Latin America Chart Pack Mixed end to a disappointing year The last round of economic data released this year pointed to a mixed performance in Latin America. Growth seems to have remained robust in Colombia in Q4 – and to have strengthened in Brazil – but... 19th December 2019 · 13 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Q3 the high point in the regional recovery We estimate that regional GDP growth picked up to about 0.5% q/q in Q3, which would be the fastest pace in 18 months. But that probably marks the peak in the recovery. Argentina and Chile are set to... 29th November 2019 · 12 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Political clouds gather Political risk grabbed the headlines this month, with protestors taking to the streets across the Andes and Argentina electing a new Peronist president. Demonstrations in Ecuador and Chile will weigh... 31st October 2019 · 13 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Rate cuts in Brazil and Mexico will continue The central banks of Brazil and Mexico loosened policy this month, and we expect that they will continue to cut rates in Q4. Inflation in both countries is below target, and both economies are... 30th September 2019 · 12 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Argentina turns to default The collapse in Argentine assets this month and the subsequent news that the government will seek to reprofile its debts puts the country on the brink of its fifth default in thirty years. The economy... 30th August 2019 · 12 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Interest rate cuts imminent The case for interest rate cuts across Latin America has strengthened in the past month, partly because of the dovish shift by the Fed, but also because of soft domestic inflation and growth... 25th July 2019 · 12 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Investors go from too hawkish to too dovish Investors have rapidly come round to our dovish view on Latin American monetary policy but, if anything, they have probably now gone too far in anticipating large rate cuts across the region over the... 25th June 2019 · 12 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Regional growth slumps The raft of GDP data released this month showed that regional growth slowed to just 0.3% y/y in Q1 (from 1.0% y/y in Q4), the weakest pace in two years. While it doesn’t look like sluggish growth will... 29th May 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Political risks begin to crystallise The past month has seen political risks in key economies start to crystallise. The rout in Argentine markets, triggered by concerns about the dwindling re-election prospects of President Macri, has... 29th April 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Robust growth in Andes, but CA deficits widening Robust GDP growth in the Andes over the past year or so has been a rare piece of good news in Latin America, but in Chile and Colombia’s case, this has come alongside growing external vulnerabilities... 25th March 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Soft inflation points to rates staying low for longer Inflation has fallen across the region at the start of this year, and is likely to stay relatively soft in the coming months. One common driver of weaker inflation has been lower fuel inflation. But... 27th February 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Venezuela at a tipping point Venezuela’s sovereign dollar bonds have rallied strongly over the past few weeks as investors appear to be betting on a swift regime change and a smooth debt restructuring, but the markets risk... 31st January 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Turning the corner The recent slowdown in Latin American growth appears to have passed its trough. Our regional GDP Tracker suggests that output rose by around 1.3-1.5% y/y at the start of Q4, up from a low point of... 18th December 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Fall in oil prices a net positive for most of Lat Am The drop in oil prices this month is clearly bad news for the region’s large net energy exporters, Colombia and Venezuela; a fiscal squeeze in on the cards in the former and the latter’s crisis will... 28th November 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Brazil and Argentina: reform hopes rising… for now The sharp rallies in the Argentine peso and Brazilian real reflect growing optimism that economic policymaking will improve in both countries, but markets seem to be looking through the political... 25th October 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Turmoil in Argentina underscores policy challenges The surprise resignation of Argentina’s central bank governor, Luis Caputo, and nationwide strikes – in protest against President Macri’s austerity plan – underscore the difficulty of fixing the... 25th September 2018 · 1 min read
