Long Run Focus Global migration to bounce back Global migration has ground to a halt over the past year or so, but we doubt that the pandemic will have any major lasting impact. Moreover, there is potential for migration to get a fresh impetus... 15th June 2021 · 21 mins read
Long Run Focus Will we start working less? The downward trend in average working hours in advanced economies has slowed or stalled in the past few decades. Yet there are reasons to think that the decline will resume, at least in some sectors... 13th May 2021 · 19 mins read
Long Run Focus Accelerated technology use will improve productivity There is evidence that the pandemic has accelerated technology use, partly through increased equipment investment but mainly through a change in the way that people work. The effects on productivity... 16th April 2021 · 14 mins read
Long Run Focus Another decade of negative real interest rates The equilibrium level of real interest rates in the global economy may not remain quite as low as of late, but we expect any rise to be gradual and small. With policymakers at the same time taking a... 24th February 2021 · 28 mins read
Long Run Focus The winners and losers from climate change Climate change will be more costly to EMs than developed countries, with parts of Africa, as well as South and South East Asia most vulnerable to rising global temperatures. That said, some EMs could... 19th November 2020 · 15 mins read
Long Run Focus Pandemic increases risk of high inflation The pandemic has increased the odds that the US will eventually experience a period of high inflation, principally because we expect the Fed to be less committed to ensuring price stability in the... 16th November 2020 · 33 mins read
Long Run Focus A new era of financial repression Financial repression – defined in the current context as measures that artificially lower the cost of government borrowing – will become an increasingly used tool to cope with higher public sector... 10th November 2020 · 23 mins read
Long Run Focus The world after COVID-19 We forecast that the returns from equities will beat those from government bonds in the world after COVID-19. However, we expect the outperformance of large-cap equities in the US to end. 20th October 2020 · 25 mins read
Long Run Focus The role of the state in the post-pandemic world The state has taken on a much greater role in G7 countries during the pandemic and there is no guarantee that it will relinquish all its new powers when the coronavirus threat fades. The pandemic... 13th October 2020 · 23 mins read
Long Run Focus COVID-19 to hasten peak oil demand In this Focus, we argue that the medium-term impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on both global economic growth and consumer behaviour has brought forward “peak oil demand” to around 2030. As a result, we... 8th October 2020 · 19 mins read
Long Run Focus The private sector costs of COVID-19 The immediate costs of the COVID crisis will be shouldered more by governments than the private sector. However, as fiscal support recedes in the coming years, a greater share of the costs will be... 30th September 2020 · 31 mins read
Long Run Focus Globalisation will stall in the wake of COVID-19 Global supply chains have functioned well this year despite the disruption of social distancing and lockdowns, and people in many places appear more appreciative of migrants. But the pandemic is... 22nd September 2020 · 25 mins read
Long Run Focus Will inflation make a comeback? Although low inflation is likely to be the story over the next couple of years, the huge amount of policy stimulus could push up inflation further ahead. Central banks, in theory, have the tools to... 10th September 2020 · 27 mins read
Long Run Focus Lasting blow to supply capacity is not inevitable It is by no means inevitable that the coronavirus crisis puts a big permanent hole in the supply capacity of economies (i.e. their ability to produce goods and services). With the right government... 29th June 2020 · 28 mins read
Long Run Focus Will the coronavirus permanently change behaviours? As long as social distancing isn’t practised for many years, then those behavioural changes triggered specifically by the coronavirus crisis will probably prove temporary. But those changes that were... 23rd June 2020 · 33 mins read
Long Run Focus The new wave of technological progress We side with the optimists regarding the chances of another major technological step forward, although we can only guess at the timing. We expect the US to remain at the forefront of these advances... 13th February 2020 · 28 mins read
