Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Jan.) The further increase in the Ifo Business Climate Index in January confirms that the recovery in German business sentiment that started at the end of 2022 has continued this year. But the fall in its... 25th January 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response German Ifo Business Climate Indicator (January) 25th January 2023 · 2 mins read
Event Drop-In: Fed, ECB and BoE – Unpacking the first rate decisions of 2023 1675353600 As 2023’s calendar of central bank meetings began, we held a special briefing on the first Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and Bank of England policy decisions of the year.
UK Data Response S&P Global/CIPS Flash PMIs (Jan.) The renewed fall in the flash UK composite PMI in January suggests that some of the resilience in economic activity towards the back end of 2022 petered out in early 2023. That supports our view that... 24th January 2023 · 2 mins read
UK Data Response Public Finances (Dec.) December’s worse-than-expected public finances figures suggest the Chancellor will wait until closer to the next election before announcing any significant tax cuts and/or spending rises. 24th January 2023 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily The euro and relative interest rate expectations We don’t think government bond yield gaps with the US will continue to shift in favour of the euro-zone as they have over recent months, even if the ECB continues hiking after the Fed stops. That will... 23rd January 2023 · 5 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Surveys point to much slower employment growth The sharp fall in hiring intentions in the Bank of Canada’s Business Outlook Survey suggests that the 104,000 surge in employment in December is not a sign of things to come. The survey points to a... 23rd January 2023 · 8 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Core inflation revisions won’t change Bank’s thinking The CPI-trim and CPI-median measures of core inflation will be revised up next month but that does not change our view that they will fall sharply over the first half of this year. We think the 25 bp... 20th January 2023 · 4 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Investment set for weak H1 before picking up in late-2023 We expect the slowdown in investment activity in the second half of 2022 to persist into the first half of 2023. But we think transactions will begin to recover later this year once interest rates... 20th January 2023 · 3 mins read
Event Canada Drop-In: Is this the end of the Bank of Canada’s tightening cycle? 1674666000 Join Paul Ashworth, our Chief North America Economist, Stephen Brown, who leads our Canada coverage, and Jonathan Peterson, Senior
Europe Economics Update Germany to avoid industrial recession We now think German industry will continue to grow in the coming months as lower gas prices, easing supply shortages and high backlogs of orders support production. 20th January 2023 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Update Taking stock of the outlook for the US dollar With inflationary pressures easing and the global growth outlook improving, we no longer expect the US dollar to breach its late September peak. But we still think that souring risk appetite... 20th January 2023 · 4 mins read
US Economics Weekly Activity data take a turn for the worse The weakness of retail sales and manufacturing output over the final two months of 2022 has reignited market fears of a hard landing this week, with the Fed’s latest Beige Book acknowledging that... 20th January 2023 · 8 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Domestic inflation is proving persistent CPI inflation is falling, but domestic inflationary pressures are proving persistent as the labour market remains tight and wage growth remains strong. Combined with a more resilient economy than the... 20th January 2023 · 7 mins read
