than two-thirds of retailers reported that they had failed to meet their sales …
The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) kept policy unchanged today, but we think today’s marginally dovish statement raises the likelihood of monetary easing in October. The MAS conducts monetary policy by targeting the nominal effective exchange rate …
This website has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Underlying inflation may moderate faster than we expect The sharp slowdown in inflation excluding fresh food and energy in Tokyo this month reduces the likelihood that the …
We think that, in the absence of a recession, “big tech” stocks will regain the lead before long, regardless of the pace of falling inflation. US stock markets have taken a glass half-full view of today’s key US data release , which revealed that both US …
25th July 2024
Russia, Poland, Czechia & Hungary 10-Year Government Bond Yields (%, end-of-month) …
Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico & Peru 10-Year Government Bond Yields (%, end-of-month) …
Kenya, Nigeria & South Africa 10-Year Government Bond Yields (%, end-of-month) …
Egypt 10-Year Government Bond Yield (%, end-of-month) …
China & India 10-Year Government Bond Yields (%, daily) …
Non-European DM 10-Year Government Bond Yields (%, daily) …
Non Euro-zone European 10-Year Government Bond Yields (%, daily) …
Euro-zone 10-Year Government Bond Yields (%, daily) …
10-Year Government Bond Yield for Selected Economies (% w/w) …
10-Year Government Bond Yields for Selected Economies (% m/m) …
Policy Interest Rates for Selected Economies (%, end-of-month) …
Core Inflation for Selected Economies (%, monthly) …
Unemployment Rate in Selected Economies (%, quarterly) …
Government Debt in Selected Economies (% of GDP, annual) …
Real GDP in Selected Economies (% q/q) …
Real GDP in Selected Economies (% y/y, quarterly) …
Almost ready to cut But economic resilience and sticky inflation will probably mean MPC waits until September We think rates will be cut to 3.00% next year, below current market pricing of 4.00% While it will be a very close call, the economy’s recent …
We don’t think the recent rotation in US equities sets the stage for something much bigger. In our opinion, another sustained and substantial rotation won’t begin until shortly before the bubble in the stock market bursts. And our baseline assumption is …
We think that a second term for President Trump would probably worsen the outlook for sustainable energy equities at the margin, and also add to the pessimism around stocks in the beleaguered electric vehicle (EV) sector. We expect that both supply and …
The start of the Paris Olympic Games today suggests that there will be renewed interest in gold, silver and bronze. We suspect that athletes will be disappointed by the fact that the Olympic medals are not worth their weight in gold. What’s more, with …
Continuing blackouts in Egypt show need for a fix Egypt’s electricity blackouts have persisted this week and, while there is light at the end of the tunnel, the government needs to boost energy investments to avoid a repeat of power cuts in the coming …
While headline balances saw little movement, digging deeper the Q2 RICS survey shows a reversal of last quarter’s more positive outlook. Indeed, respondents seem more downbeat, with almost half now believing we are still in the downturn phase of the …
We expect a softer 170,000 rise in non-farm payrolls in July, alongside a more substantial easing in wage growth. The 206,000 rise in non-farm payrolls in June beat expectations, but the accompanying details were disappointing. April and May’s figures …
Our team have recorded a special podcast episode all about the big themes in commercial real estate. The 12-minute episode showcases our enhanced coverage which provides a more global, comparative view of how the key markets we forecast are performing, …
The Q2 RICS commercial survey added to the growing body of evidence that capital values at the all-property level have now bottomed out. But, in line with our forecasts, it also implied that the recovery will be modest by past standards with values only …
US, Euro-zone & UK Wages (% y/y, quarterly) …
US & UK Average Earnings (% y/y, monthly) …
Stronger-than-expected growth unlikely to prevent September rate cut The sharper-than-expected pick-up in second-quarter GDP growth to 2.8% annualised should make the Fed a bit more comfortable about keeping policy unchanged next week, but the recent …
Inflation rises, no more cuts this year The stronger-than-expected rise in Brazil’s headline inflation rate, 4.45% y/y in the first half of July, was mainly driven by a pick-up in underlying core services inflation. This, coming alongside fiscal concerns …
Net immigration to euro-zone countries will probably be higher than the UN assumes in its latest population forecasts. But we still think the working age population will decline over the coming decade and that is a key reason to expect GDP growth to be …
Explore scenarios for the US economy in this interactive dashboard and track changes in probabilities for shorter-term macro outcomes. If you have subscriber access to the data underlying this dashboard, you can download it via the menu options in the top …
Overview – Inflation still looks set to be in line with central banks’ targets next year (see Chart 1), but upside risks have increased outside the US. With the sharp falls in energy and food inflation behind us, disinflation has slowed amid …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. German recovery petering out The large fall in the German Ifo BCI in July, which follows a similar drop in the Composite PMI published yesterday, adds to the impression that the …
Surprise cut points to mounting policymaker concern The PBOC’s decision to cut the 1-year interest rate on its medium-term lending facility (MLF) earlier today is unusual for two reasons. First, the 20bp reduction is double the size of the PBOC’s usual …
Table: US Long-term Forecasts (annual) …
Following a wobbly period around the turn of the year, the economy is on the mend and should gather further momentum as real wage growth turns positive in the second half of the year. With goods inflation still having strong momentum, we now expect the …
The latest GDP figures suggest that the central bank’s concerns about the weakness of domestic demand will only rise. With concerns about the health of the economy set to overtake those about inflation, we continue to expect the Bank of Korea to start …
Regional growth appears to have slowed in Q2 and we think it will be sluggish in the next few quarters. At a country level, we expect the Andean economies to outperform Brazil and Mexico in the next couple of years. With inflation set to rise further in …
24th July 2024
